Regional Visions: 50-Year Transportation Demand Modeling

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Regional Visions 50-Year Transportation Demand
Modeling

• Florida Model Task Force Meeting
• December 13, 2006

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2025 Florida Transportation Plan

• Long range goals and objectives for the State
  Transportation System
• FTP Objectives
• Enhance regional coordination -- Develop regional
  visions and action plans that integrate
  transportation, land use, economic, community and
  environmental systems to guide transportation
  investments. Focus attention on meeting mobility
  needs within regions that transcend traditional
  jurisdictional boundaries, and ensuring
  connectivity between SIS, regional, and local
  facilities.
• Set criteria for new hubs corridors Future
  Corridors -- Establish statewide criteria for
  identifying and developing new SIS facilities
  where such facilities are needed to connect the
  economic regions of the state, especially
  economically distressed areas, coordinated with
  regional and community visions

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2025 FTP Guidance

• Regional Coordination excerpts
• Regional visions should be developed for
  relatively large geographic areas throughout the
  state through a bottom up process in which all
  jurisdictions join one or more regions.
• Regional visions and action plans should be the
  result of close coordination and harmonization
  among currently separate planning processes
  related to transportation, land use, economic
  development, community development, and
  environmental stewardship.
• The regional planning process should result in
  key outcomes, including priorities for
  investments in a regional transportation network
  that includes multimodal options and reflects the
  balance between efficient regional travel and
  community and environmental resources with each
  region.

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Florida Regional Visioning Initiatives

• Projects complete, ongoing or planned
• Central Florida How Shall We Grow
• Southwest Florida Regional Stewardship Alliance
• Tampa Bay Vision 21
• Committee for a Sustainable Emerald Coast
• Northeast Florida Regional Vision for the Future
• Southeast Florida 2050 Regional Vision for a
  New Century
• Committee for a Sustainable Treasure Coast
• Completed, policy plan

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Central Florida How Shall We Grow

• Vision accommodating growth of 4 million
  residents by 2050
• Community input
• Areas for residential growth (density, character)
• Lands for preservation
• Transportation improvements (roadway, transit)
• Five scenarios for future growth
• Performance indicators
• FDOT District 5 conducting travel demand
  modeling, other analyses transportation impacts

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Central Florida How Shall We Grow

• Transportation indicators
• and of system miles in each network (roads,
  transit, bike/ped)
• and of trips by mode, miles traveled by mode
• of pop/employment within ¼ mile of transit
• Total daily, per capita per household vehicle
  miles and hours of travel
• Total daily, per capita per household hours of
  delay
• Average speed
• Total and daily cost of delay
• Auto crashes and fatalities

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Future Corridor Planning Process
Feasibility
ETDM/PDE
Concept
Corridor Feasibility Study
ETDM/PDE
High-Level Screening
Potential Corridors Identified for Feasibility
Study
Specific Alternatives Identified for Detailed
Analysis
Proposed Study Area Identified
Implementation
GO
GO
GO
STOP ?
STOP ?
STOP ?
27a
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Screening Criteria for Statewide Corridors

• Mobility/Connectivity
• System connectivity
• Gaps in existing system
• Intermodal connectivity
• Connectivity to SIS
• Connectivity to regional systems
• Congestion/delay/reliability
• Freight and visitor flows
• Emergency evacuation and response
• Military needs
• Safety
• Economic Competitiveness
• Access to statewide industry clusters
• Access to fast-growing areas
• Access to economically distressed areas
• Economic development benefits
• Economic disruptions

• Community Livability
• Land use and development
• Comprehensive planning and visioning
• Multi-use facilities
• Historic and archaeological resources
• Noise and aesthetics
• Degree of community support
• Environmental Stewardship
• Conservation lands
• Surface waters
• Wetlands
• Coastal and marine
• Threatened/endangered habitat
• Air quality
• Energy consumption

40a
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Initial Study Areas for Potential New Statewide
Corridors
56a
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Potential Multimodal Re-Use of Statewide
Corridors
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Considerations Forecasting Travel Demands for
50 Year Horizons

• Capture travel behavior changes?
• Use of computer/internet for telecommuting,
  shopping, education
• Impact of increases in fuel cost
• Increased population, density, congestion

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Other Vision Initiatives in US

• Contacts Portland Metro, Envision Utah, LA
  Compass Blueprint, Fregonese Calthorpe, Smart
  Mobility (Vermont)
• Discussion about possible model adjustments (what
  and how parameters might change)
• However, no agreement on any actual changes
• Model used to ID differences between scenarios,
  not absolute impacts as in MPO plans

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Potential Model Considerations in FL

• Changing household profiles
• Increasing incomes
• Downtown residential development trends
• Suburban and ex-urban development
• Vehicle availability
• Transit ridership changing
• Interaction of transportation and land use
  decisions

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Feedback Needed

• Develop potential guidelines/approaches for 50
  year modeling?
• Future research to support guidelines, model
  development needs?
• Linkage of regional vision/land use plans to
  FSUTMS?

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