Title: Module 1 Introduction to Mitigation Under the UNFCCC
1Module 1Introduction to Mitigation Under the
UNFCCC
- The science of climate change.
- Definition and scope of mitigation
- Contributions of IPCC Working Group 3 (WG3) on
mitigation in the Third Assessment Report (TAR). - The UNFCCC Guidelines on mitigation assessment.
- The potential benefits of mitigation
- Interactions between mitigation and development
- Integrating mitigation and adaptation
2Module 1a
- The Science of Climate Change
3Our Atmosphere is Changing
- During the last century, the atmospheric
concentration of greenhouse gases and their
radiative forcing have continued to rise as a
result of human activities. - Global average surface temperatures have
increased by about 0.6 C. - Global average sea level has risen and ocean heat
content has increased. - The balance of evidence suggests a discernable
human influence on global climate (IPCC, SAR,
1995) - There is new and stronger evidence that most of
the warming observed over the last 50 years is
attributable to human activities (IPCC, TAR,
2001) - CO2 Concentrations and Global Average
Temperatures Will Continue to Rise
- Pre-industrial level 280 ppm
- Current level 360 ppm
- Level in 2100 700 ppm with large uncertainty
Source IPCC, 2001
4Some Expected Impacts
- Sea level projected to rise 0.09 to 0.88m by 2100
with significant regional variations. - Extreme weather events are projected to increase.
- Impacts on biodiversity generally negative.
- Socioeconomic systems could show net economic
benefits for small amounts of warming, but
potentially large negative impacts under greater
warming. - Increased water availability in some water-scarce
regions, but decreased water availability in many
water scarce regions. - Initially increased agricultural productivity in
some mid-latitude regions, but decreased in the
tropics and sub-tropics. - Significant disruptions of ecosystems from fire,
drought, pest infestation, species invasion, etc. - Changes in productivity and composition of
ecological systems, with coral reefs, boreal
forests, arctic and montane regions being
particularly vulnerable. - Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing
tens of millions of people. - Increased incidence of heat stress mortality, and
vector-borne diseases. - Some impacts effectively irreversible over many
generations (thermohaline circulation, Ice
sheets, migration of plant species).
Thermohaline disruption is uncertain, but ice
sheet melt and plant species migration are highly
probable.
5Developing Countries are the Most Vulnerable to
Climate Change
- Impacts are worse - already more flood and
drought prone and a large share of the economy is
in climate sensitive sectors. - Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of
financial, institutional and technological
capacity and access to knowledge - Impacts disproportionately upon the poorest
countries and the poorest people, exacerbating
inequities in health status and access to
adequate food, clean water and other resources.
6Adaptation
- Has the potential to reduce adverse effects of
climate change and can produce ancillary
benefits, but cannot prevent all damages. - Numerous adaptation options have been identified
that can reduce adverse and enhance beneficial
impacts of climate change. - Greater and more rapid climate change would pose
greater challenges for adaptation. - Lower levels of future GHG concentrations will
make the adaptation challenge easier.
7Stabilization of atmospheric CO2 will require
significant emissions reductions
Source IPCC
8Energy Sector CO2 Emissions in 2000
Source IEA
9Industrialized countries have emitted the most
anthropogenic CO2(Area proportional to
historical CO2 emissions from fossil fuel
combustion, 1900-1999)
Source WRI
10In the future, the share of global GHG emissions
from NA1 parties will increase
2035 total emission estimate 11.71 billion tons
of carbon
1995 total emissions 6.46 billion tons of carbon
Source OSTP
11Contributions of GHGs to Global Warming The
Last 100 Years
Contributions of GHGs to Global Warming The
1980s
Source CC Train, 1999
12Attributes of Key GHGs
Other GHGs include industrial gases (e.g.) SF6,
other HFCs, and indirect gases (water vapor, Nox,
etc.)
13 Agricultural Sector Contributes 20 of
global anthropogenic GHG emissions
50 of global methane emissions from enteric
fermentation and rice paddies
70 of global N20 emissions from artificial
fertilizers
5 of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel
consumption and biomass burning
14Solid Waste and Waste Water Disposal
1990 Emissions 50-80 Mt CH4 Methane emissions
are due to anaerobic digestion of organic
material in landfills and sewage effluent.
15Forest Sector Total CO2 Emissions from
Deforestation and Land-Use Changes 0.5-2.5 GtC
16Module 1b
- Definition and Scope of Mitigation Assessment
17Definitions
- Mitigation is defined as any anthropogenic
interventions that can either reduce the sources
of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (abatement) or
enhance their sinks (sequestration). - In the context of the UNFCCC, a mitigation
assessment is a national-level analysis of the
various technologies and practices that have the
capacity to mitigate climate change.
18Time-Frame
- Need to examine long-run opportunities for
reducing carbon sources or enhancing sinks,
bearing in mind the life-times of various
appliances and systems. - Rate of technological change is closely related
to the lifetime of capital stock.
Coal power 45 yrs
Motor vehicles 12 20 years
19Scope
- Includes energy demand and supply, forestry,
agriculture, rangelands and waste management. - Includes analysis of the impact of options on the
macro-economy. - Considers policies and programs that can
encourage adoption of mitigation technologies and
practices
20Module 1c
- The contributions of Working Group 3 (WG3) on
mitigation in the IPCC Third Assessment Report
(TAR)
21Background on WG 3 Mitigation
- The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) has three working groups - WG I to assess the Science of climate change
- WG II to assess Impacts, adaptation and
vulnerability - WG III to assess Mitigation of climate change
- WGIII was charged by the IPCC Plenary for the
Panels Third Assessment Report (TAR) to assess
the scientific, technical, environmental,
economic, and social aspects of the mitigation of
climate change.
22Major Topics Covered in WGIII Report on Mitigation
- Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios
- Technological and Economic Potential of
Mitigation Options - Technological and Economic Potential of Sinks
- Barriers, Opportunities, and Market Potential
- Policies, Measures, and Instruments
- Costing Methodologies
- Global, Regional and National Costs and Ancillary
Benefits - Sectoral Costs and Ancillary Benefits of
Mitigation - Decision Analytic Frameworks
- Gaps in Knowledge
23Chapter 2 Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Scenarios
and Implications
- This chapter reviews three scenario literatures
general mitigation scenarios produced since the
SAR, narrative-based scenarios found in the
general futures literature, and mitigation
scenarios based on the new SRES scenarios. - In addition, it provides recommendations for
future research, including the need for more
explicit analysis of policy instruments leading
to mitigation, inclusion of other GHGs than CO2,
and capacity building for scenario analyses in
developing countries.
24Chapter 2 GHG Emissions Scenarios
- Scenarios represent plausible future worlds with
particular economic, social and environmental
characteristics - Mitigation scenarios are usually defined as a
description and a quantified projection of how
GHG emissions can be reduced with respect to some
baseline scenario. - Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
Four scenario families. Each family has a
unifying theme in the form of a storyline or
narrative that describes future demographic,
social, economic, technological, and policy
trends
25Qualitative Directions for SRES Scenarios
26Chapter 3 Technological and Economic Potential
GHG Emissions Reductions
- Describes technologies and practices to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions in the end-use sectors
of the economy as well as through changes in
energy supply. - Concludes that while there is significant
potential for GHG emissions reductions in every
sector considered, appropriate policies is
required to realize the potential.
27Chapter 4 Options to Enhance, Maintain, and
Manage Carbon Sinks
- Assesses biological and geo-engineering
mitigation measures to capture carbon in
terrestrial ecosystems, focusing on the physical
mitigation potential, ecological and
environmental constraints, economics, and social
considerations. - Concludes that by 2010 mitigation in LULUCF
activities can lead to significant mitigation of
CO2 emissions while complementing other land
management objectives. Geo-engineering is not
ready for near-term application.
28Chapter 5 Barriers, Opportunities, and Market
Potential of Technologies and Practices
- Discusses the barriers that slow the transfer and
penetration of technologies and practices that
have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions. - Also discusses theories and models to understand
technological and social innovation and its
drivers and implications. - Topic addressed in Module 4.
29Chapter 6 Policies, Measures, and Instruments
- Examines the major types of policies and measures
that can be used to mitigate net GHG
concentrations in the atmosphere. - In addition to economic dimensions, political,
economic, legal, and institutional elements are
considered insofar as they are relevant to the
discussion of policies and measures.
30Chapter 7 Costing Methodologies
- Addresses methodological issues that arise in the
estimation of the monetary costs of climate
change. - The focus is on the correct assessment of the
costs of mitigation measures to reduce the
emissions of GHGs. - Includes discussion of technologically rich
bottom-up models and more aggregate top-down
models, which link the energy sector to the rest
of the economy. - Concludes with recommendations for further
research while contending that much progress has
been made since the SAR.
31Chapter 8 Global, Regional, and National Costs
and Ancillary Benefits of Mitigation
- Examines the literature on the costs of
greenhouse gas mitigation policies at the
national, regional, and global levels. - Net welfare gains or losses are reported,
including (when available) the ancillary benefits
of mitigation policies. - These studies employ the full range of analytical
tools described in Chapter 7. - Concludes that the cost estimates of stabilizing
atmospheric CO2 concentrations depend upon the
concentration stabilization target, the emissions
pathway to stabilization and the baseline
scenario assumed.
32Chapter 9 Sector Costs and Ancillary Benefits
of Mitigation
- Reviews the research on the cost implications and
ancillary benefits of mitigation strategies
across sectors, including - Top-down studies that capture general effects on
the economy and tend to consider price-driven
policies such as carbon taxes rather than
technology policies. - Bottom-up studies that examine technology-driven
options and financial cost-benefit analyses of
individual mitigation measures.
33Chapter 10 Decision-making Frameworks
- Provides a critical appraisal of policy-oriented
analyses and summarizes the emerging insights in
a form that allows policymakers to make informed
judgments. - Considers the special features of climate change
in the context of how they affect decision-making
in different frameworks. - Suggests that mitigation, adaptation, and
learning activities should be carefully crafted
over time but that mitigation action at any level
should start in the near term.
34Main WGIII ConclusionsNature of the Mitigation
Challenge
- Climate change is a problem with unique
characteristics - Global, long-term, involves complex interactions
between climatic, environmental, economic,
political, institutional, social, and
technological processes - Alternative development paths can result in very
different GHG emissions (e.g., SRES) - Climate change mitigation will both be affected
by, and have impacts on, broader socio-economic
policies and trends - Differences in distribution of resources are key
considerations (i.e., equity concerns) - Lower emissions scenarios require different
patterns of energy resource development
35Module 1d
- The UNFCCC Guidelines on Mitigation Assessment
36The United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC)
- Came into force in 1994 signed by over 150
countries. - Overall framework for intergovernmental efforts
to tackle climate change. - Recognizes that climate is affected by
anthropogenic emissions of GHGs. - Seeks stabilization of GHG concentrationsat a
level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system (Article 2) - Parties
- expected to take precautionary measures to
anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of
climate change and mitigate its adverse effects
(Article 3). - have common but differentiated responsibilities
based on their national circumstances. - gather and share information on GHG emissions,
national policies and best practices. - launch national strategies for addressing
greenhouse emissions and adapting to expected
impacts, including the provision of financial and
technological support to developing countries. - cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the
impacts of climate change. - The Conference of Parties (COP) is the highest
decision-making authority of the Convention.
37UNFCCC Parties
- Annex I members of OECD in 1992 economies in
transition (EIT). - Annex II OECD members of Annex I. Required to
provide financial resources to enable developing
countries to undertake emissions reduction
activities and to help them adapt to adverse
effects of climate change. Must also "take all
practicable steps" to promote development
transfer of environmentally friendly technologies
to EITs and developing countries. - Non-Annex I (NA1) are mostly developing
countries. - Certain countries recognized as being especially
vulnerable to climate change, including countries
with low-lying coastal areas and those prone to
desertification and drought. Others are more
vulnerable to the potential economic impacts of
climate change responses (e.g. fossil fuel
exporting nations). - The 48 least developed countries (LDCs), are
given special consideration under the Convention
on account of their limited capacity to respond
to climate change and adapt to its adverse
effects.
38Status of National Communications
- National communications have become an important
tool for bringing climate change concerns to the
attention of policy makers at the national level. - In 2002, COP8 in India adopted a set of new and
improved guidelines for national communications
(17/CP.8). - By July 2005, initial national communications had
been presented to the COP by 125 NA1 parties,
and second national communications had been
presented by 3 NA1 parties. - In the next phase of the Convention in which the
focus is increasingly on implementation, national
communications will become an important strategic
tool to help countries align their interests and
priorities to the overall goals of the Convention.
39Reporting Commitments
- Article 4, p.1, and Article 12, p.1, of the
convention provide for each Party to report to
the COP - information on its emissions by sources and
removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not
controlled by the Montreal Protocol (greenhouse
gas inventories) - national or, where appropriate, regional
programmes containing measures to mitigate, and
to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate
change (general description of steps taken or
envisaged by the Party to implement the
Convention) - any other information that the Party considers
relevant to the achievement of the objective of
the Convention.
40Guidelines for National Communications
Preparation for non-Annex I Parties
- Adopted in 2002, at COP8. Principal objectives
- to assist NA1 Parties in meeting their reporting
requirements - to encourage the presentation of information in a
consistent, transparent, comparable and flexible
manner - to facilitate the presentation of information on
support required for the preparation of national
communications - to serve as policy guidance to the operating
entity of the financial mechanism of the
Convention, for the timely provision of financial
support needed by NA1 Parties in order to fulfill
their reporting requirement - to ensure that the COP has sufficient information
to carry out its responsibility for assessing the
implementation of the Convention by Parties.
41Information to be Includedin NA1 Party National
Communications
- National inventory of anthropogenic emissions by
sources and removal by sinks of all greenhouse
gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol - A general description of steps taken or envisaged
by the Party to implement the Convention - Any other information that the Party considers
relevant to the achievement of the objective of
the Convention and suitable for inclusion in its
communication, including, if feasible, materials
relevant for calculations of global emission
trends.
42National Circumstances for NA1 Parties
- NA1 parties should provide a description of
national and regional development priorities,
objectives and circumstances, on the basis of
which they will address climate change and its
adverse impacts. - This may include information on geography,
climate and economy which may affect their
ability to deal with mitigating and adapting to
climate change, as well as information regarding
specific needs and concerns arising from the
adverse effects of climate change and/or the
impact of the implementation of response
measures. - NA1 parties are encouraged to provide a summary
of relevant information regarding their national
circumstances, as appropriate, in tabular form. - NA1 parties may provide a description of existing
institutional arrangements relevant to the
preparation of their national communications on a
continuous basis.
43Mitigation Guidelines (1)
- Each NA1 Party shall communicate to the COP a
general description of steps taken or envisaged
by the Party to implement the Convention, taking
into account its common but differentiated
responsibilities and its specific national and
regional development priorities, objectives and
circumstances. (25) - NA1 Parties may provide information on programmes
containing measures to mitigate climate change by
addressing anthropogenic emission by sources and
removals by sinks of all GHGs not controlled by
the Montreal Protocol, and measures to facilitate
adequate adaptation to climate change, following
the provisions in these guidelines. (26)
44Mitigation Guidelines (2)
- The extent to which developing country Parties
will effectively implement their commitment to
communicate this information will depend on the
effective implementation by developed country
Parties of their commitments under the Convention
relating to financial resources and transfer of
technology. (27) - Each Party shall provide to the COP information
on steps taken or envisaged for formulating,
implementing, publishing and regularly updating
national and, where appropriate, regional
programmes containing measures to mitigate
climate change and any other information they
consider to be relevant. (37)
45Methodological Approaches for Mitigation
- Based on national circumstances, NA1 Parties are
encouraged to use whatever methods are available
and appropriate in order to formulate and
prioritize programmes containing measures to
mitigate climate change this should be done
within the framework of sustainable development
objectives, which should include social, economic
and environmental factors. (38) - In their assessment of these programmes on
various sectors of the economy, NA1 Parties may
use the appropriate technical resources. (39) - Such as Technologies, Policies and Measures for
Mitigating Climate Change (IPCC Technical Paper
I) GHG Mitigation Assessment A Guidebook by the
US Country Studies Program Climate Change 2001
Mitigation (Contribution of Working Group III to
the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC).
46Reporting
- Based on national circumstances, NA1 Parties are
encouraged to provide, to the extent their
capacities allow, information on programmes and
measures implemented or planned which contribute
to mitigating climate change by addressing
anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals
by sinks of all GHGs not controlled by the
Montreal Protocol, including, as appropriate,
relevant information by key sectors on
methodologies, scenarios, results, measures and
institutional arrangements.
47Module 1e
- Potential Benefits of Mitigation Activities
48The Benefits of GHG Mitigation
- Primary GHG emissions abatement reducing global
climate change. - Co-benefits non-climate benefits explicitly
incorporated into the creation of GHG mitigation
policies. - Ancillary benefits side-effects that arise
subsequent to any proposed mitigation policy - E.g. reductions in local and regional air
pollution, associated with the reduction of
fossil fuels, and indirect effects on issues such
as transportation, agriculture, land use
practices, biodiversity preservation, employment,
income and fuel security.
49Mitigation Could Provide Local Benefits
- Local environmental protection.
- Poverty alleviation
- Reduce fossil fuel consumption
- Improve technological base.
- Increase in technological efficiency and
effectiveness, - Improvements in the security and availability of
power supply. - Reduction in road congestion with a shift from
private to public transport. - Increase in employment resulting from mitigation
projects. - Strengthening of institutional, systemic and
human capacity.
50Potential Levels and Scope
- Global, regional and country level.
- Short, medium and long term.
- Scope of the approach general (aggregated)
benefit and sector benefit - Identification of key benefit by sectors energy
and non energy.
51Some Key Challenges
- Identification, estimation and valuation of
mitigation benefits. - Relation between mitigation and sustainable
development
52Different Tools, Policies, Measures and
Instruments
- Global Kyoto Protocol.
- Country level emissions, carbon, or energy
taxes, subsidies, deposit-refund systems,
voluntary agreements, permits (tradable and
non-tradable), technology and performance
standards, product bans, direct government
spending, including RD investment. - Regional level tradable quotas, joint
implementation, clean development mechanism,
harmonized emissions, carbon or energy taxes,
quotas, international technology and product
standards, voluntary agreements, and direct
international transfers of financial resources
and technology.
53Module 1f
- Interactions between mitigation and development
54Development will be Undermined by Climate Change
- The Challenge
- Poverty 1.3 billion people live on less than 1
per day and 3 billion people on less than 2 per
day. Top 20 income group uses 86 of resources,
while bottom 20 uses under 1.3 - Food 800 million people malnourished today --
food production needs to double in the next 35
years - Water 1.3 billion people without clean water 2
billion without sanitation - Energy 2 billion people without electricity
- Environment 1.4 billion people exposed to
dangerous levels of outdoor pollution and even
larger number exposed to dangerous levels of
indoor air pollution and vector-borne diseases - Shelter many live in areas susceptible to civil
strife, environmental degradation, and natural
disasters
55Developing Countries are the Most Vulnerable to
Climate Change
- Impacts disproportionately on the poorest
countries and people, who have contributed least
to GHG emissions exacerbates inequities in
health status and access to adequate food, clean
water and other resources. - Net effects negative in most developing
countries, but mixed for developed countries for
warming up to a few ºC. - A warming of greater than a few ºC is likely to
result in net effects becoming negative for most
countries
56An integrated climate change-sustainable
development strategy is essential
Emerging Viewpoint
Source Adapted from Munasinghe, 2005
57Sustainable Development Domain
Climate Domain
Climate Change Stresses
Human and Natural Systems
Climate System
Adaptation
Adaptive Capacity
Feedbacks
Feedbacks
Non-climate Stresses
Econ.
Soc.
Envir.
Radiative Forcing
Feedbacks
Feedbacks
Different Socio-economic Development Paths
Atmospheric GHG Emission and Concentration
Scenarios
Feedbacks
Mitigative Capacity
Mitigation
Human Actions Causing GHG Emissions
Source Munasinghe, 2005
58CO2 and Development
20000
10000
5000
Indonesia
Source WBCSD 2005
OECD
Emissions by sector, kg CO2 per capita per year
(2001)
Non-OECD
59Goals of Energy Development
Energy sector development focuses on enhancing
- access to clean energy services
- 1.6 billion people do not consume any
electricity, and very little kerosene or LPG - Household energy consumption is 212 kgoe/cap
(compared to 651 kgoe/cap in industrialized
countries) about 25 comes from biomass used
traditionally - quality of the local environment
- Indoor air pollution kills 2 million women and
children prematurely - Only 15 of cities in developing countries have
acceptable urban air quality
60Energy and Poverty
- The poor typically spend a greater fraction of
their income on indispensable energy services,
such as cooking, than do the rich. - At the same time, they frequently forgo (or
compromise severely on) services like lighting
and space heating that require energy carriers
(e.g., electricity) and devices (e.g.,
fluorescent lights) to which they either dont
have access, or whose first costs tend to be
unaffordable.
61Goals of Energy Development
Energy sector development focuses on enhancing
- economic productivity
- Non-household energy intensity in developing
countries is 0.36 kgoe/-GDP (compared to 0.19
kgoe/-GDP in industrialized countries) - Competitiveness and opportunity costs of supply
expansion drive energy efficiency initiatives - security of energy supply
- Energy imports are a large fraction of exports
- Volatility in international prices leads to
macroeconomic instability
62Module 1g
- Integrating Mitigation and Adaptation
63Integrating Mitigation and Adaptation
- UNFCCC identifies two separate options for
addressing climate change mitigation and
adaptation. - There are increasing calls to better integrate
these two fields. - Because of long lag times in the climate system,
no mitigation efforts will be able to prevent
climate change. - Conversely, reliance on adaptation alone would
lead to a large magnitude of climate change, to
which it would be very expensive to adapt.
64Synergies
- Synergies exist when measures that control GHG
concentrations also reduce adverse climate
impacts. - E.g. urban tree planting provides both
sequestration and reduces heat stress. - Significant downside of placing too much focus on
seeking synergies - Implementation of synergistic measures can
involve great institutional complexity - Opportunities for synergistic measures are
probably very limited compared to the overall
challenges of each field. - Many synergistic measures may not be a wise
investment in terms of mitigation and adaptation
benefits. - Risks that activities will be labeled as both
mitigation and adaptation activities to make them
more attractive for funding thereby diminishing
overall effectiveness of how climate funds are
spent.
65Mixing Mitigation and Adaptation
- Seeking an optimal mix of activities may be a
poor approach given uncertainties about climate
change and the widely differing interests, values
and preferences of stakeholders. - Seeking robustness is probably a better approach
to decision making. - Mainstreaming is an emerging approach that
seeks to integrate policies and measures that
address climate change into ongoing sectoral and
development planning and decision making so as
ensure long-term sustainability and reduce
vulnerability to both current and future climate. - Currently, institutions are not well adapted to
support this type of integrated approach.
66Possible Topics for Discussion
- What is the proper role of mitigation in the
development plans of the least developed
countries? - What are the differences between pursuing
mitigation and adaptation policies? - What is the role of the U.N. National
Communications Support Programme (NCSP)?