???? ?-Sum Prime - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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???? ?-Sum Prime

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???? ??? ?????? ?? ????? ??????? ????? ?????? ????? ?????????, ?????? ?????? ... ????? ???? ?????? ?????? refinance ?????? ??????. ??????? ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: ???? ?-Sum Prime


1
????? ???? ????????
2
???? ???????
  • ????? ????
  • ??? ?????? ????????
  • ???? ?-Sum Prime
  • ??????? ?????
  • ?????? ?????
  • ?????? ?????
  • ????? ????? ????????

3
????? ????
  • ???? ??? ?????? ?? ????? ??????? ????? ??????
    ????? ?????????, ?????? ?????? ?????? ?? ????
    ?????? ?????? ???? ??? ???????? ???? ?????? ??.

???? ????? (Originator)
???? ????? (Originator)
??? ?????
?????
????? ?????
?????? ??"?
??? ???????
???? ??????? (SPV)
???? ??????? (Servicer)
???????
????? ???"?
??? ?????
4
??? ?????? ????????
  • ????? ????"?
  • ???? sub prime
  • ?????
  • ????? ????
  • ???? ??????? ????? ?????? ???? ?????? ????
    ???????? ??? ????, ????? ??? ?????? ???????.
  • ????? ???????? ???? ?????. ????? ???? ??????
    ?????? refinance ?????? ??????.
  • ???????
  • ??? ????????? ???????? ???? ????? ????? ????.
  • ????? ?? ????? ?????? ????????? ?????? ???????.
  • ???????
  • ?- 70 ???? ?????? ??????? ????? ?"? ????????
    ?????? ??????????.
  • ????? ???????? ????? ?????? ?????? ???? ??????
    ????? ????? ?????? ?????.

5
??? ?????? ????????, ????
  • ????? ????"?
  • ???? sub prime
  • ?????
  • Alt A ??????? ????? ???????? ????? ????
    ??-Prime. ???? ?????? ???? ??????? ????? ??????
    ?????? ????? ????? ????? ?????? ?? ?????.
  • Jumbo ?????? ????? ????? ????? ???????? ?????
    ????? ????????? (???? ?? 417,000 ).

6
?????? Sub Prime
  • ????? ????"?
  • ???? sub prime
  • ?????
  • ?????? ????? ????? ???? ???? ????? ?????? ????
    ??????? ????? ??? -
  • Credit (????? ?????)
  • Capacity (????? ????)
  • Collateral (???? ?????????)
  • ???? ??????? (????? ?????? ?????? ????? ??
    ?????? ????? ???)
  • ????? ????? (Floaters)
  • ??????? ???? (????? ????? ????? ????)
  • ?????? ????? (Negative amortization)
  • ????? ????????
  • ??????? ?????? ?????????

7
??????? ?????
  • ????? ????"?
  • ???? sub prime
  • ?????

8
?????? ?????
  • ????? ????"?
  • ???? sub prime
  • ?????
  • ????? ?-2 ????? ???? ???? ????? ?????.
  • ????? ?? 20- 10 ????? ?????.
  • ????? ????? ????? ????? (????? ??????).
  • ??????? ????????? ???????? ????? ?????? ?? ?? ??
    ?????? ???? ?? 386 ??????? ???? ?????? ???????.
    ??? ?????? ?????? ??????? ???????, ?? ?? ?-160
    ??????? ????.
  • ?????? Net Bank, New century, Northern rock.
  • ???? ???? ????? ????? ?????? ????????? ??????
    ???????.
  • ?? ?? ???? ??????? ?????? ?? ????? ?????????
    ????????, ????? ????? ??????.

9
?????? ??????? sub prime, ??? 2008
  • ????? ????"?
  • ???? sub prime
  • ?????

10
?????? ?????
  • ????? ????"?
  • ???? sub prime
  • ?????
  • ?????? ????? ?? 67 ???"? ????? ???????? sub
    prime ????? ???? 2006 ????? 29 ???? 2005.
  • ???"? ????? ???? 2007, ????? ??? ?-64.

11
????? ????? ????
  • ????? ????"?
  • ???? sub prime
  • ?????
  • ???? ??? ?? ????? ?????
  • ?? ???????? ????? ????? ????? ?????? (????,
    ????)?
  • ????? ????? ??? ??
  • ???? ??? ?? ?????? "?????" ?? "????".
  • ????? ????? ??????.
  • ????? ??????.
  • ????? ??? ?? ?????.

11
12
  • ????? ????"?
  • ???? sub prime
  • ?????

???? ????? ?? ???? ??????
  • ????? ?? ???? ????? -
  • Moodys Individual Loan Analysis
  • ???? ????? ?????? ??? ????? ?????? ?????? ????
    ??????? ?????? ????? ???? ?????-
  • ??? ?????? ????? ???? ??????? ?????? ?????? Aaa,
    ?? ???? ???????? ???? ??????? ??????.
  • ??? ???? ??????? ?????? ??? ?????? ????? ????????
    (???? ?????).
  • ?????? ???? ???? ????? ?? ???? ????? ?????
    (Expected Loss).

12
13
??????? ????
  • ????? ????"?
  • ???? sub prime
  • ?????
  • ????? ???? ??????? ?? ??? ??? (????? ????? ???
    ????????) ?????? ?????? ???????.
  • ??????? ???????? ????? ?????
  • ??????? ???? - ???, ???, ??? ??????, ????? ???
    ?????, ??? ?????-???????, DTI.
  • ??????? ??????- ???? ???????, ???? ???????, ?????
    ?????, ??? ?????, ??? ?????.
  • ??????? ???-????? LTV, ????? ????.
  • ????? ??????? ??????? ?????? ?????????, ??????
    ???????? ????.
  • ????? ???? ????????, ???? ?? ?????? ???? ?????.

14
????? ?????
  • ????? ????"?
  • ???? sub prime
  • ?????
  • ?????? ???????? ?? ????? ????
  • ????? LTV.
  • ????? ????? ???? ????.
  • ?????? ?????.
  • ????? ?????.
  • ????? ??????.

15
  • ????? ????"?
  • ???? sub prime
  • ?????

????? ?????, ????
  • ????? ????? ???? ????
  • ????? ?????? ?? ?????? ?????? ????? ????? ?? ??
    ??? ?????? ?????????? ?? ???? ???????.
  • ????? ???????? ????? ????? ??? ?????? ???? ????
    ????? ????? ???? (????? ???????).
  • 15????? ???? ?????? ????.
  • ??? ?????? - 36 ??????.
  • ?????? ????? - ????? ??????? ?????? ?????.
  • ????? ??????? ?????.

16
?????? ???? ??????? ??????
  • ????? ????"?
  • ???? sub prime
  • ?????
  • ???? ??????? ?????? ?? ??? ???? ?????? ??????
    ?????? ?? ????? ???????, ????? ??????????.
  • ?? ?????? ????????? ????? ??????? ?????? ???????
    ?????.
  • ?????? ???? ??????? ?? ???? -
  • ??? ???? ????? ??????? ???? ???????? ????????
    ??????.
  • ???? ??????? ???? ??? ??? ?????? ??? ?? ???
    ???? ????? ?? ?????? (????? ????, ???? ?????,
    ?????).
  • ??? ???? - ??? ????? ??? ????? ????? ???? (???
    ???????, ??????) ?????? ???? (????? ??????)
    ??????? ?????? ??????.
  • ??? ??????? ??????? ??????? ????? ???????? ????
    ??? (seasoning) ?????? ???????? ???? ??????. (??
    ????? ???? ???? ??? ???????? ???? ??????).

17
?????? ???? ??????? ??????, ????
  • ????? ????"?
  • ???? sub prime
  • ?????
  • ?????? ???? ???? ?? ???? -
  • ???????? ????? ??? ????? ???? ?-5,000 ?????
    ????????? ?????? ???? ??????? ???? (?????????
    ????? ?? ??? ??? HHI, ???? ????? ????? ????).
  • ???????? ????????? ??? ???? ???????? ???? ?????
    ?????????? ??????????.
  • ????? ?? ???? ????? ????? ?????? ?? ???????
    ??????, ???? ???????? ?????, ???? ?????? ???????.
  • ???? ?? ??????? ?????? ???? ?????? ?????? ??????
    Aaa.

18
????? ??????? ???????
  • ????? ????"?
  • ???? sub prime
  • ?????
  • ???? ???? RMBS ???????, ?????? ????? ???????
    ?????? ???-????????.
  • ??????? ?????? ???? ???? ????? ??????? ??? ?????
    ??????.
  • ????? ??????? ?????? ?????? ??????? ???????
    ????-????????
  • ????? ????? ?? ????.
  • ??? ????? ??????? ?????? ???? ????? ?? Aaa. (???
    ??????)
  • ??? ????? ?????? ?? ????.
  • ????? ???????? ?????? ?????? ????? ???? ?????? ??
    ???????.
  • ????? ?????? ??? ??????? ????? ???? ???-??????.

18
19
????? ??????? ???????, ????
  • ????? ????"?
  • ???? sub prime
  • ?????

????? ????? ????
????? ??? ?????
???? ?????? ?????? Aaa
???????
????? ????? ?????? Aaa
????? ????
19
20
???? ??????
  • ????? ????"?
  • ???? sub prime
  • ?????
  • ????????? ??????? ??? ?????? ?????? ??????
    ???????
  • ????? ??????.
  • ??????? ?????? ?????? ????? ?????, ??? ???????,
    ?????? ???????, ?????? ?????.
  • ??????? ??????????? ???? ?????? ????, ???
    ???????? ????????.
  • ???? ?????? ????? ????? ??????.
  • ?????? ????? ?????? ????? ??? ?????? ???????????,
    ????? ?????.

21
????? ????? ???"?
  • ????? ????"?
  • ???? sub prime
  • ?????
  • ????? ???????? ?? ??????? ??????.
  • ??? ????? ???? ?? ???????? ????-???????? - ?????
    ????? ????"? ??? ?????.
  • ????? ?? ???? ???"?, ??? ?????, ???????? ???????
    ?? ????? ????-?????.
  • ????? ?????
  • ????? ????? ??? ????? ????? ????.
  • ???"? ??????? ??? ????? ????? ????.
  • ??? ??????? ??? ?????? ?????? ?????? ????? ?????
    ????? ????? ?? ????'?.

21
22
???? ????? ??????
  • ????? ????"?
  • ???? sub prime
  • ?????
  • ???? ?????? ??????? ?? ?????.
  • ?? ????? ???? ????? ???? ??????? ??????.
  • ???? ???? ????
  • ??? ???????? ?????? - Assumption Volatility Score
  • ??? ????? ????? (??? ??? ??????).
  • ???? ?? ?????? ?????? ??????? ?????? ???????
    ????? ??????.
  • ??????? ?????????, ?????? ??????, ??????? ?????,
    ?????? ????? ???.
  • ????? ?????? ?????? - Loss Sensitivity
  • ???? ?? ?????? ?????? ?????? ?????? ????? ?????
    ???? ?????? ??????.
  • ???? ?????? ?? ?????? ???? ?? ????? ????? ?????
    ?? ?????? ?????? ?????? ???? ????.

23
?????? ??????? Avigail.k_at_midroog.co.il ???? !
23
24
??? ????? ????????, ???? ???
  • ????? ????"?
  • ???? sub prime
  • ?????
  • ??? ???? 2004 ???? ????? ????? ?????? ?? ???
    ?????????.
  • ???? 2006 ???? ???? ??????? ??-60.
  • ???? 2007, ????? ????? ????? ?? ?????????, ?-60
    ?-Q1 2007 ?-97 ?-Q1 2008.
  • ????
  • SIFMA-Securities Industry and Financial Markets
    Association

25
???? ????
  • ????? ????"?
  • ???? sub prime
  • ?????
  • ????? 2006-2007, ?????? ?????? ????? ?? ??????
    ?????? ?????? ??? 1969, ?????.
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