Human Development and the Millennium Development Goals

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Human Development and the Millennium Development
Goals

• MADMABeirut 2006

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• 3 topics to be discussed1- Human Development
  Indicators2- MDGs in Lebanon3- Needs for
  statistics to evaluate the MDGs

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Topic 1 Major development indicators, 1960s to
present

• 1960s Unitary Index by Drewnovsky of UNRISD
  (nutrition, shelter, health, education, leisure,
  security, and social and physical environment).
• 1970s Physical Quality of Life Index (PQLI) by
  Morris (infant mortality, life expectancy, adult
  literacy).
• 1980s International Human Suffering Index by
  Population Crisis Committee (expectation of life,
  calorie intake, availability of clear drinking
  water, secondary enrollment, inflation rates,
  infant immunization, civil rights and political
  freedom).
• 1990s Human Development Index ( HDI) (per capita
  income adjusted for purchasing power, literacy,
  combined primary and secondary and tertiary
  enrollment, and expectation of life at birth).

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From which a plethora of indices

• Income distribution sensitive HDI
• Human Freedom Index (HFI)
• Gender-Disparity adjusted HDI
• Gender-related Development Index (GDI)
• Gender Empowerment Measure (GEM)
• Capability Poverty Measure (CPM)
• Human Poverty Index (HPI). In addition to other
  privately generated indices such as Freedom Index
  of the Freedom Foundation and many others.

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• Problem 1 Which index should the policy-maker
  maximize?

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• In order to improve all human development
  indicators, the
• decision maker should
• Increase life expectancy of people
• Increase literacy rates
• Increase enrolment at all educational levels
• Reduce income disparities among people
• Improve personal security of all citizens
• Expand the rule of law
• Insure freedom of expression
• Improve political participation of the people
• Insure equality of opportunity among them
• Reduce gender disparities in income, longevity
  and education
• Insure greater participation of women in
  political decisions
• Insure their access to professional opportunities
  and their earning power
• Insure that all will have the capability to be
  well nourished, healthy and educated
• Reduce the proportion of children who are
  underweight
• Insure that all deliveries are attended by
  qualified physicians
• Increase proportion of people who have access to
  safe water and health services
• Among other things.

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• Problem 2 most variables used in calculating
  these indices are strongly inter-correlated.
• For example expectation of life at birth and
  infant mortality are very highly inter-correlated
  so using one to rank countries gives very similar
  results from using the other. Both are highly
  inter-correlated with literacy levels
  (negatively) and with per capita income.
• Therefore, ranking countries by any of the above
  indices gives results that are not very far from
  each other (US, Sweden, etc. are always in the
  top one third, Lebanon, Guatemala etc. are always
  in the middle one third and Sierra Leone and
  Yemen are always in the bottom one third).

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• However, if we introduce variables that are not
  inter-correlated with the existing ones, such as
  the ones reflecting drug abuse, divorce, suicide,
  homicide, etc., a major change in ranking takes
  place.

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• Problem 3 All composite indices suffer from the
  problem of relative weights of the variables.
• In an African country devastated by HIV/AIDS,
  does a 10 per cent improvement in health equal 10
  per cent improvement in say literacy or income?

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Topic 2 The MDGs of Lebanon

• Most targets were realistically set in 2000 (the
  MDG report year), and Lebanon seems on the way to
  achieving themFor example - infant mortality
  rate 27 per thousand in 2000, fell to less than
  19 in 2004. Target 10 per thousand by 2015.

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• However, some targets are not very meaningful.
• For example -Proportion of births attended by
  skilled health personnel 96 per cent in 1996, 98
  per cent in 2004. Target 98 per cent in 2015.
  -Ratios of girls to boys in primary education
  100 per cent in 2000. Target 100 per cent in
  2015.-Ratio of literate females to males 15-24
  years 97 per cent in 1995.(For 10-14 years
  close to 100 per cent). Target 100 per cent in
  2015.

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• Most important, some priority sectors are missing
  from present MDGs.
• For example1. International migration,
  particularly the migration of young persons.
  This is widely considered, by politicians, civil
  society and the general public, as one of the
  most important problems facing the country.
  Because of its intensity, it is having major
  negative economic and social implications, among
  which

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• A- The brain drain associated with it is
  stripping the country of its most dynamic
  elements.

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• B- The bias towards migration of young males
  resulted in a major increase in the celibacy
  rates of women.

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Percentage never married females by major age
group, 1970 and 1996
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• The availability of mate ratio was calculated
  in 1997 for women 15-29 years of age as 7 males
  to 10 females.

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• C- Single educated women have begun a rising
  trend of emigration, to many parts of the world,
  including some Gulf countries.
• D- The family support system is declining (see
  ageing below)

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• 2- Internal migration and population
  distribution.The uneven distribution of
  population, economic activities and living levels
  in the country have been a major development
  issue for a long time. About one third of the
  population lives in Greater Beirut where more
  than half of the national income is generated.
  Discrepancies among levels of living among the
  various regions of the country are quite
  significant.

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• Poverty indicators in MDGs do not cover the whole
  spectrum above. Should be supplemented by social
  and economic indicators of urbanization such as
  urban primacy rates and regional distribution of
  economic activities.

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3- Ageing

• Total Fertility 1970 4.6 children 1996
  2.8 2004 1.7
• This rapid decline in total fertility from 4.6
  children to below replacement in some 30 years
  has resulted in the rapid ageing of the
  population
• Population 65 1970 5 2005 7.5
  projected to 2025 around 10.

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• This is being accompanied by a decline in family
  support systems due, to a large extent, to
  international migration.
• Thus, in spite of the recent increase in old age
  homes, they are presently overcrowded and the
  waiting list is fast growing.

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Topic 3 The need for statistics

• A study just completed by MADMA for a number of
  UN agencies (UNICEF, UNDP and ILO) looked into,
  among other things, the statistical needs for the
  proper evaluation of progress made towards the
  achievement of the MDGs. It was concluded that

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• Surveys needed
• Population survey every 5 years.
• Household budget survey every 5 years.
• Family health survey every 5 years.
• Labor force survey every 5 years.
• Unemployment survey every 3 months.

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• Some of these surveys do not exist. Others have
  been undertaken but not on regular basis or
  regular intervals but depending on the
  availability of funds.

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• Current statistics needed
• Vital statistics published monthly
• Morbidity statistics published monthly (e.g.,
  HIV/AIDS, road accidents, etc.)
• International population movement statistics.
• School and university enrolment/graduation
  statistics published yearly.
• Environment statistics published yearly.
• National Accounts statistics published monthly.
• ICT statistics published at short regular
  intervals.

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• Most current statistics were found either non
  existent (e.g. environment and ICT statistics),
  incomplete (e.g. vital statistics), or unreliable
  (international population movement statistics).

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Recommendations

• 1- There is an urgent need to take a fresh look
  at the plethora of development indicators from
  the regional point of view aimed at indicating,
  through a dialogue between policy makers and
  experts, what needs to be maximized first (i.e.,
  priorities among the indicators).

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• 2- There is also a need for the indicators to
  show the social pathologies often associated with
  development (high crime rates, suicide rates,
  drug abuse rates, divorce rates, etc.) in order
  to initiate a regional debate on how to conserve
  the good aspects of regional societies (low rates
  in all the above categories) while promoting
  economic development

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• 3- There is a need for a review and revision of
  the Lebanese MDGs with a view to eliminating the
  low priority indicators, low significance
  indicators and indicators that have already
  reached their maximum or thereabout, in favor of
  priority indicators some of which were indicated
  earlier.

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• 4- There is a need for a concerted effort by the
  international organizations in the coming
  programming cycle to reach an agreement with the
  government on a statistical program for the
  country that will be assisted by these
  organizations and that will at least cover the
  statistical needs for the proper evaluation of
  the development situation in the country,
  particularly for the evaluation of the revised
  set of MDG indicators.