Regional Foresight in Europe: Rationales, Experiences and Outcomes

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Regional Foresight in Europe Rationales,
Experiences and Outcomes

• Workshop on Regional Foresight in Central
  Macedonia
• Thessaloniki, 11 April 2003
• Dr. Michael Keenan
• PREST, University of Manchester
• Michael.Keenan_at_man.ac.uk
• http//les1.man.ac.uk/PREST

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Outline

• Introducing PREST and the EFA
• Using the Practical Guide structure, present some
  of the elements that need to be considered before
  embarking upon a foresight exercise
• Illustrate these elements through real case study
  experiences in the EU
• Lessons?

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About PREST

• Institute of Manchester University with 20
  staff, 26 doctoral and 15 Masters students. Main
  areas of work include
• Science Technology Policy
• National, regional and EU policies, reform
  privatisation, academic-industry links
• Evaluation
• development practice e.g. EUREKA, EU Framework,
  COST, Human Frontiers

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About PREST (contd)

• Innovation Technology Management
• Innovation in services, knowledge management, IPR
  collaboration
• Foresight
• Central role in UK programme
• Feasibility study on Euro foresight, IPTS Futures
  projects, regional network (FOREN), four-country
  KS Foresight for EFL
• Bilateral assistance to more than 20 countries,
  incl. Germany, Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic,
  South Africa, Venezuela, Malaysia, Russia . . .
• Run Foresight Course every year
• Leading European Foresight Mapping EFA

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What is the EFA?

• Pilot programme of Foresight teaching and
  awareness raising
• Funded through ESTO, 12-month duration
• Aims
• To develop and nurture foresight competencies in
  the EU28
• To disseminate knowledge of real foresight
  practice
• To develop a community of practice

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What is the EFA doing?

• Two awareness-raising workshops
• IRC/IRE Network (Ljubljana, 3/4 March)
• JRC (Milan, 22/23 May)
• One training course
• Regional foresight (Milan, 26-28 May)
• One discussion forum
• Hellenic Presidency Foresight Conference
  (Ioannina, 16 May)
• For further info www.jrc.es/projects/foresightaca
  demy

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The Practical Guide

• Result of demand from regional actors in FOREN
  network (http//foren.jrc.es)
• Provides guidance on strategic choices in
  regional foresight
• But it is not a recipe book . . .
• Versions now (or shortly to be) available for all
  EU15 Member States (incl. UK and Greece) and some
  Candidate Countries (incl. Cyprus, Bulgaria, )

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Essential Character of Foresight

• Structured anticipation and projections of
  long-term social, economic and technological
  developments and needs.
• Interactive and participative methods of
  exploratory debate, analysis and study, involving
  a wide variety of stakeholders, are also
  characteristic of Foresight (as opposed to many
  traditional futures studies that tend to be the
  preserve of experts).
• These interactive approaches involve forging new
  social networks. Emphasis on the networking role
  varies across Foresight programmes. It is often
  taken to be equally, if not more, important than
  the more formal products such as reports and
  lists of action points.

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Essential Character of Foresight

• The formal products of Foresight go beyond the
  presentation of scenarios (however stimulating
  these may be), and beyond the preparation of
  plans. What is crucial is the elaboration of a
  guiding strategic vision, to which there can be a
  shared sense of commitment (achieved, in part,
  through the networking processes).
• This shared vision is not a utopia. There has to
  be explicit recognition and explication of the
  implications for present day decisions and
  actions.

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Elements and Case Studies

• Consider the following exercises
• Lombardy
• West Midlands
• Catalonia
• Grand Lyon
• Baltic STRING

• With respect to
• Background
• Scope (incl. coverage)
• Structure and Organisation
• Methodology
• Outputs and Outcomes

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Why do Foresight?

• Variable rationales. But some arguments for
  Regional Foresight include
• Growing importance of regional identities and and
  regions as economic units
• Regions often lack the inclusive and
  forward-looking institutions to cope with the
  profound changes they face
• Break-down barriers, articulate long-term
  visions, and explicate their present-day
  implications

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Case Background

• Challenges regions face and why Foresight is said
  to be needed
• Lombardy nat. exercise initiated by several
  regional organisations
• West Midlands nat. exercise RIS
• Catalonia positioning region (internally and
  externally),
• Grand Lyon continuation of futures tradition
  (but more socially responsive) initiated by
  influential mayor
• Baltic STRING coordination of sustainable
  growth and development strategies, reduction of
  misunderstandings

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Coverage

• About choosing areas / topics / problems to
  address
• Partly dependent upon conditions, especially
  starting point and desired outcomes
• Scope of world view?
• Horizontal integration?
• Rolling exercises

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Case Coverage

• West Midlands
• Medical technology
• Ceramics
• Engineering design
• Tourism and Leisure
• Creative industries

• Catalonia
• Demographic evolution
• Territorial planning
• Productive system
• Labour market and social protection
• Dynamics of Catalan society
• Geopolitical and institutional framework

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Case Coverage

• Grand Lyon 23 areas, including
• Regional economy
• Ageing population
• Future of work
• Violence Security
• Health
• Information Society
• Children and Youth
• Citizenship
• Hip-hop and emergent cultures

• Baltic STRING
• Business development
• Learning society
• Knowledge exchange
• Mobility of people
• Infrastructure and Transport
• Environment, Nature and Landscape
• Culture

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Time horizon

• Typically between 5-30 years
• Should be beyond normal planning horizons
• Will be dependent upon things like the issues to
  be considered, and the needs of strategy and
  decision making

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Resources
Finance
Cultural
Need to be thought about at every stage of a
Foresight exercise
Infrastructure
Human Resources
Political
Time
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Case Scope

• Target / objectives, time horizon, funding, etc.
• Lombardy identification of technological
  competitiveness of important industry sectors
  aid strategic planning of sponsors, 5-10 years,
  private funding
• West Midlands SME business planning, 5-10
  years, ERDF
• Catalonia broad (incl. politics, culture,
  etc.), 20 years, funded by reg. govt.
• Grand Lyon reduce social (and digital)
  disparities, more responsive local govt, 20
  years, funded by reg. govt.
• Baltic STRING develop a common strategic
  platform, reg. govt. plus others targeted,
  solutions to everyday problems, 10 years,
  INTERREG funding

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Organisational Features

• Some common organisational forms
• Project team, often using external help
• Steering committee
• Working groups and panels
• Meetings, workshops, conferences
• Who sets up all of these? When and how?
• Loose versus tight management? In other words,
  centralisation versus distributed management?

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Knowledge Management

• Challenge will largely depend upon scale (spatial
  and temporal) and organisational configuration of
  an exercise
• Vertical division of an exercise, e.g. into issue
  panels, demands attention be paid to
  cross-linkages and the bigger picture
• Horizontal division of an exercise into distinct
  phases demands that outputs are usefully
  deployed as inputs in later phases

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Case Structure Organisation

• Panels and forums established
• Lombardy 6 sectors, central research team
  supported by industry associations
• West Midlands SG, 5 sector panels, project team
• Catalonia lead working group, French
  consultants
• Grand Lyon dedicated unit at the heart of reg.
  govt., committee of wise ones, gt20 working
  groups, database
• Baltic STRING SG, project secretariat, thematic
  expert working groups, open forums

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Foresight methods

• Important criteria for choosing methods
• Participation
• Desired Outputs
• Resources (esp. time, money, and expertise)
• Quantitative/Qualitative data requirements
• Time horizon
• Methodological competence (often key factor)
• Suitability for combining with other methods
  (feeders and triangulation)
• Suitability for visualising the results

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Why are formal methods used?

• Aid visualisation of possible futures
• Systematic and transparent (if used properly)
• Can constitute mixed forums for interaction and
  communication between various actors
• Need for training and piloting?
• Use of process facilitators?

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Case Methodology

• Main approach taken
• Lombardy drivers, critical technologies,
  screening of firm strategies
• West Midlands SWOT, drivers, scenarios
• Catalonia system analysis to identify drivers,
  hypotheses, Delphi, global scenarios
• Grand Lyon meetings, open forums, in-depth
  interviews
• Baltic STRING drivers, scenarios, preferred
  vision

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Outputs (1)

• Tangible and intangible products associated with
  foresight
• Must often be designed with intervention
  strategy in mind (especially target audience and
  outcomes desired)
• Different methods produce different products

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Outputs (2)

• Examples of tangible products include
• Scenarios and Visions
• Baseline and benchmarking studies
• Critical technology lists
• Products should be attractive and marketed
  through, for example, reports, conferences, TV
  and radio, newspapers and journals, school and
  university curricula, etc.

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Outputs (3)

• But a key output should be the process benefits
  associated with TF, e.g.
• Networking and resultant horizontal linkages
• Commitment to guiding visions
• Adoption of long-term thinking and Foresight
  practices
• Perhaps the most desirable outcome is a
  Foresight Culture.
• Difficult to achieve - should be a long-term aim
• Can be facilitated (in part) through training,
  the production of methodological guides, and
  demonstrators of Foresights benefits

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Expected Outcomes

• Outcomes is a slippery concept
• Vary across time and space
• Challenge of attribution
• When thinking about implementation, we need to
  move away from simplistic linear policy models
• Evaluation issue technocratic and political
  agendas must be addressed
• Often a neglected topic when planning foresight
  activities

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Case Outputs Outcomes

• Products / processes and impacts
• Lombardy reg. govt. set up centres of
  excellence, banking group set up SME fund for TT
  activities, process benefits, continuation of
  exercise
• West Midlands SME Foresight Toolkit, 3000 SMEs
  advised, new jobs and investment, continuation of
  exercise
• Catalonia 24 debate seminars, highly-cited
  reference doc that introduced new vocabulary
• Grand Lyon 23 thematic reports and single doc
  for reg. govt., est. of a Development Council
  (gt300 people)
• Baltic STRING common vision and strategic
  action plan, lighthouse projects

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Case Lessons?

• Diversity in rationales, objectives and levels of
  participation
• Time horizons variable
• Methods quite similar (large emphasis on
  scenarios and visions) main differences
  dependent on levels of participation
• Products and processes follow
• Not much known of long-term impacts . . .
• The future?

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Some words of caution . . .

• Whilst there are some dependencies, it is very
  difficult to isolate simple relations between
  elements
• To exacerbate the challenge, possible choices for
  many elements are extremely versatile, e.g.
  scenario methods can be used in many different
  settings for many different purposes. Therefore,
  no recipe book is readily available, only
  guidance
• Resources (in their broadest sense) are the
  biggest determinant of the scale and scope (both
  spatial and temporal) of foresight
• Factors that are difficult to account for, e.g.
  personalities, institutional culture, etc. are
  often the key difference between success and
  failure

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Thank you!

• Workshop on Regional Foresight in Central
  Macedonia
• Thessaloniki, 11 April 2003
• Dr. Michael Keenan
• PREST, University of Manchester
• Michael.Keenan_at_man.ac.uk
• http//les1.man.ac.uk/PREST