Security and Stability in the South Caucasus

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Security and Stability in the South Caucasus

• Achim Wennmann
• Graduate Institute of International Studies
• Geneva
• Innsbruck, 1 October 2006

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Presentation Outline

• Similarities
• Differences
• Third party interests
• Conflict dynamics
• Implications for EU involvement

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1. Similarities

• Dissolution of Soviet Union
• Territorial conflicts
• Formerly mixed population structure
• Atrocities committed by all parties
• Refugee problem
• Disagreements on future status

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2. Differences 3rd parties

• United States
• Geo-strategic interests
• Stability
• Russia
• Historical Memory
• Interests in Georgia

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2. Differences Conflict dynamics

• Nagorno-Karabakh
• Negotiations
• Window of opportunity closing?
• Effect of petrol on peace process
• Abkhazia/South Ossetia
• Frozen conflict over
• New elite in Georgia wants change
• Strategy of Georgia

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3. Conclusion and EU implications

• Characteristics of conflicts
• Conflicts similar but distinct
• Conflicts a function of 3rd party involvement and
  strategies to maintain power of local elites
• EU implications
• Not able to compete with US Russia
• Limited impact on local elites
• Potentialities
• Police reform
• End isolation of de-facto states
• Prepare populations for compromise