The Lebanese Crisis

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The Lebanese Crisis HISTORY and
PROSPECTS Mustapha S. Adib Hungarian Institute
of International Affairs Budapest 08 May 2008
2
Nevertheless, if we see now some sad clouds
that darken the sky of our Mountains, if we
sense, Alas ! many a storm in the climate of the
world, let us not forget, though, that we have
seen many of them during the course of our
History ! Let us not forget that they go by ! And
that they disappear, knocking down the criminals
who provoke them, but that, for ever and ever,
this beautiful Lebanon is still there !
Charles CORM, June 1949
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The Middle-East
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The Geography of Lebanon
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• Lebanon

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From Phoenicia to the Ottoman Empire
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• The Early Times
• 6 000 B.C. First settlements
• 3 000 B.C. Foundation of the first Cities
• 1 200 B.C. Actual Phoenicia is created. It is
  a federation of city-states with a very strong
  identity. It extends from Ras Shamra (Ougarit),
  to the North to Akka, to the South.
• The Phoenician Constitution and Parliament are
  admired throughout the antique world.
• 814 B.C. Foundation by the Phoenicians of
  their most famous colony Carthago
• 322 B.C. Phoenicia is conquered by Alexander
  the Great
• 64 B.C. Creation of the Provincia Syria by
  the legions of Pompeus.
• Beirut becomes the intellectual capital of the
  region and the seat of a renowned law school. 395
  Phoenicia is reunited to the Byzantine Empire

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The Roman Empire
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• The First Religious Communities
• The first Christians arrive in the middle of the
  Ist century, after Saint-Paul.
• As for the Maronites, they come between 415 and
  702, droven out from Antioch and Syria by
  theological debates or by persecutions by
  Basileus Justinian II.

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• The Arab Conquest
• 628 Arab armies sweep through the region
• 636 The Byzantines lose the battle of Yarmuk
  The coast of Lebanon becomes Muslim.
• Demography undergoes deep changes with the
  massive arrival of Arabs and - at a lesser degree
  - Persians and Jews.

• Lebanese moutains become a shelter to all
  persecuted communities the Maronites who had
  become the new minority (8th century), Shiites
  (9th century), et Druzes droven out of Egypte
  after Al Darazi (11th century).
• 1 054 With the Great Schism, Lebanese Christian
  communities divide into Catholics and
  Orthodoxes.

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• The Crusades
• Jerusalem is taken by Godefroy de Bouillon (1
  099), then Saida (called "Sagette" by Crusaders)
  by the King of Jérusalem Baudouin the Ist (1 109)
  and Tripoli by King Baudouin (1 110).
• The Kingdom of Jerusalem and the County of
  Tripoli dominate the coast of Lebanon.
• Maronites, who feel close to the West, get closer
  to the Crusaders and often even welcome them,
  which explains the mistrust and hatred Muslims
  will feel towards them for centuries.
• Tripoli (1289), then Saint John of Acre, the last
  Frank state of Syria (1291) surrender. The region
  falls under Mameluk domination.

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2. Lebanon in the Ottoman Empire
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• Lebanon in the Ottoman Empire
• 1516 The Ottoman Empire conquers Lebanon from
  Egyptian Mameluks.
• 1536 Signature of the so-called
  Capitulations treaty between French King
  Francis the Ist and Suleyman the Magnificent.
• The French obtain special rights in the Ottoman
  Empire and become the protectors of Eastern
  Christians.

• In the 16th century, the first Catholic
  Armenians, persecuted in the Ottoman Empire,
  arrive. The Patriarcate of Bzommar is founded in
  1741.
• As for Orthodox Armenians, they flee the Turkish
  genocide of 1915-1918. Article 30 of the Treaty
  of Lausanne gives them the citizenship of the
  country where they live. In Lebanon, they create
  a Patriarcate in Antelias.
• Catholic Greeks and Syriacs come in the 17th
  century.

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• Towards an Autonomous Mount-Lebanon
• Two key figures Emirs Fakhreddine (1593-1633)
  et Béchir Chehab II (1788-1840) worked towards
  the unification of Mount-Lebanon and eventually
  gain autonomy.
• After many violent conflicts between Druzes and
  Maronites, a first special statute is implemented
  between 1842 and 1860 Caïmacamiaten. It is
  imposed by the Great Powers, the Druzes having
  called the British and the Maronites the French.
  
• Two governorates are created, one being ruled by
  a Maronite, the other one by a Druze, both being
  under the authority of the Wali of Saida. Russia
  tries vainly to impose a third Orthodox
  governorate.

Emir Fakhreddine II The Great (1593-1633)
Emir Béchir II Chéhab The Great (1788-1840)
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The Mutassarifyie

• After numerous sectarian conflicts, a new
  administrative system, the Mutassarifyie
  (1860-1920) is created and guaranteed by the 6
  signatory countries.
• It is ruled by a Mutassarif, who must be a
  Catholic non-Lebanese Ottoman subject , appointed
  by the Sublime Porte. It is assisted by a 12
  member council.

Each of the 7 provinces of Mount-Lebanon is
ruled by a Caïmacam named by the mutassarif and
belonging to the majority community in their
area.
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The Early Times of Arab Nationalism

• The British wish to drive the French away from
  the Levant, which is a key area to anyone wanting
  to control the Suez Canal and the transportation
  of iraqian oil.
• To achieve this result, they played on Arab
  Nationalism.
• British Resident General in Cairo, Sir Henry Mac
  Mahon, promises to Sherif Hussein rule over a
  huge kingdom comprising the Arab Peninsula,
  Palestine, Syria and Mesopotamia, in exchange for
  their support in World War I and their upheaval
  against the Turks.
• Those Lebanese who support Arab Nationalism are
  executed on the so-called Martyrs Square .

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3. The French Mandate
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The Sykes-Picot Agreements (1916)

• Blue area (French), under direct
  administration Made of Lebanon and Cilicia
• Arab area A,
• Under French influence Made of Northern
  Syria and the province of Mossul.
• Red area British Under direct
  administration Made of Kuwait and Mesopotamia.
• Arab area B, under British influence.
• Made of Southern Syria, Jordan, and the future
  Mandate Palestine
• Brown area,
• Under international administration.
• Includes Saint John of Acre, Haifa and
  Jerusalem. Great-Britain will obtain control of
  the Ports of Haifa and Acre.

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• The French Mandate
• The unexpected resistance of the French forces
  the British to a division they hoped to avoid.
• 19 May 1916 Signature of the Sykes-Picot
  Agreements, despite the conclusions of the
  King-Crane commission.
• 25 April 1920 The Conference of San Remo gives
  France a Type A mandate over Lebanon, Northern
  Syria, and Cilicia. Great-Britain receives
  Mesopotamia and Southern Syria.

The Conference of San-Remo (1920) From left
to right Lloyd George, Orlando, Clémenceau et
Wilson
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• The Administrative Organization of the French
  Area
• 1st September 1920 General Gouraud proclaims
  Great-Lebanon. France clearly supports
  Maronites. Great-Lebanon is divided into 4
  sandjaks North-Lebanon, Mount-Lebanon,
  South-Lebanon and Bekaa, as well as two
  autonomous cities Beirut and Tripoli.
• The High Commissionner, who represents France, is
  assisted, in each State, by a Counsellor and
  directs a political office and a civilian office.
  France defines very precisely this position,
  which shows it considers its mandate as a
  protectorate.
• 1922 The Society of Nations confirms the
  mandates given by the Conference of San Remo.
• 1926 Through the impetus given by
  High-Commissionner Henri de Jouvenel, Lebanon
  becomes a Republic, the Constitution of which
  derives from the one of the French 3rd Republic.
  Lebanon is described as of Arab appearance. A
  Maronite President will be the heqsdthe State.

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4. The First Independance
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June 1941 The French troops enter Lebanon
and Syria. As soon as Vichist troops are driven
out, Free France takes control of the two
states. 8 June 1941 by order of General De
Gaulle, General Catroux declares the
Independance of Lebanon. 1943 The Lebanese
Parliament puts an end to the French mandate.In
response, the High Commissionner has the Lebanese
authorities and the main nationalist leaders
arrested. They will be released by order of De
Gaulle on November 22, which is now the official
date of Independance.
The First Independance

• Prime Ministre Riad Solh and President Becharra
  Khoury agree on the National Agreement of 1943.
  The power is shared by the three Presidents .
  At the Parliament, there are 6 Christian MPs for
  every 5 Muslim ones.
• The power being concentrated in the hands of the
  Maronite President, Muslims start feeling
  disadvantaged, which fosters tensions.
• 1946 The last French and English troops leave
  Syria.

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• The Palestinian Issue (1)
• 1948 Creation of the State of Israel. The first
  Palestinian refugee camps are set-up in lebanon.
• 1949 Lebanon signs a truce with Israel.
• 1952 President Khoury wishes to have the
  Constitution modified in order to be allowed to
  run for a second term but must abandon under
  street pressure. He is replaced by pro-West
  President Camille Chamoun.
• 1952 Nasser comes to power. He will become the
  leader of Arab nationalism.
• In Lebanon, Muslims start supporting Nasser and
  the Palestinians, while Christians turn to the
  West.
• 1957 Camille Chamoun has a new electoral law
  voted, with a gerrymander that causes the defeat
  of all Muslims leaders.
• Angry Muslims call Nasser for help. In response,
  Camille Chamoun asks for the assistance of the
  United States. Eisenhower sends Marines to
  Beirut, which is the starting point of the first
  sectarian civil war in Lebanon.
• 1958 Chief of the Army General Fouad Chehab
  comes to power. It is the golden age of Lebanon.
  Important public entities are created and the
  money of the first Palestinian refugees boosts
  the economy.
• 1964 Election of Charles Helou who will govern
  Lebanon according to General Chehabs principles.

Gamal Abd-el-Nasser
Camille Chamoun
Dwight Eisenhower
Fouad Chehab
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• The Palestinian Issue (2)
• 1964 Creation of PLO in Cairo
• 1967 Arab defeat and second Palestinian exodus.
  They become a State within the State.
• 1969 Charles Helou is compelled to sign the
  Cairo Agreements. Lebanon becomes a country of
  confrontation against Israel but Palestinians
  swear not to use their weapons against the
  Lebanese people.
• 1970 King Hussein of Jordan perpetrates the
  so-called Black September slaughter. PLO
  chooses Beirut as its capital.
• 1970 Pro-Syrian President Suleyman Frangieh
  comes to power in Lebanon.

Charles Helou
Yaser Arafat
H.M. King Hussein of Jordan
Suleiman Frangieh
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5. The Civil War
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• The Civil War
• 1975 Muslim dissatisfaction is extreme as the
  sectarian power sharing does not take their
  demographic weight into account. In parallel, the
  Christian see Palestinians as a threat.
• 13 April 1975 Civil war starts. It will last 15
  years and shake the very bases of the State.
  There will not be any election during all the
  period.
• The army being unable to take action, Christian
  leaders encourage their partisans to arm
  themselves. Little by little, actual power will
  drift from the State to armed militias.
• The Christian start collaborating with Israel.
• 1978 Israelis invade South-Lebanon before
  withdrawing partly in 1985, leaving the
  surveillance of the area to the South-Lebanon
  army of Saad Haddad, then Antoine Lahad.

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• Hizbullah
• The organization is created in 1982
  as a response to the Invasion
• of South-Lebanon by Israel.
• First a terrorist movement, it is
  convened by Prime Minister Hariri to
  participate to the negociations after the Cana
  slaughter. of It then becomes a bona fide
  political party.
• The Party possesses a wide network of schools,
  hospitals, retirement homes... partly funded by
  Iran.
• Military-wise, it possesses 20,000 well-trained
  and overequipped soldiers who managed to defeat
  one of the strongest armies in the world. They
  also have a highly-performing communications
  network.
• Hizbullah is actually the advanced post of the
  Iranian strategy In 1979, when the Islamic
  Revolution took Iran, Imam Khomeiny tried to
  extend it to the whole of the Muslim World. But
  this expansion was stopped by Saddam Hussein,
  supported by Western countries and Gulf
  Monarchies. The only Iranian success was the
  creation of Hizbullah, which allowed ihe country
  to remain in contact with the most important
  issue in the Arab world Palestine.
• After the assassination of Prime Minister Rafic
  Hariri, Hizbullah remains faithful to Syria
  which is accused of the crime - and tries to
  prevent by all mans their leaving the country.
• 12 July 2006 Right when it was going to be
  compelled - as a non-statutory armed force - to
  disarm, Hizbullah abducts two Israeli soldiers,
  which is the starting point of a war in which it
  will appear as a hero.
• 11 August 2006 Resolution 1701 demands that all
  militias be disarmed and provides for 15,000
  UNIFIL soldiers to be deployed in South-Lebanon
  Hizbullah loses its legitimacy.
• The party then decides to fight on the political
  ground and does its best to prevent any attempt
  at national dialogue as this could lead to its
  disarmament.

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• The Taef Agreements
• 1989 The major changes in the international
  situation, and especially the collapse of the
  Soviet Empire allow the Taef Agreements to be
  signed. Civil war is finished.
• These agreements describe Lebanon as an Arab
  country. They modify the Constitution and confirm
  the National Agreement of 1943. The sectarian
  balance is re-estalished, as well as equal
  numbers of Christian and Muslim MPs at the
  Parliament.
• Actual power is vested in the Council of
  Ministers as a whole.
• The Taef Agreements will never be implemented,
  because of the Syrian presence.

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6. The Syrian Tutelage
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• The Syrian Tutelage
• 1976 Arrival of the Arab Dissuasion Force .
  Syrian troops, which came initially for a few
  months, remained for neary 30 years.
• 1988 Two governments are face to face Selim el
  Hoss which continues to govern in the absence
  of elections and the one set-up by President
  Amine Gemayel which is made of 6 members 3
  Christians and 3 Muslims.
• 1990 Irak invades Kuwait. The United States,
  looking for key alliances to set-up an
  international coalition, ask Syria to send some
  troops. Syria accepts, provided that it is
  allowed to rule Lebanon. President Bush seals the
  deal.
• Syrians then bomb Baabda Presidential Palace and
  force General Aoun to seek asylum in France. He
  will stay there for 15 years, while Samir Gegea
  is jailed.
• Actual reconstruction starts with the arrival to
  power of Elias Hraoui in 1990, then Rafic Hariri
  in 1992, following the first parliamentary
  elections in 20 years.
• 1995 The Constitution is amended in order to
  allow President Elias Hraoui to run for a second
  term.
• 1998 Election of Emile Lahoud.
• 24 May 2000 Israel withdraws unilaterally from
  South-Lebanon, which is often seen as a victory
  of Hizbullah.

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7. The Second Independance and the Current Crisis
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The end of the Syrian Tutelage

• 2 September 2004 President Assad decides to
  extend President Emile Lahouds term.
• 3 September 2004 Despite President Bushs
  refusal and the opposition of the People, the
  Lebanese Parliament passes the amendment to the
  Constitution.
• 3 September 2004 The same day, the Security
  Council of the UN passes Resolution 1559, which
  demands that foreign troops leave Lebanon, that
  all militias be disarmed and that the President
  be elected according to Lebanese laws and the
  Lebanese Constitution.

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• The Second Independance
• Resolution 1559 transforms the Lebanese
  security landscape.
• 14 February 2005 Former Prime Minister Rafic
  Hariri is assassinated.
• Syria is immediately accused. On March 8, a
  demonstration organized by Hizbullah gathers 1.5
  million persons.
• 14 March 2 million people participate to a mass
  counter-demonstration and demand Syrias
  departure from Lebanon.
• The last Syrian troops leave Lebanon on April 26.
  
• However, Syria still retains some political power
  in Lebanon, thanks to Hizbullah, general Aouns
  Free Patriotic party and Sleiman Frangiehs p
  Party, and to key persons in intelligence and
  security services.

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Hizbullah Demonstration in 2005
36

• The July 2006 War
• 12 July 2006 Hizbullah abducts two Israeli
  soldiers.
• Israel immediately reacts by attacking Lebanon.
  Its real objective is to destroy Hizbullah.
• After 33 days, an indignant international
  community forces Israel to stop the war. The war
  is a failure, from a strategic as well as from a
  political point of view. None of its objectives
  has been met, not even freeing the two soldiers.
  The Israeli army appears as unprepared and
  Hizbullah as the hero of the Arab world.

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8. Conclusion and Prospects
38

• The Political Deadlock
• 11 November 2006 all 8 March Ministries
  resign, while continuing their work.
• From 2006, the Lebanese Parliament has not sat
  but a few times, without being able to achieve an
  agreement about the quorum required for a
  presidential election.
• In consequence, said presidential election cannot
  take place and nobody has replaced President
  Lahoud who left on 23 November 2007. It is very
  likely that it will not be held before the 2009
  legislative elections.
• The power is now exclusively vested in Fouad
  Sinioras government. The Lebanese call him the
  King-President .
• Lebanon has thus gone from a tri-polar division
  of power to a more classical majority /
  opposition scheme.

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• An economy boosted artificially
• The reconstruction of Lebanon has come to a halt
  with the July 2006 war and the Nahr-el-Bared
  events. The productive system is at its lowest
  level and inflation has reached very high levels.
• However, some recovery signs can be observed. It
  is due to several causes
• The funds transferred by the Lebanese Diaspora,
  in especial the one that lives in Gulf countries
  and benefits from the oil boom.
• Underground economy is booming.
• The many private security companies are
  recruiting massively, thus generating employment.
• In addition, the Lebanese system being a
  traditional feudal-sectarian one, political
  leaders voluntarily take up some of the
  competences of the State. And while corrupted,
  this system, which is both the cause and the
  consequence of the structural problems of the
  country, is currently keeping Lebanon alive.

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• The Palestinian Camps ssue
• They prevent the State from mastering the whole
  territory, therefore prevent stabilization.
• 380,000 people have come since 1948 and live in
  12 camps all over Lebanon. These camps are
  actually ghettos where the population lives in
  highly precarious conditions.
• They have soon become security islands that
  are beyond the authority of the State.
• It is easy to recuit combatants, in especial
  among youths.
• Camps suffer from the consequences of several
  issues of major geostrategic importance the
  arrival to power of Hamas and the current
  political crisis in Palestine, the Iraq war, and
  the so-called internationalization of jihad .
• Traditional Palestinian movements are losing
  ground to newcomers.
• July 2006 The diplomatic shield created by the
  United States to support the Israeli aggression
  against Lebanon leads the Council of Mujahiddin
  in Iraq to extend their fight to Lebanon.
• Chaker al Absi founds  Fatah-al-Islam , out of
  a small heavily armed group called
   Fatah-al-Intifada . This organization claims
  to depend from Al Qaeda, although the link is a
  purely ideological one.
• The groups fighters are mostly foreigners but it
  has also been able to recuit in the
  dispriviledged areas of Tripoli as well as among
  the members of the former Dunnieh movement
  who have also fought in Iraq.
• Several groups of the same family are now at work
  in Palestinian camps Osbat-al-Ansar,
  Jund-el-Cham, Ansar-Allah, the Islamic Jihadist
  Movement...
• All these groups are drifting apart from the
  Palestinian history and from politics itself and
  are operating within a broader
  deterritorialized jihad .
• Although the Lebanese army did take
  Nahr-el-Bared, this did not put an end to the
  problem and troubles can start anew anytime...

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• The still Unsettled Issue of the International
  Tribunal
• The International tribunal that is supposed to
  try Prime Minister Rafik Hariris murderers has
  strongly contributed to dividing the country into
  two feuding camps, one wanting to try high Syrian
  responsibles, while the other one strongly
  opposes this idea.
• It was actually voted under Chapter 7 of the
  United Nations Chart, that is without national
  consensus on the topic.

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• The Chebaa Farms
• This geographic area accounts for between 25 and
  40 sq. Km, according to estimations.
• It is claimed by both Israel and Lebanon and
  contributes to fostering conflicts between the
  two countries. Most of the legitimacy of
  Hizbullah derives from it.
• However, this problem cannot be settled without
  the approval of Syria, which wants to make it
  part of a global agreement on Syrian Golan.

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Religious Communities in Lebanon
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• Conclusion and Prospects
• There are numerous economic, political, and
  security threats in Lebanon.
• Besides, the country, which is at the crossroads
  of several major political, religious,
  communitarian and strategic fault lines, suffers
  from the consequences of many a regional crisis.
• The failure of Resolutions 1559 and 1701, that
  have not been - and cannot be - implemented show
  that the solution to this crisis in not in
  Lebanese hands.
• Lebanon concentrates many foreign influences that
  - since the end of the ward - do not use arms
  anymore, but influence and national leaders are
  working - most of the time - by foreign agendas.
  
• Numerous groups are currently arming themselves ,
  which lets us imagine, if this phenomenon is not
  curbed down, a new civil war that will spread to
  a very wide scale.
• The only solution is, therefore, national,
  regional, and international dialogue of all
  concerned parties.
• Obviously, nothing is possible without a global
  settlement of the Palestinian issue.