PowerPointPrsentation

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The case of Eduard Brückner solid climate
research but unexpected social and technological
developments. Hans von Storch Nico Stehr
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• Overview
• Eduard Brückner
• How constant is todays climate?
• Debate about climate change
• Practical importance of climate fluctuations
• Conclusions
• Brückner-Award 2003

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Eduard Brückner
Born July 29, 1863 in Jena, Germany, he died at
the age of 65 in l927 in Vienna, Austria. He
studied at the universities of Dorpat (now
Tartu, Estonia), Dresden, and Munich and
completed his doctorate under Albrecht Penck in
Munich with a dissertation on the ice fields in
the Salzach region in Austria. On the strength of
his dissertation, be was appointed professor of
geography at the University of Bern. He left
Switzerland in 1904 for two years at the
University of Halle in Germany and finally moved
to the University of Vienna. Brückner in 1890
published the first extensive book-length
discussion of climate fluctuations in "historical
times". He credits the head of the Bavarian
meteorological services, C. Lang, with the
discovery of decadal scale climate variability in
a study of the climate of the Alps. Also
interesting are his articles on the social
consequences arising from the climate
fluctuations, such as migration patterns, or on
harvests, the balance of trade of countries and
shifts in the political predominance of nations.
Brückner's methods are mainly limited to the
exploratory statistical analysis of time series
in combination with what might be called common
sense. He is unfamiliar with dynamical arguments
(for instance, concerning the geostrophic wind)
and he was unaware of theories concerning the
general circulation of the atmosphere.
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Inwieweit ist das heutige Klima konstant?How
constant is todays climate? Verhandlungen des
VIII Deutsche Geographentages, Berlin 1889 The
graphical charts are based on observations from a
total of 111 meteorological stations. The lustra
averages of rainfall were determined for each
station and expressed in percentages of the
thirty-year mean of 1851 - 80 the averages of
each country based on data from several stations
were then smoothed according to the following
formula (a2bc)/4. The curves of the chart
give a clearer picture of the data trend. A rise
and fall of the curve by one increment refers to
an increase and decrease of rain by 5. The
distance between the top and the bottom of each
curve shows the amplitude of the variation, in
relative not in absolute terms. The wider the
gap, the greater the difference between the
maximum and minimum amount of rainfall.
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• Stations with precipitation data available to
  Brückner
• Scotland, 16 stations (Arbroath, Laurick Castle,
  Loch Leven Sluice, Northesk Reservoir, Glencrose,
  Swanton, Fernielaw, Edingburgh, Inveresk,
  Haddington, Culloden, Sandwich, Arrdaroach,
  Castle Toward, Cameron House and Bothwell
  Castle).
• England, 9 stations(Chillgrove, Nash Mills,
  Oxford, Exeter, Orleton, Podehale, Boston, Bolton
  and Kendal).
• Northern France, 11 stations(Rouen, Paris,
  Vendôme, Pannetière, La Collancelle, Clamecy,
  Avallon, Laroche, Montbard, Poully and Dijon).
• Northern Germany, 21 stations (Kleve, Trier,
  Köln, Boppard, Gütersloh, Frankfurt a. M.,
  Gießen, Bremen, Kiel, Heiligenstadt, Torgau,
  Dresden, Stettin, Berlin, Küstrin, Frankfurt a.
  O., Posen, Görlitz, Breslau, Königsberg I. Pr.
  and Tilsit).
• Austria-Hungary, 8 stations (Bodenbach, Prague,
  Deutschbrod, Lemberg, Kremsmünster, Klagenfurt,
  Vienna, and Hermannstadt).
• West Russia, 6 stations (Helsingfors, St.
  Petersburg, Riga, Warschau, Moskau and Kiew).
• East Russia, 8 stations (Lugan, Simferopol,
  Astrachan, Baku, Tiflis, Bogoslows,
  Jekatherinenburg and Slatoust).

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• West Sibiria, 1 station (Barnaul).
• East of Sibiria, 3 stations(Nertschinsk,
  Nikolajewsk/Amur and Peking).
• United States, North America, Interior, 9
  stations (Toronto/Ont., Milwaukee/Wis.,
  Detroit/Mich., Madison/Jo., Steubenville/Ohio,
  Marietta/Ohio, Cincinatti/Ohio, Leavenworth/Ka.
  and St. Louis/Miss.).
• Central Italy, 7 stations (Parma, Modena,
  Bologna, Genua, Florence, Siena and Rome).
• India, 4 stations (Madras, Calcutta, Jablapur
  and Bombay).
• Mauritius, 1 station (S. Louis,
  Alfred-Observatorium.)
• Australia, 7 stations (Adelaide, Bathurst,
  Bukelong, Deniliquin, Goulburn, Melbourne and
  Sydney).

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Number of severe winters in a series of 20 winters
Klimaschankungen seit 1700. E.D. Hölzel,Wien,
1890
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We were able to identify general variations of
the climate. At first glance it may seem unusual
that these variations had escaped scientific
scrutiny to this day. However, there has been
speculation about them before every now and
then, based on unusual sightings at some source
or body of water the view emerged in publications
that the climate of certain locations, their
rainfall in particular, was probably subject to
periodic changes (e.g., Hann for the area of the
Caspian Sea, Schweinfurth for parts of the
Mediterranean countries, and most of all Fritz
for many areas on the globe). The universal
occurrence of the phenomenon, its global
importance and simultaneous course could by
strictly meteorological standards not be verified
to this date, before a large number of
meteorological stations had recorded the dry
period of the 60s and the wet period around
1880. These general climatic variations are the
key to the prevalent great confusion about the
issue of climate changes, which we attempted to
describe at the beginning they are the
explanation for the fact that such contradictory
opinions could exist side by side the climate
changes over time first in one direction and,
then again, in another the climate fluctuates
and with it fluctuate rivers, lakes and
glaciers. Inwieweit ist das heutige Klima
konstant? Verhandlungen des VIII Deutsche
Geographentages, Berlin 1889
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Debate about climate change
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Very old and wide-spread is the opinion that
forests have an important impact on rainfall. And
indeed, a priori, this seems quite likely.
First of all forests are natural barriers to
wind-driven air masses, which are then, as when
encountering hills and mountains, forced to rise.
No matter how light this upward drift may be, in
theory it will have to lead to more condensation
at its windward side. But the forests influence
is also felt in the fact that the air above stays
relatively humid. Forests slow down the swift
runoff of the rainwater and store the water in
the ground which is then evaporated back into the
air through the tree tops. This process again
must bring about an increase in precipitation
above the forest, the more so as because of the
strong friction between wind and forest surface
and the resulting delay in air flow the moist air
tends to stagnate above the forest. If forests
enhance the amount and frequency of precipitation
simply by being there, deforestation as part of
agricultural expansion everywhere, must
necessarily result in less rainfall and more
frequent droughts. This view is most poignantly
expressed by the saying Man walks the earth and
desert follows his steps!
Klimaschankungen seit 1700. E.D. Hölzel,Wien,
1890
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Perhaps no other area on earth has been mentioned
more often in connection with the effects of
deforestation on rainfall than the regions of the
Mediterranean Sea, and the increasingly drier
climate since pre-historic times which were
interpreted as a general phenomenon, has been
attributed more frequently to mans localised
destructive efforts of turning woodland into
arable land. And indeed, if we compare the
previously prosperous cultural life along the
eastern shores of the Mediterranean Sea with the
Orientals bare existence in those areas today,
we are struck by the tremendous cultural decline
and are only too readily inclined to see its
causes in what saps our own energy upon arrival
in the orient the scorching dry heat. To
todays cultural leaders who live in the cool,
wet northern hemisphere it seems inconceivable
that the blossoming antique culture could have
prospered under the present climatic conditions
of the orient the climate must have grown warmer
and dryer since antiquity. Consequently, the
clear-cutting of forests carried out in these
regions since ancient times offers a convenient
explanation man has destroyed his own culture by
destroying the forests and has devastated the
land, on which he is now left with a meagre
existence. A comparison between descriptions of
the landscape as it used to be and as it is today
appears to confirm this situation. But it was
often overlooked that in antique times the
descriptions of the subtropical environment were
done by its inhabitants while todays scientific
efforts take mainly place in the temperate
climate zones of Europe. The inhabitant of a
southern country had to see the same phenomena
with different eyes and painted them in different
colours than the inhabitant north of the Alps.
Klimaschankungen seit 1700. E.D. Hölzel,Wien,
1890
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It is not surprising that under such
circumstances the issue of a link between forests
and climate has now and then been addressed by
governments. Lately, the Italian government has
been paying special attention to reforestation in
Italy and its expected improvement of the
climate. Father Denza emphasises the goal of such
replanting efforts with these few words It must
be prevented that periods of heavy rainfall
alternate with droughts. It was often believed
that the climate in Germany had improved since
the early ages, resulting in less cloud cover and
precipitation from increasing deforestation. And,
in fact, a comparison of the rather gloomy
description of Germania, as for instance given
by Tacitus, with the Germany of today seemed to
point to a climate change it was not taken into
consideration though that this Romans portrayal,
naturally, had to be subjectively distorted. But
even in recent times multiple efforts have been
made to prove a link between changes in the
climate and deforestation for parts of Central
Europe. Van Bebber expresses views along this
line in his publication on rainfall in Germany,
and so does Studnika for Bohemia. According to
Wessely, in Hungary the climate of the steppe has
been gradually advancing since the lifetime of
Maria Theresia. In his opinion, resolute
reforestation measures alone promise help in
preventing the impending drought.
Klimaschankungen seit 1700. E.D. Hölzel,Wien,
1890
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In 1836 Rivière advocated the theory of
deforestation for parts of southern France,
namely the Vendée, the Provence, and particularly
the Départment du Var, at the Academy in Paris
frost damage followed by the clearing of olive
tree plantations has presumably caused a
considerable reduction in rainfall and dried-up
springs in the years from 1821 to 22. A similar
situation exists in the former Poitou and the
Department of the lower Charente according to
Fleuriau de Bellevue. Actually, the question of
climate change due to destruction of forests has
been raised in France many times, i.e. in 1858 by
Ladoucette, who pointed out before the French
Chamber of Deputies that the climate of the
Départements Pyrénées Orientales and the Hérault
had turned dryer and warmer after the destruction
of forests. Because of these reports the French
legislature took a serious look at the subject of
reforestation.
Klimaschankungen seit 1700. E.D. Hölzel,Wien,
1890
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In the Unites States deforestation plays an
important role as well and is seen as the cause
for a reduction in rainfall, which is believed to
have been observed in the New England States and
also in the Pacific States F. B. Hough in his
capacity as committee chairman of the American
Association for Advancement of Science demands
decisive steps to extend woodland in order to
counteract the increasing drought. In 1873,
in Vienna, the Congress for Agriculture and
Forestry discussed the problem in detail and
when the Prussian house of representatives
ordered a special commission to examine a
proposed law pertaining to the preservation and
implementation of forests for safeguarding, it
pointed out that the steady decrease in the water
levels of Prussian rivers was one of the most
serious consequences of deforestation only to be
rectified by reforestation programs. It is worth
mentioning that at the same time or only a few
years earlier the same concerns were raised in
Russia as well and governmental circles
reconsidered the issue of deforestation.
Klimaschankungen seit 1700. E.D. Hölzel,Wien,
1890
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Practical importance of climate fluctuations.
Are climate variations so significant that they
are of practical impact? Indeed they are.
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In dry areas in particular where water is
notoriously scarce the hydrographic conditions
change dramatically during periods of climatic
variations. Lakes disappear during dry periods
and reappear during wet ones, as for instance
Lake George in New South Whales which in 1820 and
again in 1876, and to a lesser extent in 1850,
used to be a large lake of 12 to 18 kilometres in
length, 10 kilometres in width, and 5 to 8 meters
in depth, yet disappeared completely in the dry
periods in between or some central African lakes
such as the Tshad, Tanganyika and Nyassa, which
at times rise so high that their overflowing
waters create an outlet lasting for some years
and which then lose this outlet again when the
dry period begins. Rivers and creeks dry out for
a full decade swamps dry up and reappear in the
next wet period. Consequently climatic
variations deeply affect human life. River
navigation to a great extent depends on the
amount of water in the river bed which determines
its depth. In those dry years around 1830 and
1860 shipping problems increased and soon a lot
of speculation began about the possible cause of
the lower river-water levels. In most cases the
increasing practice of deforestation was found to
be the source. Now we know better it is because
of climatic changes. Another way in which
temperature variations are affecting traffic is
through the length of time of the rivers
freeze-up. For example, during the cold spill
from 18061820 the Newa and the harbor of St.
Petersburg remained blocked by ice for more than
three weeks longer than they did during the warm
period from 18211835. This means that during
cold years harbors in a more westerly location
and with shorter closure times handle part of St.
Petersburgs shipping traffic which they lose
again during warm periods. Thus certain changes
in shipping traffic go hand in hand with climate
changes.
Klimaschankungen seit 1700. E.D. Hölzel,Wien,
1890
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Klimaschankungen seit 1700. E.D. Hölzel,Wien,
1890
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Der Einfluß der Klimaschwankungen auf die
Ernteerträge und Getreidepreise in
EuropaInfluence of climate variability on
harvest and grain prices in Europe. Geographische
Zeitschrift, 1895
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Klimaschwankungen und VölkerwanderungenClimate
variability and mass migration Vortrag
Kaiserliche Akademie der Wissenschaftern, Wien
1912
Variability of Rainfall in Relation to the Grain
Crop in Prussia The Grain Crop (WZ Wheat Crop,
RO Rye Crop) is in percentages of an average
crop, i.e. in deviation from a multi-year mean (
1 indicator 5 deviation) rainfall (R) is also
in deviations () from the mean (1 indicator
4).
Variability of Rainfall and Wheat Prices in
England Rainfall (R) is indicated in deviations
from mean (percentages) (1 2.5), the annual
average wheat price (W) in Shillings per Imp.
Quarter (1 2 sh.).
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Variability of Rainfall and Emigration from the
German Empire to the United States The curves are
based on five-year totals. Rainfall is in
deviations (percentages) from the multi-year
mean. Emigration to the United States is in
10,000.
Variability of Rainfall in the United States and
Western Europe and the Total Number of Immigrants
to the U.S. and from Britain. The curves are
based on five year totals. The number of
immigrants is given in 10,000, rainfall in
deviation (percentages) from the multi-year
mean..
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CONCLUSIONS Our discussion of climate
variability and climate change at the end of the
19th century leads to a number of conclusions
which we consider relevant on methodical,
theoretical and practical grounds (1) The
debate on natural climate variability and
anthropogenic climate change is not new. A
similar debate, almost forgotten today, was going
on a century ago. The protagonists were in a
situation similar to that of contemporary
scientists. Brückner reminds us of contemporary
"activist" scientists. Brückner overlooked that
he did not have the expertise to predict the
societal response to adverse climatic conditions,
to cope with adverse conditions by improving
hygienic standards (the typhoid forecast), by
perfecting the railway system (the forecast
concerning the ice on the rivers) or by allowing
for artificial watering of agricultural land (the
forecast concerning harvests). (2) One of the
noteworthy features of the early debate on the
nature and consequences of climate change among
climatologists, geographers and meteorologists is
also the degree to which even then intellectual
boundaries among scientific fields prevented the
participants from incorporating perspectives and
findings dealing with exactly the same phenomena
that had been advanced in other disciplines.
After all, there had been for decades a lively
and vigorous debate among philosophers and in the
emerging social sciences about the impact of
climatic conditions on psychological and social
processes. The main assertions of this debate
ultimately proved to be inconclusive and were
rejected not only as one-dimensional, first at
the turn of the twentieth century in France and
German and later in the United States, but also
as irrelevant to the distinctive claims advanced
by social science discourse. That is, the domains
of the physical and the social milieu had become
successfully separated in science. (3) In the
end a consensus emerged among climatologists that
in "historical times" the global climate has been
constant that neither a warming trend nor a
trend toward less precipitation can be observed.
The singular preoccupation in the debate about
climate variations one hundred years ago was the
periodicity of observed fluctuations in
temperature and precipitation, not any secular
climate as signaled by an increase in the volume
of CO2 in the atmosphere. That such a
possibility, as the result of increased usage of
fossil fuels, indeed existed was discussed
alongside Brückner's 35-year-period theory in a
textbook on cosmic physics by Svante A. Arrhenius
(1903). However, none of the climatologists of
the day took up the challenge. Instead, they
agreed that climate change was not a significant
matter and soon other issues began to dominate
scientific discussions and public discourse.
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Brückner-Award 2003
Die Klimaforschung hat eine lange Tradition und
hat eine Reihe von Metamorphosen durchgemacht. In
klassischen Zeiten stand die Wirkung des
mittleren atmosphärischen Zustandes auf den
Menschen im Vordergrund, später entstand die
Klimatographie und schließlich eine Palette von
sich zumeist unabhängig entwickelnden
disziplinären Sichtweisen in Fächern wie
Geologie, Meteorologie, Geographie oder
Ozeanographie. Erst unter dem Eindruck drohender
anthropogener Klimaänderungen im letzten
Jahrzehnt und dem unmittelbaren Beratungsbedarf
von Politik und Gesellschaft beginnen diese
Disziplinen sich aufeinander zu zu bewegen.
Tatsächlich kann das "Klimaproblem" nicht als
Forschungsgegenstand etwa vorrangig der
Meteorologie verstanden werden. Einerseits muß
das Verstehen des Klimas als geophysikalische
Herausforderung gesehen werden. Andererseits wird
die Wahrnehmung und tradiertes Wissen von Klima
Gegenstand sozial- und kulturwissenschaftlicher
Forschung, weil Klima Gegenstand öffentlichen
Interesses und öffentlicher Sorge geworden
ist. Um diesen Prozeß der interdisziplinären
Verbreiterung der Klimaforschung zu fördern, wird
anläßlich der 6. Deutschen Klimatagung im
September 2003 zum zweiten Male der Eduard
Brückner-Preis für herausragende
interdisziplinäre Leistungen in der
Klimaforschung vergeben. Das Preisgeld in Höhe
von 1500 ist von Inter-Research, dem Verleger
der Zeitschrift "Climate Research", gespendet
worden. Der Preisträger wird von den aus den
Professoren Egger, Negendank, Sündermann, von
Storch und Wanner nach Vorschlägen aus dem Kreis
der Klimaforscher ausgewählt. Vorschläge werden
in schriftlicher Form bis zum 1. August 2003 an
Hans von Storch (storch_at_gkss.de) erbeten.
Erster Brücker-PreisträgerChristian Pfister,
Klimahistoriker, Bern
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Zahllos sind die Hypothesen und Theorien, die
über Änderungen des Klimas in der Vergangenheit
aufgestellt wurden und naturgemäß mehr oder
minder lebhaft das Interesse weiterer Kreise in
Anspruch nahmen, lässt doch der strenge Nachweis
einer in vergangenen Zeiten vor sich gegangenen
Änderung des Klimas sofort den Gedanken an die
Möglichkeit einer zukünftigen Änderung
auftauchen eine solche aber könnte sich nicht
ohne einschneidende Wirkung auf das
wirtschaftliche Leben der Völker
vollziehen. Brückner (18902)