Questions about Climate Change

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Questions about Climate Change Biomass Energy

• Al Lucier, NCASI
• NCASI Biometrics Working Group
• March 2009

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Is climate changing ?

• Where? Why ? How much ?
• Are forests at risk ? At risk of what ?
• How is climate changing?
• Warmer? Drier? Wetter? More Storms?
• Should we be updating forest management models of
  species site relationships, stand growth
  yield, treatment response, risk, etc. ?
• Should we plant loblolly pine in Pennsylvania ?
  

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Are forests already changing in ways indicative
of climate change impacts ?

• Growth increases ?
• Increases in mortality ?
• Where ?
• Is it possible to measure the relative
  contributions of climate and other factors to any
  observed changes in forest health and
  productivity ?

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What effects could a federal cap and trade
program have on forest management and wood
supplies?

• What assumptions are necessary to model rational
  responses of forest managers to carbon trading
  opportunities?
• Future prices of forest carbon and wood
• Rules for counting and accounting forest carbon
  
• Transaction and opportunity costs of carbon
  trading
• How will cap trade affect GDP, housing
  starts, pulp production, demand for biomass
  energy?

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Leading Ideas of Cap Trade Proponents

• Major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are
  needed by 2050 to prevent a climate catastrophe.
• Threat of climate catastrophe and nations
  addiction to imported oil justifies
  breathtaking expansion of government control of
  US economy.
• In brief, federal government would design and
  manage a complex system that includes
• Energy rationing
• Energy price controls
• Energy taxation
• Redistribution of energy tax revenues

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What effects could biomass energy have on forest
management and wood supplies?

• What are some plausible demand scenarios?
• What faction of FIA timber inventory is available
  for harvest at any realistic price?
• How and why are inventories changing?
• What are the potential capacities of wood
  production systems in the US?
• What are the barriers to realizing the potential
  capacities of wood production systems?

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Total / Merchantable Biomass for Several FIA
Forest Types in Georgia
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US Forest Area Trends
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Veracel Before
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Veracel Today
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Harvesting at Veracel