Challenges to Animal Health in the 21st Century

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Challenges to Animal Health in the 21st Century

• National Animal Health Program Planning
  WorkshopKansas City, Missouri
• September 20, 2005
• Lonnie J. KingDean, College of Veterinary
  MedicineMichigan State University
• Director, Office of Strategy and
  InnovationCenters for Disease Control and
  Prevention

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• The purpose of all public organizations is to
  create public value. Defining public value is a
  complex issue that involves multiple players with
  different views and perspectives.

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Anna Karenina Principle

• Happy families are all alike every unhappy
  family is unhappy in its own way.
• - Leon Tolstoy
• To be happy, families must solve a large number
  of complex problems. The same principle applies
  to government agencies.

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Mission
Public Value
Capacity
Authorization
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• The principal challenge for the 21st century is
  not just problem solving, but now managing
  dilemmas. All the problems are interconnected,
  which creates the dilemma that is further
  complicated by conflicting outside pressures.

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Animal Health at the Crossroads

• Animals are a huge national asset
• Convergence of human and animal health
• Globalization
• Restructuring and consolidation
• Socio-economic and community issues
• Changing threats and opportunities

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Animal Health at the Crossroads (continued)

• Scope, scale and implications are unprecedented
• Environment and ecosystems
• Research needs to be commensurate with needs
• Consumerism and social dimensions of agriculture
  production
• National education and preparedness strategies

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• Only a fool would make predictions especially
  about the future.
• ? Samuel Goldwyn

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Theory of Business Drucker

• Assumptions (1) Environment
• (2) Mission
• (3) Capacity

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Veterinary Medicines Opportunity Horizon At the
Intersections of Differences Lies the
Opportunity for Innovation
PublicHealth
Ecosystems
AnimalHealth
FoodSystems
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Not Meeting Challenges and Opportunities

• Public health
• Biomedical research
• Global food and fiber system
• Ecosystem management
• Food safety
• Trade enhancement

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The most serious challenge to veterinary medicine
is to reestablish its social responsibility.
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• Only the Paranoid Survive
• By Any Grove, CEO Intel

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Strategic Inflection Point

• There are crisis points that challenge the
  fundamentals of every organization and represent
  a point where opportunities are exploited or will
  signal the beginning of the end.
• Only the Paranoid Survive Andy Grove

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Strategic Inflection Points for Animal Agriculture

• Interdependency
• Globalization
• Convergence of human and animal health
• Strategic partnerships
• Science and technology
• Social, economic and human dimensions
• Restructuring of agriculture
• Disruptive and asymmetrical influences

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Interdependence Opportunities

• Public engagement
• Interdisciplinary research teams
• Appreciation of animal agriculture national
  asset
• Research interoperability and data sharing
• Meta-leadership

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Interdependence Threats

• Isolationism and disconnected to societal needs
• Loss of control over destiny
• Loss of relevance
• Shift of decision-making and influence

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Interdependence

• Our greatest challenge is our ability to
  reconcile our strong independence and individual
  freedoms with the reality of interdependence.

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Globalization Opportunities

• Unprecedented market share
• Livestock 2020 Global protein demand
• Global research architecture
• Risk-based agenda
• Glocalization

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Market Share vs. Opportunity Share

• ? 96 percent of all consumers outside U.S.
• ? 60 percent increase for meat for developing
  countries
• ? 8 billion people by 2020
• ? Shift of 1 to 2 billion people to middle class
• ? Improved transportation systems

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Livestock Revolution of 2020

• Population growth
• Creation of wealth and larger middle class
• Unprecedented demand for animal products
• Westernization of diets
• Role of developing vs. developed counties
• The next significant SIP?

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Globalization Threats

• 9/11 vs. 11/9 The World is Flat
• Foreign Animal Diseases (FAD), Bio- or
  Agroterrorism events
• Sanitary-Phytosanitary (SPS) and trade problems
• Biodistress accelerates
• Food security and safety
• Geopolitical forces dominate animal agriculture
• Climate change produces new threats

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Convergence of Human and Animal Health
Opportunities

• Animal agriculture as public health advocates
• Agriceutical industry
• Food and Health
• Redefining food as health promotants
• Understanding of zoonoses and disease emergence
• Animal agriculture integral to community health
• One Medicine Concept is reaffirmed

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The Changing Mind Set of Food-Animal Agriculture

• Rearing livestock and poultry
• Producing products and commodities
• Proactive Advocates
  of Public Health

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The New Agriculture
Health
Food
Medicine
Agriceutical System
Energy
Pharmaceuticals
Fiber
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Future of Food

• Shift
• From a necessary staple and sustenance
• To Products promoting and enhancing health,
  quality of life and productivity

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Examination of our contemporary challenges

• Confluence of Human and Animal Health
• 3 epidemiologic eras
• EID, zoonoses, bioterrorism, agroterrorism,
  antimicrobial resistance
• 75 of EID are zoonotic
• 80 of select agents are zoonotic
• Review of CDCs most significant global epidemics
• Chronic disease with infectious etiologies
• New challenges are unprecedented in public health

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The Perfect Storm? Sebastian Junger

• an ocean tempest due to a rare combination of
  factors and circumstances that might occur every
  century

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The Microbial Perfect Storm

• Due to special combinations and circumstances
• Relatively common occurrence
• Doesnt dissipate, but may perpetuate or
  accelerate
• Convergence model

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WHO Map on World Emerging Diseases
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CDCs Most Significant Global Epidemics Over the
Last Decade

• 1993 Hanta virus
• 1994 Plague (India)
• Ebola virus (Zaire)
• 1996 New Variant of CJD (UK)
• H5N1 influenza (Hong Kong)

• 1998 Nipah virus (Malaysia)
• 1999 West Nile
• 2000 Rift Valley Fever
• 2001 Anthrax
• 2002 Norwalk-like viruses
• 2003 - SARS

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One World ? One Health ? One Medicine
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Convergence of Human and Animal Health Threats

• Public health controls agenda
• Global epidemic or pandemics
• Acceleration of emerging zoonoses
• Transboundary diseases continue unabated
• Antimicrobial resistant pathogens increase
• Factors of emergence expand

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Strategic Partnerships Opportunities

• Benefits of public private partnering
• Identification and resolution of complex problems
• Leverage private research findings
• Med - Vet - Net relationships

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Strategic Partnerships Threats

• Fragmentation
• Key contemporary problems are unresolved
• Lack of perspective and relevance

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• The scale and complexity of animal and human
  medical problems demand that scientists move
  beyond the confines of their own disciplines and
  explore new organizational models for team
  science.

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• The problem with the future is not that it is
  unknowable. The problem with the future is that
  it is different. If you are not able to think
  differently, the future will always arrive as a
  surprise.

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Science and Technology Opportunities

• Breakthroughs lead to new discovery,
  knowledgeand application
• Large-scale science projects
• Ecology of health
• Informatics
• Improved disease detection, diagnosis,
  surveillance and recovery
• Discovery of what we know we dont know
• Unprecedented protection, prevention and
  productivity
• Context awareness, animal ID and pervasive
  computing

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New Pathways to Discover

• Bioinformatics
• Computational biology
• Nano Medicine
• Genomics

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Focal point
Aware Contexts the environment wakes up
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Context-aware environments

• Semantic Processing. Emergent processes for
  constructing meaning from data and metadata that
  will allow connected, sensing objects to respond
  to their environment intelligently.

• Material Sensing. Sensors and actuators in all
  kinds of materials that will mimic the ability to
  see, hear, smell, touch and taste the world and
  record and respond to these sensations.

Wireless Connectivity. From cell phones and
Wi-Fi/WIMAX devices to Bluetooth, RFID tags, and
self-configuring sensor networks, a host of
technologies will link people, places and
objects, either close up or at a distance.
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• The emergence of new insights by re-examining and
  re-connecting disparate pieces of data, studies
  and networks.

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Land UseWaste Management Environmental
Quality Ecosystem Health
CEIDBio TerrorismDiagnostic SurveillanceZoonose
s
Food Security Food Safety Food Health
Human Animal BondComparative Medicine Program
Population MedicineConservation
Medicine Wildlife Management
Diseases Biodiversity Agro Terrorism
Public Health
Ecosystems
Environmental HealthWater qualityRenewable
food-animal systems
Animal Health
Food
Sustainable food-animal systemsConservationAnima
l food contaminatesGMOs
Chronic diseaseNutritionObesityIntegrative
ToxicologyFactors of Disease EmergenceFood as
Health PromotantsFood as Medicine
Bio Engineered FoodAntimicrobial
Resistance Global Food Production SystemsAnimal
Welfare and Well-being
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Science and Technology Threats

• Lack of public trust over biotechnology
• Public policy and politics become anti-science
• Precautionary principle for trade decisions
• Risk communication incompetency
• Lack of resources and investment to use new
  science

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Socio-Economic and Human Dimensions
Opportunities

• Environmental and land use improvements
• Breakthroughs in animal welfare, conservation and
  biodiversity
• Sustainable and profitable production systems
• Rebuilding the public trust
• Enhancement of agricultural communities
• Animal agriculture regains a social conscience

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Winds of Change

• ? Large production systems
• ? Political clout
• ? Land use
• ? Standards for animal well-being
• ? Sustainable production
• ? Global marketplace
• ? Consumerism
• ? Value added products
• ? Public relations

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Social Acceptability of Food

• ? Environment
• ? Conservation
• ? Animal well-being and welfare
• ? Impact on small producers and communities

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Ecosystem
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Socio-Economics and Human Dimensions Threats

• Agriculture is viewed as part of the problem and
  not part of the solution
• Retailers, consumers and processors dictate
  animal production practices
• Major increases in global protein production
  shift overseas
• Regulatory environment not conducive for
  expansion of U.S. production

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• Key challenges reinventing itself and
  reinventing its industry.
• An organization that cant re-imagine its deepest
  sense of what it is, what it does, and how it
  competes and operates will soon be rendered
  obsolete.

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• There is an enormous danger in viewing what is
  changing through the lens of what already is.

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Disruptive and Asymmetrical Events Opportunities

• Positioning animal agricultural research
• Thriving in VUCA environment
• Seeing Whats Next driving public innovation
• Scenario planning and plausible futures
• Building new capacity and resources

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Risk
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If a forest is dense dry enough

• Worldwide, 25 people/second cross national
  borders
• Increasingly densely connected network
• Lessons from monocultures

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Health is a filter for purchasing decisions
( of respondents that believe health benefits
are somewhat or very important when making
purchases in )   Food 92 Personal cleaning
products 82 Home care products 74 Health and
beauty aids 72 Home care appliances 64 Clothing
or shoes 62 Home materials 62 Automobiles
55 Entertainment 48 Personal
electronics 44 Travel or vacation packages
42 Things for your yard or outdoor
space 41 For your home office 40    
Source Institute for the Future, Health and
Nutrition Online Survey, 2003.
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Bioterrorism Biodefense Agroterrorism
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H5N1 in Southeast Asia

• 10 countries involved
• 5 countries with H5N1 human cases
• Complex dynamics industrial commercial (20)
  small commercial (supply live-bird markets
  10) backyard flocks, migrating waterfowl, duck
  production (commercial, local and associated with
  riceproduction), hogs interspersed among these
  populations
• Uneven practices vaccination, surveillance,
  laboratory capability, disease reporting,
  anti-virals, regulations, biosecurity, local
  markets and cooperation withpublic health

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Disruptive and Asymmetrical Events Threats

• Avian influenza pandemic
• Bio- or agroterrorism occurrence
• Progressive vulnerability
• Permanent market changes
• Lack of preparedness and planning
• No built-in flexibility and adaptiveness
• Ineffective biosecurity programs

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• Non-linear innovation requires an ongoing action
  to escape the limitations of precedent and
  imagine entirely novel solutions to customer
  (public) needs.

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Restructuring Animal Agriculture Opportunities

• Optimizing production vs. maximizing
• Reducing disease susceptibility
• Creating new role and niche for small farmers and
  communities
• Animal well-being improvement within profitable
  production systems

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Eradication
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We must stop trying to figure what to do by
looking at what we have always done and focus on
what is truly needed and possible.
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Emerging Infectious Diseases
Translocation
Encroachment Introduction Spill over Spill
back
Human encroachment Ex situ contact Ecological
manipulation
Wildlife EID
Domestic Animal EID
Human EID
Global travel Urbanization Biomedical manipulation
Agricultural Intensification
Technology and Industry
Dasazak P. et.al. Science 2000 287443
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Restructuring Animal Agriculture Threats

• Genetic and geographic species vulnerability
• Lack of sustainability of U.S. production
• Environment degradation
• Endemic, exotic and emerging diseases expand
• Not meeting changing needs of differentiated
  producers

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Rapidly Increasing Human Population

• 6.1 Billion people in 2000
• 9.4 to 11.2 Billion in 2050

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Lessons Learned for Agriculture

• Not necessarily in charge of your own destiny
• Its both local and global glocalization
• Unprecedented external forces
• Agriculturalists as advocates for public health
• Research supports program but can lead change
• Public Private Partnerships are critical
• 21st century competency is collaboration
• People are progressively taking charge of their
  health and well-being
• Definitions of public health and animal health
  are similar
• Nature of risks is changing
• Positioning organizations vs. strict pathways

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• Organizations fail to create the future not
  because they fail to predict it,but because they
  fail to imagine it.

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• The goal is not to speculate on what might
  happen, but to imagine what you can actually make
  happen.