LA GLOBALISATION: Un d

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LA GLOBALISATIONUn débat polariséSeptembre
2007
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Les théories du Développement
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Un débat polarisé
Jeune à somme gt 0 win-win Un processus inéquitable
Economistes classiques Adam Smith, David Ricardo, Benjamin Constant, Frédéric Bastiat, Fridriech Hayek Karl Marx, F. Engels, Lénine, Rosa Luxembourg
Economistes contemporains Kenneth Arrow, Milton Friedman, Walter Rostow, Robert Lucas, Jagdish Bhagwati, Anne Krueger, Stanley Fisher, Rüdiger Dornbusch, Alan Greenspan, Kenneth Rogoff Paul Prebish, Hans Singer, Paul Baran, Paul Sweezie, Arghiri Emmanuel, Harry Magdoff, Immanuel Wallerstein, Samir Amin, Gunther Franck, Bernard Maris
Essayistes et sociologues Martin Wolf, Francis Fukuyama, Kenichi Ohmae, Peter Drucker Pierre Bourdieu, Alain Joxe, Dominique Wolton, Joel Bakan, Susan Strange, M. Foucault, Bernard Stiegler
Institutions académiques NGOs Heritage Foundation, Cato Institute, IIE ATTAC, Oxfam
IFIs FMI, OECD, IIF CNUCED/UNCTAD, ECLA, CEPAL
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Un débat polarisé
Au centre du débat la question de lharmonie
spontanée dans le marché, de la légitimité et de
lefficacité de lintervention de lEtat, et
celle du caractère volontaire ou non du chômage

• Néo-classiques et monétaristes
• intervention inutile et néfaste de lEtat
• Le marché est le seul mode dallocation des
  ressources
• Agent individuel rationnel
• Le système économique a une faculté
  dauto-régulation
• À moins dune inflation croissante, le chômage ne
  peut être maintenu lt taux naturel
• La fonction de demande de monnaie est stable en
  longue période, doù la nécessaire modération de
  lexpansion monétaire

• Keynésiens et interventionnistes
• Intervention nécessaire
• Chômage de longue période par insuffisance de
  demande
• Importance du multiplicateur
• Rôle positif du multiplicateur pour accompagner
  la  relance 
• Pas déquilibre spontané et durable sans
  régulation

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I- La Doctrine Libérale

• Une économie de marché auto-régulée
• Une intervention publique aussi limitée que
  possible
• Un rôle clé de linitiative privée et de la
  concurrence

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Des classiques aux  néo-classiques 
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Les pères fondateurs de lécole libérale

• Colbert (1660) lEtat ne doit pas se substituer
  aux entreprises mais leur fournir un cadre
  favorable (infrastructures, éducation, recherche,
  politique industrielle)
• Gournay (1750) Laissez-faire, laissez passer
• Adam Smith 1776 The Wealth of Nations Natural
  order stems from individual choices with minimal
  state involvement natural harmony
• David Ricardo (1817) Principles of Political
  Economy and Taxation the law of comparative
  advantage a positive sum game for all countries!
  
• James Mill (1821) Elements of Political Economy
  exporting for importing (against the
  mercantilists)

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La coïncidence entre le commerce
 laissez-faire , la croissance et le bien-être
Les pères fondateurs du libéralisme économique
Montesquieu (1689-1755) Turgot (1727-1781)
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Adam Smith (1723 1790)

• Adam Smith, Scottish philosopher and economist
  "The Wealth of Nations", on free trade and market
  economics (1776) "Little else is required to
  carry a state to the highest degree of opulence
  from the lowest barbarism but peace, easy taxes,
  and a tolerable administration of justice."ADAM
  SMITH, 1755

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Adam Smith

• Adam Smith heavily influenced economic thought
  throughout the Victorian Era. Generally
  considered the "father of modern economics.
• Competition, the market's invisible hand, would
  lead to proper pricing.
• Strongly opposed any government intervention into
  business affairs. Trade restrictions, minimum
  wage laws, and product regulation are detrimental
  to a nation's economic health.
• Smith was not an apologist for the capitalist
  class.

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Theory of Absolute Advantage

• Wealth of the Nations (1776) Adam Smith
  promoted free trade by comparing nations to
  households
• It is the maxim of every prudent master of a
  family, never to attempt to make at home what it
  will cost ... more to make than to buy. The
  tailor does not attempt to make his own shoes,
  but buys them from the shoemaker ...
• What is prudence in the conduct of every private
  family, can scarce be folly in that of a great
  kingdom. If a foreign country can supply us with
  a commodity cheaper than we ourselves can make
  it, better buy it of them with some part of the
  product of our own industry employed in a way in
  which we have some advantage.

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Absolute Advantage

• A country has an absolute advantage over another
  in the production of good X when an equal
  quantity of resources can produce more X in the
  first country than in the second
• higher productivity!

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David Ricardo (1772 1823)

• David Ricardo, working in the early part of the
  19th century, realised that absolute advantage
  was a limited case of a more general theory.
• Theory of Comparative advantage
• Major work On the Principles of Political
  Economy and Taxation (1817)

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David Ricardo

• In the aftermath of Napoléons defeat, in 1815,
  British peasants consider that maintaining
  agricultural protectionism is a key to national
  security.
• Meanwhile, British industrialists want to achieve
  a decline in the price of wheat and of wages
  through import liberalization.
• Rising food prices and rising wages will squeeze
  industrial profits and only trade can lower
  costs.
• Each and every nation gets interest in
  specializing its production in those goods where
  it has  comparative advantage  depending on
  each nations endowments (labor, capital, land).
  
• Free trade will then increase global welfare

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Comparative Advantage

• What if one country can produce all commodities
  more efficiently than other countries?
• In essence this was the question David Ricardo
  posed in 1817 (industrial revolution)
• Ricardos answer underlies the theory of
  comparative advantage potential gains from
  trade.
• The gains from specialisation and trade depend on
  the pattern of comparative, not absolute,
  advantage.

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Comparative Advantage

• A difference in comparative costs of production
  the necessary condition for international
  exchange to occur does, in fact, reflect a
  difference in the techniques of production, the
  capital and labor inputs, and productivity.
• The theory aims at showing that trade is
  beneficial to all participating countries
• win/win!
• Positive-sum game of international trade!

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The Liberal economics school

• Samuelson Ricardo is right but
• Though they are both winers and losers, the
  winners gains exceed the losers losses.
  Productivity gains in Chinas export sector raise
  total wealth in each country China and the US.
• But technical progress in China can also improve
  productivity in export goods competing with the
  US! Chinas advances in semiconductors or
  Indias in financial services.
• Then, trade can turn entirely to the poor
  countrys advantage.

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Samuelson on the limits of trade benefits (2004)

• The aggregate economic gains to a nation from
  trade may decline in the future if other nations
  become more productive in those sectors in which
  the  rich  country now holds a comparative
  advantage. The benefits of trade that derive
  from specialization are diminishing.
• However, protectionism breeds monopoly, crony
  capitalism and recession pursuing open trade and
  competition is the better option for promoting
  overall growth and prosperity!
• Endless productivity growth race!

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Modern liberal scientists

• Walter Rostow take-off paradigm
• Huntington the Institutional development school
• The approch to development of the IFIs (FMI)
• Arthur Laffer (Chicago, South Carolina)
• Milton Friedman (Chicago) Monetarism
• Gary Becker (Chicago, Nobel Prize 1992)
• James Buchanan (Nobel Prize, 1986)
• Robert Lucas
• Paul Samuelson
• Jagdish Bhagwati
• Martin Wolf (FT)

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The liberal think-tanks

• Mount Pelerin Society of liberal supply-side
  economists created in 1947 by Friedrich von Hayek
• Hoover institution (Standford University)
• Cato Institute (www.cato.org)
• American Enterprise Institute
• Washington -based Heritage Foundation

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The neoclassical liberal school

• Economic development is rooted in market-driven
  economic policies, in cautious monetary
  management, and in trade liberalization
• Low taxes and minimum public sector budget
  deficit!

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Milton Friedmans approach to economic growth and
development

• Economic developments roots?
• ? free-market economy
• minimum state intervention cautious monetary
  management non-inflationary economic growth
• Consumers warrant more importance than citizens.
• Capitalism and Freedom-1962

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Friedmans approach to economic growth

• Diagnosis from 1865 to 1965, average US economic
  growth (excepted 1930 crisis) has been 4.0
  since 1965, however 2.5 due to excessive state
  intervention and over-regulation.
• Money matters Policy-makers cannot have
  long-term influence on interest rates, on
  employment rate, and on growth rate. The only
  justified policy mission is avoiding both
  inflation and depression. The only variable under
  the control of decision-makers is price stability
  through prudent monetary management regular and
  moderate expansion of domestic money supply.
• Keynesian anticyclical monetary policy is
  pointless and doomed to failure due to complex
  and uncertain lags between money supply, prices
  and growth.

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Friedmans approach to economic growth

• Liberal revolution could close the gap between
  potential output of 6 yearly and current average
  growth of 2-3.
• Recommendation limiting public spending as a
  proportion of GDP as much as possible.
• Hong-Kong as a target 15/20 of GDP (vs. 50 in
  France) with GDP per capita equal to the US
  level.
• The lesser the state intervention,
• the better!

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Les bases théoriques du monétarisme

• Monetary policy must be totally free from state
  intervention independence of the Central Bank
  and currency boards in EMCs
• Conclusion
• 1. Economic crises have nothing to do with
  capitalism vulnerability but with bad economic
  policies
• 2. The market remains the best coordination
  instrument with minimum state intervention
• 3. The cause of most economic crises is the
  intervention of the welfare state
• 4. The role of lender of last resort of the IMF
  and the resulting moral hazard increase the
  probability and the severity of financial crises.
  

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The emphasis on market-based economic policies

• It is safe to say that we are witnessing this
  decade, in the United States, historys most
  compelling demonstration of the productive
  capacity of free people operating in free
  markets.
• Alan Greenspan, December 1999
• Globalization is an endeavor that can spread
  worldwide the values of freedom and civil contact
  the antithesis of terrorism!.
• Alan Greenspan (2003)

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The neoclassical liberal school

• Robert J. Lucas, Robert Barro, and Thomas J.
  Sargents central assumption of "rational
  expectations", which assumes that actors in the
  economy are smart and forward looking and
  therefore attempt to predict the policies that
  government is going to implement.
• Excessive state intervention creates moral
  hazard (bail out of US Savings Loans in 1990,
  Japans financial system in 1999, Frances Crédit
  Lyonnais...)

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The neoclassical liberal school

• Robert Lucas
• While income inequalities rose in the 20th
  century, the 21st century will see a convergence
  trend
• since all countries have access to the same
  technology and institutions and adopt
  market-friendly economic policies, with fully
  mobile capital, the process of catch-up will take
  place as capital flows from rich to poor
  countries.

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The Liberal economics school

• James Buchanan Gordon Tullock (The Calculus of
  Consent), against the distortion of majority
  rule in parliamentarian democracy (the
  dictatorships of organized minorities) influenced
  by Friedrich Hayeks The Constitution of
  Liberty
• liberal interpretation of democracy ? rule of law
  and principle of generality ? simple majority
  rule can be applied only to general laws without
  any embodied discrimination.

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Les Étapes de la CROISSANCE

• Les différentes approches des étapes du
  développement socio-économique

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The stages of Growth

• Expressing the growth process as a sequence of
  stages instead of a simple chronological story
• Karl Marx feudalism gave way to bourgeois
  capitalism to be followed by socialism and then
  communism
• Karl Bücher and German historiography
   household economy  in the antiquity, then the
   town economy  of the late Middle Ages, and
  thereafter the  national economy  of modern
  times.
• Aim to design a model by specifying and isolating
  a limited number of factors in different stages
  to help predict change

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Walter ROSTOWs take-off approach to economic
development

• An historical approach to the underlying economic
  conditions of self-sustaining economic growth

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Walt W. Rostow Born in 1916 in NYC, primarily
known for his development of the linear stages
theory of economic development in "The Stages of
Economic Growth- A Non-Communist Manifesto".
1950 to 1961 Professor of Economic History at
MIT. 1961-66 Council Chairman for the State
Department of Policy Planning 1966-69 Special
Assistant to the President for National Security
Affairs 1969 Presidential Medal of Freedom by
President Kennedy "as an honor for distinguished
civilian service in peace time." )
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Take-off approach to economic development

• During economic development societies pass
  through 5 stages
• The traditional society,
• the pre-conditions for take-off,
• the take-off,
• the drive to maturity, and
• maturity (mass consumption)

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Take-off approach to economic development

• Requirements for the take-off
• Rise in the rate of productive investment from 5
  to gt10 of national income
• Development of manufacturing sectors
• Existence of a political, social and
  institutional framework which exploits the
  impulses to expansion in the modern sector

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A linear process of economic development...

• W. Rostow s Stages of Economic Growth the
   take-off approach 

OECD outside Korea and Mexico
Taiwan South Korea Chile
Take-off Stage
Maturity Stage
Latin America Asia Eastern Europe
Economic Growth
India Pakistan China
Africa
Stages 1-2 3 4 5
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Economic growth in emerging market countries

• Annual Growth in GDP (real PIB/h base 100 en 1970)

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Economic growth in emerging market countries

• Annual growth in GDP (real per capita GDP/ base
  100 in 1970)

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Net Private Capital Flows to EMCs
In US billion
Source IIF
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Samuel HUNTINGTON

• Political order in changing societies
• The Clash of Civilization

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From Economic growth to sustainable development

•  Political order in changing societies 
• Probing the conditions under which societies
  undergo rapid and disruptive social and political
  change
• The primary problem of politics is the lag in the
  development of political institutions behind
  social and economic change
• Growth extends political consciousness, broaden
  political participation, and multiply political
  demands
• Instability stems from rapid social change and
  rapid mobilization of new groups into politics
  coupled with slow development of political
  institutions

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Political order in rapidly changing societies
Process of socio-economic change
EMCs
Deficit of strong institution-building capacity
Strength
Obedience
Process of political institutionalization
Duty
Right
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Le progrès, cest le mouvement contrôlé!

•  je vois dans lEurope une barbarie
  attentivement ordonnée, où lidée de la
  civilisation et celle de lordre sont chaque jour
  confondues 
• Malraux, la tentation de lOccident (1926)

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The IMF Approach to Economic Growth and
Development

• Development is economic growth those conditions
  that make it sustainable, i.e. social
  mobilization, good governance, macro-economic
  stabilization institutional development...
• A country cannot have a sustained economic
  adjustment unless the government gets its
  budgetary house in order
• Setting the prices right interest rates,
  exchange rates, domestic prices, agricultural and
  commodity prices
• Institutional changes staffing, training,
  education, procedures, laws, regulations...

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The IMF and World Bank Approach to Economic
Growth and Development

• Sustainable development stems from a combination
  of sound economic policies, growth, and
  institutionalization with timely structural
  reforms
• Stabilizing the macroeconomic situation
• Reducing the size of the public sector as the
  private sector is the main engine for growth
• Reform of the regulatory framework
• Good governance

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Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments

• J. Polak (IMF/1957) Harry Johnson (1975)
• Robert Mundell (1975)
• Easy to apply in LDCs as monetary statistics are
  readily available
• Easy to modelize for IMF staff missions with
  macroeconomic projections
• Easy to impose IMFs domestic credit ceilings as
  major policy instrument of demand management
  domestic credit is the appropriate policy
  instrument for the control of the balance of
  payments.

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The IMF Approach to Economic Growth and
Development
The Monetary approach to the balance of payments
The MABP stresses the role of money in the
adjustment process. The Balance of payments
boils down to a monetary phenomenon, driven by
the relationship between the demand for and the
supply of money. It is concerned with long-term
equilibrium. It disregards devaluation as
bringing about a temporary change in relative
prices without any lasting effects on real
variables! A balance of payments disequilibrium
is rooted in a discrepancy between demand and
supply of money. Surplus MdgtMs Deficit MsgtMd
and people will get rid of the excess supply of
money through investment abroad, imports,
purchases of foreign goods and financial assets...
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The IMF Approach to Economic Growth and
Development Policy implications

• To boost domestic economic activity, the
  government resorts to high public spending,
  laxist domestic credit policy, and low taxes.
  This results in sharp rise in PSBR that is
  financed by the government selling debt to the
  central bank
• ? increase in the monetary base and money supply
  ? increase in domestic spending ? increase in
  imports and financial assets ? wider balance of
  payments deficit and downward pressure on the
  exchange rate ? offsetting central bank
  intervention on the exchange market ? reduction
  in monetary base and money supply to avoid a rise
  in import prices and inflation.
• Monetary base MB commercial bank reserves plus
  currency in circulation

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The IMF Approach to Economic Growth and
Development Policy implications

• In terms of country risk assessment, central
  banks balance sheet information will convey
  timely signals about the direction of fiscal and
  monetary policies and about the foreign exchange
  operations of the central bank.
• In particular, official foreign assets and
  domestic assets (loans to government and loans to
  banks) will be interpreted as signals of
  stabilization or run-away domestic policy.

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Roots of domestic macroeconomic
imbalances
Excessive growth in money supply
Excessive absorption
Inflationary pressures
High rates of spending on domestic and foreign
goods
Balance of payments pressures
Stabilization policy with exchange rate
adjustment and control of the money supply
decrease in creation of reserve money given the
money multiplier of the deposit money banks,
interest rate rise, and increase in reserve
requirements Fiscal adjustment Structural
measures to stimulate domestic supply
ADJUSTMENT
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Consensus de Washington Les  dix
commandements  de la gestion économique
soutenable John Williamson (IIE 1990)

1. Discipline budgétaire afin de limiter les besoins
   de financement du secteur public auprès du
   système bancaire national 
2. Orientation des dépenses publiques en faveur des
   secteurs sociaux 
3. Réforme fiscale
4. Libéralisation des taux dintérêt pour stimuler
   la mobilisation de lépargne 
5. Taux de change compétitif pour favoriser le
   dynamisme des exportations et limiter les
   importations aux produits pour lesquels
   lindustrie nationale nest pas compétitive 
6. Libéralisation commerciale 
7. Ouverture aux IDE (sans libéralisation nécessaire
   du compte de capital de la balance des
   paiements) 
8. Privatisation
9. Dérégulation
10. Réforme du droit de la propriété destinée à
    encourager lintégration de léconomie
    informelle.

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Lécole critique  anti-libérale 

• Marx et ses descendants
• LEcole de la Dépendance Baran Sweezie, Samir
  Amin, Immanuel Wallerstein, A. Gunder Frank
• Les dissidents Krugman, Sachs, Stiglitz

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Marxist approach to economic development

• Developments ingredients?
• ? Capital accumulation labor exploitation to
  generate surplus value and profits!
• ? Overall revenue is based on the economic value
  stemming from C, V and PL. Over the long term,
  there is a declining trend in V vs C, due to
  technology progress and on-going capital
  investment.

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Karl Marx (1818-1883)

• Born in Trier, Prussia in 1818. Doctorate in
  philosophy at the age of 23. Early work
  influenced by David Ricardo and Adam Smith.
• 1848 (co-written with Friedrich Engels), "The
  Communist Manifesto
• History is a series of class struggles between
  the owners of capital and the workers.
• An inevitable consequence of the capitalist
  system is an ever-increasing concentration of
  wealth in the hands of a few of the owners of
  capital, which at some critical point will lead
  to a revolution and from this, there will exist a
  classless society.
• In Das Kapital" Marx highlights the four stages
  which societies pass through
• feudalism, capitalism, socialism,
  and communism.

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Capitalism a contradiction-driven engine of
growth and crisis

• After years of scholarly research (in the British
  Museum Reading Room), Das Kapital was published
  in 1867. Engels edited the further two volumes
  which were issued posthumously in 1885 and 1894.
• Marx offers his economic interpretation of
  history and the theory of class struggle.
• Capitalism is a form of social order that
  contains its own inherent contradictions.
• Labor theory of value Exploitation and
  alienation of the worker Falling rate of profit
  inevitable crisis, leading to revolution and
  eventually to the socialist state.

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Marxist approach to economic development

• World capitalism is doomed to systemic crises due
  to several internal contradictions
• 1. The contradiction between labor exploitation
  and the need for stimulating consumption leads to
  overproduction crisis,
• 2. Competition for profits leads to ever
  extending the capitalist system into developing
  economies where labor is cheaper, hence long-term
  diminishing trend in profits
• 3. Keen competition between multinational
  companies gradually erode the dynamic stimulus of
  competition and leads to monopolies for the
  sharing of markets worldwide.

57
Marxist approach to economic development

• Overall Revenue Y C W PL
• Profit rate PL/Y PL 1

C Constant Capital W Wages PL Surplus value
C W
Ratio of capital vs manpower
PL/W
C/W 1
Profit coming from labor exploitation
? Law of declining trend in capitalism profit
rate
58
The gloom approach

• Rosa Luxembourg (1871-1919)
• German revolutionary leader, journalist, and
  socialist theorist, who was killed in Berlin in
  1919 during the German revolution. Only socialism
  could bring true freedom and social justice.
• Luxemburg was the advocate of mass action,
  spontaneity, and workers democracy.
• In 1912 appeared her major theoretical work, The
  Accumulation of Capital, in which she tried to
  prove that capitalism was doomed and would
  inevitably collapse on economic grounds.

59
Marxs comeback

• Joan Robinson (1903-1983), "one of the leading
  unorthodox economists of the 20th century .
  Robinson incarnated the "Cambridge School . She
  traveled extensively, especially to India and
  China.
•  The Accumulation of Capital  (1956) extends
  Keynes's theory to account for long-run issues of
  growth and capital accumulation.
• Strong sense of the historical context of social
  change and concern with the challenge of stable
  and shared economic development .
•  Robinson's 1942 Essay on Marxian Economics
  proved insightful, critical and among the first
  studies to take Marx seriously as an economist.

60
Marx s grandsons Dependency Approach

• Economic developments roots of industrialized
  countries?
• ? Center-periphery interactions with massive
  exploitation of cheap labor and abundant raw
  materials in under-developed countries.
• WHO?
• Wallerstein, Baran, Sweezie, Samir Amin, Palloix,
  Gunder Franck... (The Capitalist World-Economy)

61
Dependency Approach

• The only kind of social system is a world system,
  defined as a unit with a single division of labor
  and multiple cultural systems.
• The capitalist world-economy emerged in the
  mid-XVI century and spread over the entire
  world. It is characterized by a situation of
  structural dependence of developing countries
  under the domination of center-country
  economies.
• The capitalist world-economys objective is
  production for sale in a market in which the aim
  is to realize the maximum profit. In such a
  system, production is constantly expanded as long
  as further production is profitable.

62
Dependency Approach

• Engine of growth capitalism is the only mode of
  production in which the maximization of profit
  creation is rewarded per se. The rewards and
  penalties are mediated through a structure
  called the market, that is the principal arena
  of economic power struggle. Thus the pressure is
  for constant expansion.
• The world capitalist system involves not only
  appropriation of the surplus value by an owner
  from a worker, but an appropriation of surplus of
  the whole world-economy by core areas (Britain in
  the XIX century, USA and industrialized
  countries in the XX and XXI centuries).

63
Dependency Approach

• Engine of growth and crisis? The ability of the
  system as a whole to expand and create more
  profit regularly runs into the bottleneck of
  inadequate world demand crisis of
  overproduction, stock market crisis, deflation
• The role of the state as an institution in the
  world-economy is to regulate the market, i.e., to
  monitor the freedom of the market to minimize the
  risk of crisis.
• The world economy does not tolerate any
  socialist systems because it is rooted in a
  single world system, capitalist in form.

64
Dependency Approach
CORE
PERIPHERY
PERIPHERY
PERIPHERY
65
Simon Kuznets (Nobel Prize 1971)

• Growth long-term rise in capacity to supply
  increasingly diverse economic goods, based on
  advancing technology, and the institutional and
  ideological adjustments that it demands.

66
Simon Kuznets

• Characteristics of modern growth
• High rates of growth of per capita product
• Rise in the rate of productivity
• High rate of structural transformation
• Change in social and ideological structures
• Globalization of technological and capital flows
• Large income gap between developed and emerging
  countries

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Les  DISSIDENTS 

• K. Polyani
• Krugman
• Stiglitz
• Sachs
• Bourdieu
• Foucault
• Stiegler

68
Karl Polanyi (1886-1964) I

• Remise en cause du rôle du marché, dans une
  perspective historique (La Grande
  Transformation) le marché nest ni naturel, ni
  éternel. Sous sa forme capitaliste, il est même
  récent.
• Son émergence est  la conséquence dune
  intervention consciente et souvent violente de
  lÉtat, qui a imposé lorganisation du marché à
  la société.
• Le marché autorégulateur du XIXe siècle repose
  sur légoïsme économique pour assurer sa
  régulation.
• La révolution industrielle a créé un
  bouleversement social et technique avec une
  amélioration sans précédent des instruments de
  production, accompagnée dune  dislocation  du
  système social dans le marché autorégulateur.

69
Karl Polanyi (1886-1964) II

• Le marché réduit lhomme et la nature à de
  simples marchandises. Il est la matrice du
  système économique et social au XIXe siècle quand
  le libéralisme économique simpose dans une
   croisade passionnée  et que le  laissez
  faire  devient foi militante.
• Ce marché, fondé sur le travail concurrentiel, le
  mécanisme dajustement automatique de létalon-or
  et le libre-échange international, est aussi
  utopique que destructeur. Il est si totalitaire
  quil ne peut résister longtemps à la rébellion
  sociale quil attise.

70
Paul Krugmans view on economic crisis
Born in 1953 Ph.D. in 1977 from MIT. In 1982-3,
he worked at the White House for the Council of
Economic Advisors. Received the prestigious John
Bates Clark Medal in 1991. Currently at
Princeton. Krugman's main focus in economics has
been on international trade. New trade theory
deals with the "consequences of increasing
returns and imperfect competition for
international trade."
71
Paul Krugmans view on globalization

• In the 1980s, openness to trade was widely
  believed to reduce the likelihood of financial
  crises.
• Today, growing global integration does predispose
  the world economy toward more crises because it
  creates pressures on governments to relax
  restrictions.
• Economies are doing better in good times but are
  far more vulnerable to sudden crises due to rapid
  capital flight. The ride will continue to be very
  bumpy for many years to come!

72
Krugmans view on Asias 1997-98 economic crisis

• The logic of catastrophe was pretty much the
  same in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and South
  Korea. (Japan is a very different story.) In each
  case investors--mainly, but not entirely, foreign
  banks who had made short-term loans--all tried to
  pull their money out at the same time.
• The result was a combined crisis
• a banking crisis because no bank can convert all
  its assets into cash on short notice
• a currency crisis because panicked investors were
  trying to convert baht or rupiah into dollars.
• a governance crisis

73
Paul Krugmans view on Asias crisis
Was the crisis a punishment for bad economic
management? Like most clichés, the catchphrase
"crony capitalism" underlies something real
excessively cozy relationships between government
and business really did lead to a lot of bad
investments. The still primitive financial
structure of Asian business--too little equity,
too much debt and too much of that debt
consisting of soft loans from accommodating
banks--also made the economies peculiarly
vulnerable to a loss of confidence
74
Joseph Stiglitzs views
75
Core ideas

1. Poverty is an  affront to human dignity 
2. G7 governments urge liberalization on developing
   countries while maintaining trade restrictions
   and pushing intellectual property protection into
   the WTO.
3. The IMF's policies are based on the outworn
   presumption that markets, by themselves, lead to
   efficient outcomes, and do NOT allow for
   desirable government interventions.
4. Asymmetries of information prevent markets from
   full efficiency. Government and market are
   complementary and there is an important role, if
   limited, for government to play.

76
What is asymmetry of information?

• It is the difference in information between two
  economic agents within an economic relation
  (e.g.  the worker and his employer, the lender
  and the borrower, the insurance company and the
  insured )
• According to Stiglitz, financial markets cannot
  regulate themselves because anyone has NOT the
  same information at the same moment. Therefore
  the aim is to find the best structure to regulate
  markets (and not to let them work by themselves).

77
Consequences

• Deregulation will not promote financial
  development when information is asymmetric and
  competition inadequate. The economic efficiency
  is not secured. It will spur corruption and
  create an oligarchic elite that opposes the
  emergence of competitive markets.
• The partisans of the  Washington consensus 
  overlooked the importance of economic and
  corporate governance, underestimate the
  difficulty of building institutions, and forgot
  that many countries lack the sophisticated public
  administrations needed to ensure adequate
  competition.

78
The challenge of the IMF

• Increased transparency at the IMF is essential.
  Decisions there are made on the basis of ideology
  and bad economics. When crises hit, the IMF
  prescribes outmoded, inappropriate, if standard
  solutions, without considering the effects they
  would have on the people in the countries told to
  follow these policies.
• No discussions of the consequences of alternative
  policies. Ideology guides policy prescription..

79
Jeffrey Sachs views

• Director of the Center for International
  Development and professor of international trade
  at Harvard University
• Economic advisor for the government of Poland in
  1990 and for Russia's President Boris Yeltsin
  from 1991 to 1994 "shock therapy" to create
  market capitalism in Russia
• Special Adviser to the UNs General Secretary

80
Sachs The situation in Asia

• There vas no   fundamental  reason for Asia s
  financial calamity
• Budgets were in balance or surplus
• Low inflation
• High private savings rates
• Economics were poised for export growth
• The IMFs tough macro-economic conditionality for
  approving financial support led to recessionary
  monetary policy and increased panic

81
The Asian crisis an unpredictable crisis

• In Thailand currency overvalued overcapacity
  in real estate
• Bath devaluation required in 1997
• Overstated financial panic of the investors in
  Asian countries domino effect
• Flight of capital in an opposite flow
• Asian countries needed really significant
  financial sector reform
• But not sufficient cause for panic and for harsh
  macroeconomic policy adjustments

82
IMF declarations

• Before the Asian crisis (April 1997)
•  Directors welcomed Koreas continued impressive
  macroeconomic performance and praised the
  authorities for their enviable fiscal record 
•  Directors strongly praised Thailands
  remarkable economic performance and the
  authorities consistent record of sound
  macroeconomic policies 
• IMF, 1997 annual report

83
LÉcole Française

• Braudel
• Aron
• Foucault
• Bourdieu
• Stiegler

84
La France et les fondements culturels de
lopposition au libéralisme économique

• Tradition anti-libérale Opposition de léglise
  catholique au marché et au prêt à intérêt
  (Nicée-325) en sappuyant sur les doctrines
  dAristote et de St Thomas dAquin (production
  suffisante pour la survie et tout échange à titre
  commercial est stérile et superflu)
• A lopposé, lAngleterre sappuie sur les
  échanges commerciaux et financiers (Réforme
  introduite par Henri VIII)
• Fronde des économistes libéraux Mirabeau,
  Quesnay, Turgot, et Say, contre les
  mercantilistes attachés à accumuler la richesse
  monétaire, les Physiocrates qui sacralisent la
  terre, et les colbertistes qui demandent
  lintervention de lEtat.
• Appui libéral de Turgot (1774) libre-échange,
  suppression des corporations, libération du
  commerce des viandes et des grains

85
Globalisation et démocratie convergence ou
antagonisme?

• Globalisation et contrôle de linformation et de
  la transmission de la connaissance menace contre
  la démocratie?
• La diffusion de la connaissance a une fonction
  civique clé, elle est au cœur de la nouvelle
  citoyenneté globale au moment où le monopole de
  la diffusion de linformation na jamais été
  aussi fort (malgré lillusion dune culture
  globale te décentralisée via Internet!)
• La question de la représentation de la société
  civile au niveau national et international se
  pose de façon plus aigue dans la globalisation
  jusquaux années 1960, les médiations étaient
  organisées sous légide des états partis,
  syndicats, organismes inter-nationaux
  Aujourd'hui, besoin de contre-pouvoirs par la
  prise de parole de mouvements représentatifs
  autoproclamés (ONGs, associations, groupes de
  pression) qui refusent de voir en lEtat et dans
  la démocratie représentative les seuls lieux de
  débats démocratiques.
• Une démocratie ne vit que de contre-pouvoirs
  équilibre toujours instable. Enjeu à la défiance
  libérale pour toujours limiter le pouvoir et à la
  défiance marxiste-keynésienne du marché pour
  maintenir une fonction de régulation centralisée,
  nouvel espace pour une vigilance citoyenne par de
  nouvelles médiations de type associatif?

86
Fernand Braudel (1902-1985)

• Civilization and Capitalism (1955-1979)
• Stages in the development of
• capitalism since the 15Th century
• Dans le long-terme, le capitalisme acquiert un
  tropisme mondial et sétend à toute activité de
  production et déchange de biens et services
• Braudel analyse les tendances de long-terme
  tandis que Nicolaï Kondratieff en 1922 étudie
  les cycles longs (50 ans)
• Schumpeter en 1939 explore le rôle moteur de
  linnovation et des ruptures technologiques au
  sein des cycles

87
Braudel et la dimension historique du marché

• Fernand Braudel (1902-1985) analyse lémergence
  du rôle du marché capitaliste avec lintervention
  des grands négociants qui simposent sur le
  marché en court-circuitant le jeu de la libre
  concurrence.

Le marché est le lieu dun rapport de force et le
capitalisme perpétue les hiérarchies et les
inégalités des systèmes sociaux qui lont
précédé. À la fin du Moyen-Âge, la petite élite
des marchands capitalistes a su utiliser à son
profit ses relations privilégiées avec les
gouvernants   Le capitalisme ne triomphe que
lorsquil sidentifie avec lÉtat, quil est
lÉtat . Le capitalisme ne peut apparaître et
prospérer quadossé au pouvoir.
88
Raymond Aron et la mondialisation (1)

• Aron réfute le concept dimpérialisme économique
  fondé sur la relation antagoniste  centre
  périphérie  qui suppose la prédominance causale
  du système économique sur les rapports
  interétatiques.

• Lexploitation impérialiste des ressources des
  pays en développement date du XIX siècle et, au
  plus, du début du XX. De plus, le lobby des EMNs
  nest pas toujours en phase avec les objectifs
  géopolitiques des Etats de lOCDE et ces
  conglomérats ne partagent pas les mêmes intérêts
  et sont soumis à des pressions concurrentielles
  trop fortes pour décider dun partage du monde et
  dune mise en coupe réglée des pays en
  développement.
• Enfin, les pays, développés ou non, ont davantage
  profité des IDE américains, européens ou
  japonais, quils nen ont soufferts transferts
  financiers, technologie, management, pourvoyeurs
  demplois et de ressources dexportations

Raymond Aron Les dernières années du siècle,
Julliard, Paris 1984.
89
Raymond Aron et la mondialisation (2)

• Le déclin des Etats nationaux et leffacement des
  frontières nempêchent pas le modèle étatique
  européen de simposer dans un nombre croissant de
  pays en Europe de lEst ou en Afrique, notamment,
  avec une souveraineté reconnue et la création
  dune société civile
• lEtat national reste une priorité, même si le
  système économique échappe de plus en plus au
  système interétatique et devient transnational.

90
Michel Foucault (1926-1984) Naissance et essor
du libéralisme I-
1. La doctrine monétariste des mercantilistes
dans le cadre de létalon-or suppose un rôle clé
de lEtat pour limiter la concurrence, tandis que
Smith apporte au XVIII siècle une théorie du
 moindre Etat  avec la prédominance de la
régulation par le libre marché le jeu de la
concurrence produit un gain pour toutes les
parties doctrine de lenrichissement mutuel.
2. Lhomo economicus dAdam Smith ne vise que la
maximisation de son gain propre et la main
invisible du marché combine et harmonise les
comportements égoïstes individuels pour les faire
converger vers lintérêt collectif reste dune
pensée théologique de lordre naturel opacité
individuelle /transparence collective 3. La main
dAdam Smith est une sorte de providence
harmonieuse et la notion dinvisibilité est
essentielle car le bien collectif ne peut et ne
doit être visé par les agents économiques dont le
comportement reste aveugle à lintérêt général.
4. Lhomo economicus est le seul îlot de
rationalité possible au sein du processus
économique qui est par nature opaque et non
totalisable. 5. Impossibilité de lexistence
dun souverain économique!
91
Michel Foucault- Naissance et essor du
libéralisme -II-

• LEtat et le pouvoir politique ne doivent donc
  pas intervenir laissez-faire
• Le libéralisme est porté par le principe  on
  gouverne toujours trop 
• Léconomie est une discipline sans Dieu et ni
  souverain le domaine de ce dernier reste
  circonscrit au politico-juridique lEtat régule!
• Organisation dun marché mondial par les Etats
  droit de la mer, traités de paix (Kant en 1795 et
  son projet de paix universelle et perpétuelle
  fondée sur léchange et la propriété), traité de
  Vienne de 1815 avec instauration dun équilibre
  européen interétatique, organisations
  internationales

92
Michel Foucault- Naissance et essor du
libéralisme -III-

1. Avec lémergence du libéralisme au XVIII, il
   revient à lEtat dorganiser la liberté. Le
   système libéral produit et régule la liberté,
   dans léquilibre des intérêts individuels et des
   intérêts collectifs liberté/sécurité impose
   contrôle et réglementations.
2. LEtat a pour fonction principale de définir et
   de garantir le libre jeu du marché concurrentiel,
   source de croissance et de progrès. Sur la base
   de règles qui sappliquent à tous, ce jeu permet
   des prises de décision décentralisées

93
Michel Foucault- Naissance et essor du
libéralisme IV-

• Le néolibéralisme américain se propose de
  généraliser la forme économique du marché et de
  létendre à toute forme dactivité de production
  et déchange de biens et services
• Extension du principe dutilité marginale et de
  transaction à lensemble du corps social et
  concept de capital humain un ménage est une
  unité de production avec lengagement contractuel
  de deux parties à fournir des inputs spécifiques
  et à partager dans des proportions données les
  bénéfices de loutput ce contrat reflète un
  intérêt commun à minimiser les coûts de
  transaction
• Application de lanalyse coût/bénéfice à
  lintervention publique dans le champ
  socio-économique American Enterprise Institute
  le pouvoir politique est toujours en excès!

94
Pierre Bourdieu (1930-2002)
Critique du postulat de rationalité du marché
À la suite de Polanyi, refus de reconnaître la
suprématie du marché, ordre soi-disant naturel,
qui doit assurer un équilibre stable et le moyen
optimal dallocation équitable des ressources.
Pierre Bourdieu, Charles-Albert Michalet ou
Bernard Maris remettent en question cette
domination, trop souvent prise pour acquis dans
une totale abstraction historique et
institutionnelle.

• Selon Bourdieu, le discours sur le marché est
  imprégné didéologie
• Il mime une rationalité scientifique alors quil
  est dabord politique.
• Il reflète la pensée dominante américaine, bien
  quil se pense et se donne comme universel.
• Il repose sur une abstraction originaire qui
  consiste à dissocier une catégorie particulière
  de pratiques (léconomie) de lordre social
• Léconomie se veut un domaine séparé gouverné par
  des lois naturelles et universelles que les
  gouvernements ne doivent pas contrarier par des
  interventions intempestives.

95
Bourdieu le marché, rhétorique et métaphore

• Il ny a plus dalternative puisque le monde
  bipolaire a vécu et que toute nation moderne se
  doit demprunter le chemin déjà parcouru par les
  États-Unis qui montrent la voie du progrès !
• La mondialisation a pour effet dhabiller
  dœcuménisme culturel ou de fatalisme économiste
  les effets de limpérialisme américain et de
  faire apparaître un rapport de force
  transnational comme une nécessité naturelle
• La mondialisation prétendument inévitable est
  moins une nouvelle phase du capitalisme quune
   rhétorique  quinvoquent les gouvernements
  pour justifier leur soumission volontaire aux
  marchés financiers.
• Le nouvel ordre impose sa domination à laide de
  plusieurs leviers simultanés qui, tous, reflètent
  un rapport de force socioéconomique et culturel.

96
Bourdieu le marché, rhétorique et métaphore

• Limpérialisme américain apparaît autant dans le
  pouvoir des sociétés multinationales que dans
  cette  novlangue , qui diffuse une nouvelle
  vulgate planétaire centrée sur le marché.
• Limpérialisme culturel est ainsi une violence
  symbolique qui sappuie sur une relation de
  communication contrainte pour extorquer la
  soumission. Il véhicule sous une apparence
  technique et objective des notions a priori
  dépourvues de contenu politique en masquant leurs
  racines historiques.
• Cette colonisation mentale constitue en modèle la
  société américaine elle promeut les valeurs de
  marché et de profit comme les horizons
  indépassables de notre temps Une nouvelle
  rationalité comme fatalité quil faut embrasser
  sous peine darchaïsme!

97
Globalisation et contrôle culturel Bernard
Stiegler

• Le capitalisme devenant culturel, la culture
  devient elle-même la clé de toute domination
  socio-économique triomphe du consumérisme. Le
  contrôle culturel est au cœur du processus de
  domination du capitalisme américain.
• La puissance américaine réside dans sa capacité à
  linnovation permanente pour produire des
  symboles nouveaux autour desquels se forment des
  modèles de vie massification des comportements,
  hypersynchronisation et standardisation.
• Chaque fois que se produit une rupture
  technologique majeure, lEtat est au coeur du
  processus dadaptation socio-économique. Aux USA,
  dynamisme social moins par partage dun passé
  commun que par projection dun désir davenir
  unificateur.

Source Mécréances et Discrédit
98
Globalisation et contrôle culturel Bernard
Stiegler

• Le monde actuel vit une immense contradiction 
  les problèmes à long terme, exprimant des
  tendances lourdes, se profilent et saccumulent,
  tandis que les fonctionnements économiques sont
  désormais massivement dominés par des logiques à
  très court terme. Devenu financier, le
  capitalisme ne privilégie plus les cohérences
  économiques et industrielles, mais les retours
  sur investissement les plus rapides possibles.
• Dautre part, lindustrie vit de grandes
  mutations technologiques, qui nécessitent
  précisément des capacités danticipation et de
  transformations structurelles, et qui doivent
  être accompagnées et soutenues par une puissance
  publique réinventée, alors que l monde politique
  ne tient aucun discours sérieux ni sur ces
  contradictions, ni sur le rôle de la puissance
  publique en ces matières.

Source Ars Industrialis 09/06
99
Globalisation et contrôle culturel Bernard
Stiegler

• Cest dans ce contexte que la démocratie est
  détruite par la télécratie.
• Remplaçant lopinion publique par le marché des
  audiences, la télécratie est devenue le principal
  facteur de limpuissance politique, dont le signe
  le plus massif est le renoncement à tenir un
  véritable discours sur le long terme  la
  télécratie fait à la démocratie ce que le
  capitalisme financier fait au capitalisme
  industriel.
• Une puissance publique repensée doit porter une
  nouvelle politique industrielle où la place dans
  le devenir politique et économique des
  technologies culturelles et cognitives, et avec
  elles des médias audiovisuels, sont devenus
  lélément clé de tout le système   les
  technologies de lesprit nécessitent de repenser
  la société industrielle dans ses axiomes mêmes.