MODELLING TRANSPORT DEMAND: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND OPPORTUNITIES

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FSUTMS-TransCAD
Making the Transition...
Florida Statewide Model Task Force November
12-13, 2003 Orlando, FL
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Outline
Recent Activities Initiatives
Short-term Model Conversion Process
Interim Standards and Medium-term Enhancements
Long-term Enhancements ? The New FSUTMS
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What Happened?

• Model Task Force reviewed transportation modeling
  software in Fall 2002-Spr 2003
• Acted upon advice provided by MTF Blue Ribbon
  Panel
• MTF formally adopted TransCAD as the new FSUTMS
  engine in May 2003
• First major transition in FSUTMS in more than two
  decades

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Recent Activities and Initiatives
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Software Purchase and Distribution

• One copy of TransCAD distributed free to all
  Florida public agencies (hardware key)
• Additional copies to public agencies provided at
  annual maintenance fee of 500 each
• Consultants/universities get TransCAD for annual
  maintenance fee of 995 each

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FSUTMS Training Classes

• Intensive training program by FDOT Central Office
• FSUTMS training workshops well attended
• August 25-29, 2003 Orlando
• Sept 8-12, 2003 Sunrise
• Sept 29-Oct 3, 2003 Tampa
• Nov 3-7, 2003 Daytona Beach
• Dec 8-12, 2003 Atlantic Beach
• Jan 26-30, 2004 Orlando
• Feb 23-26, 2004 Daytona Beach (tentative)
• April 5-8, 2004 Orlando (tentative)
• April 19-22, 2004 Orlando (tentative)
• May 3-7, 2004 Ft. Lauderdale (tentative)

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FSUTMS Training Classes
Attendee August (Maitland) September (Sunrise) October (Tampa) November (Daytona) Total
FDOT 5 6 1 2 14
MPO 7 10 12 2 31
Local Govt 9 4 4 0 17
Federal Govt 0 0 1 0 1
University 0 2 0 5 7
Consultant 12 6 15 19 52
Total 33 28 33 28 122
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FSUTMS-TransCAD

• FSUTMS-TransCAD contains several standard
  features
• Menu options for converting FSUTMS networks, data
  sets, and trip tables
• All Census 2000 data for Florida
• Florida highway network (Tiger) data and
  shapefiles
• Caliper developing comprehensive statewide model
  network and socio-economic data
• More to come

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Short-term Model Conversion
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Model Conversion Transition

• MTF has initiated process of converting models to
  FSUTMS-TransCAD
• Recently converted Gainesville model
• Sequence of model conversion governed by
• Availability of model from MPO/District
• Urgency of model conversion for LRTP update
• Level of complexity of model
• MPOs/Districts provide model to Caliper Caliper
  returns FSUTMS-TransCAD model

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Model Conversion in Progress

• Short-term conversion includes
• Use of floating point arithmetic (eliminate
  bucket rounding procedures of FSUTMS-Tranplan)
• Use of TransCAD gravity model Tranplan gravity
  model is slightly different
• Use of TransCAD transit skimming and assignment
  method that is most widely adopted
• Fixing or notifying MPO/District of any obvious
  errors that require minimal effort

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Model Conversion in Progress

• Caliper developed procedures to mimic Tranplan
• But TransCAD will give different answers results
  should be close to Tranplan, but will be
  different
• MPO/District will need to re-validate TransCAD
  model as part of short-term conversion process
• Caliper will provide support to MPO/District and
  consultant on converted model
• Bottomline Caliper conversion will include a few
  enhancements currently available in TransCAD
  MPO/District/Consultant will re-validate models

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FSUTMS-TransCAD
Making the Transition...
Interim Standards and Medium-term
Enhancements Thomas Rossi Cambridge Systematics,
Inc.
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Outline

• Developing Interim Standards and Enhancements
• Examples of Interim Standards and Enhancements
• MTF Committees in Action
• Making the Enhancements

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Developing Interim Standards and Enhancements

• Transition offers opportunity to make
  enhancements and establish new standards
• Need to identify enhancements and establish
  standards without slowing down conversion
• Will incorporate basic enhancements in short-term
  conversion process
• MTF to identify interim standards and
  enhancements for FSUTMS-TransCAD

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Examples of Interim Standardsand Enhancements

• FSUTMS User interface
• File naming conventions
• File/directory structure
• Model structure/logic (flowchart)
• Identifying TransCAD procedures to be used as
  standard/default methods
• Default model parameters/coefficients

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Examples of Interim Standardsand Enhancements
(continued)

• Input and output files (databases, networks, zone
  data)
• Database field names
• Network coding standards
• Standard GIS themes/templates
• Getting shapes into network
• Standard reports/outputs (e.g., HEVAL)

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User Interface

• Short-term conversion process will provide
  model-specific interface
• Need standard global FSUTMS interface for entire
  model stream in Florida
• MTF will define new standard global FSUTMS
  interface
• Define procedural interface (e.g., highway only,
  transit SPSP, etc.)?

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File Naming Conventions

• No longer limited in length of file names
• Take advantage of TransCAD capabilities
• MTF to provide guidance on naming conventions/
  standards
• Parts of a file name
• Standard File type
• Area/city name
• Year
• Alternative
• User/Program

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File Naming Conventions (continued)

• File naming protocol
• File name 8 characters (no spaces)
• Alternative 11 characters (4 parts)
• Suffix
• Alternative
• Area 3 characters
• Year 4 characters
• Alt 3 characters
• u/p 1 character (uuser supplied pprogram
  generated)
• Example TRIPGEN1_MIA2001A10u.sfx

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File/Directory Structure

• Need standard directory structure
• File types (input, output, report)
• Alternatives
• Multiple scenarios in same file?
• Which files should be stored permanently
• Key outputs (e.g., volumes, boardings, speeds)
• Intermediate files (e.g., skims, person trip
  tables by mode)

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Model Structure/Logic

• Short term No changes in model structure
• Long term Potential for changes
• Medium term Changes?
• Identify points at which user programs should be
  inserted

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Standard/Default FSUTMS Methods

• Algorithms for FSUTMS
• Trip distribution
• Transit path building
• Highway assignment
• Transit access (walk, auto)

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Default Model Parameters

• Existing FSUTMS parameters (trip rates, friction
  factors, mode choice coefficients, etc.) that
  could still be used in TransCAD
• Parameters for new TransCAD methods (trip
  distribution, transit path building, etc.)
• Convergence
• Parameters that could change (e.g. highway
  assignment)

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Input and Output Files

• Zonal data
• Single file
• Unlimited attributes
• Highway network (links, nodes)
• Transit routes

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Database Field Names

• Standardize for all models
• Short field names - understandable
• A model may not have every field in a database

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Network Coding Standards

• Need to define set of standards statewide
• Standard fields with consistent definitions (e.g.
  facility type, area type)
• Sufficiency of existing definitions

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Standard GIS Themes/Templates

• Develop standard templates for common mapping
  functions
• Standard color coding themes (could be used for
  user-generated maps)
• Statewide standard for projection system

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Getting Shapes into Networks

• Not necessarily part of short term conversion
  process
• Generally would require model revalidation
• Standard base map for Florida

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Standard Reports/Outputs

• FSUTMS has standard reports for validation,
  analysis
• Need to decide
• Which existing reports should be generated
• What new reports should be generated
• Report formats

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MTF Committees in Action

• Interim standards and enhancements very critical
  to FSUTMS-TransCAD evolution
• MTF committees will be put to work to help
  identify standards/enhancements by module
• Intent is to maximize use of TransCAD
  capabilities without slowing process down
• Process will yield blue print for interim
  standard FSUTMS-TransCAD

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Making the Enhancements

• Interim standards and enhancements developed
  concurrently with LRTP update
• MPO/District implements enhancements to converted
  TransCAD models
• Consultants assist MPO/District in process
• Caliper to provide technical support throughout
  process
• MTF to discuss, refine, and facilitate process

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FSUTMS-TransCAD
Making the Transition...
Long-term Enhancements Developing the New
FSUTMS Ram M. Pendyala University of South
Florida, Tampa
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Long-term Enhancements

• Developing vision for FSUTMS of the future
• TransCAD offers host of features and capabilities
  for potential implementation
• New FSUTMS will define many of the enhancements
  made by Caliper

FSUTMS
TransCAD
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Enhanced GIS Functionality

• Integrated transportation model GIS enterprise
• Greater geographic accuracy, resolution, and
  visualization
• Network development, coding, and editing
• Integration with third-party databases, e.g.,
  Census, CTPP, PUMS, InfoUSA, Reebie, etc.

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Transit Modeling and Analysis

• Transit route and stop coding
• Enhanced representation of transit access and
  egress
• Enhanced transit skimming and assignment methods
• Interface with tools developed by Public Transit
  Office (e.g., ITSUP, RTFAST, BEST, TLOS, INTDAS,
  FTIS)

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Time of Day Modeling

• Time of day modeling procedures being implemented
  in Florida
• Time of day factors and time of day choice models
  based on Florida survey data
• Particularly useful in the context of transit
  planning, scheduling, and ridership analysis

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New Modeling Paradigms

• Trip chaining and tour-based models of travel
  demand
• More complex activity-based models of travel
  behavior
• Microsimulation of households, persons, and tours
• Interface with FAMOS Florida Activity Mobility
  Simulator

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Methodological Enhancements

• Enhanced traffic assignment algorithms (e.g.,
  stochastic assignment)
• New mode choice model structures and estimation
  methods (e.g., mixed logit)
• Incorporation of vehicle ownership model
• Option for using destination choice models
• Enhanced model structure/logic/data flow
• Updated model coefficients/parameters

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Integration with Traffic Microsimulation

• TransModeler microsimulation tool
• Simulate movement of vehicles on multimodal
  network
• Visualize and analyze performance of network
  elements (e.g., corridors, intersections, etc.)

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Interface with IDAS and ITS Planning

• Modeling and planning for ITS applications
  gaining momentum
• Seamless interface with IDAS
• ITS modeling and planning would benefit from time
  of day modeling, traffic microsimulation, etc.

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Freight Modeling Methods

• Modeling movements of goods and services in urban
  areas
• New truck trip generation, distribution, and
  assignment methods/standards for FSUTMS
• Utilization of truck trip survey data collected
  in Florida

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Statewide Model Integration

• Integrating models across state including urban
  models, regional models, statewide models
• Seamless transition between areas and among
  layers of geographic hierarchy
• Develop and maintain data/model warehouse in state

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Defining FSUTMS of the Future

• Many core elements of FSUTMS
• What merits standardization in the long-term?
• What should the standards be? Should they vary by
  area, area type/size, etc.?
• What should the FSUTMS user interface look like?
• What software should FSUTMS seamlessly interface
  with (e.g., GIS-TM, ULAM, etc.)?

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Research on Long-term Vision

• Define long-term vision for FSUTMS-TransCAD
• Identify methods, procedures, features, and
  functionality for new FSUTMS-TransCAD
• Oversight and input to be provided by MTF and its
  committees
• Regular feedback from user community
• Close coordination with Caliper to implement
  vision

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Keeping the Spirit of FSUTMS

• All enhancements done in the spirit of keeping
  benefits of FSUTMS
• High level of standardization
• Consistency in modeling methods/procedures
• High level of technical support from Central
  Office and Caliper Corporation
• Ongoing training workshops
• Sharing of technical expertise through MTF
• Continuous improvement process

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Stay Involved

• Stay involved in FSUTMS enhancement and TransCAD
  transition process
• Attend Model Task Force meeting(s)
• Attend training workshops
• Welcome feedback and suggestions for a smooth and
  efficient transition

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FSUTMS-TransCAD
Making the Transition...