Climate Change Effects on Transportation Infrastructure

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Climate Change Effects on Transportation
Infrastructure

• Ted Devens, PE
• NC Department of Transportation
• Contributors Brian Yamamoto PE, Dave Henderson
  PE

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Outline

• The Current Condition
• Infrastructure Challenges Ahead
• Changing Ecosystems
• Management Models
• NCDOT Considerations

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The Current Condition
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NCDOT monitors Climate Change initiatives at all
levels
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World Stage United Nations

• 1988 IPCC Created
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
• 1990 First IPCC Report
• 1992 Earth Summit at Rio de Janiero
• 1995 2nd IPCC Report
• Kyoto Protocol (183 nations signed)
• Reduce GHG emissions
• 2001 3rd IPCC Report
• 2006 An Inconvenient Truth Nobel Prize
• 2007 4th IPCC Report

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National Stage

• National Research Council Responses to
  Changes in Sea Level Engineering
  Considerations
• 2001 TRB Global Climate Change and
  Transportation
• USDOT Impacts of Climate Change on Transp.
• 2005 USDOT 1st Workshop on Impacts of
  Climate Change
• 2006 USDOT 2nd Workshop on Impacts of
  Climate Change
• 2007 ICF International Potential Impacts of
  SLR on Trans.
• AASHTO Primer on Transportation and Climate
  Change
• 2008 TRB Potential Impacts of Climate Change
  on US Transp.
• USDOT Impacts of Climate Change Gulf Coast
  Study
• 2008 FHWA Information on Climate Change and
  Transp.
• EPA, USGS, NOAA, USDOT Coastal Sensitivity
  to Sea Level Rise A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic
  Region
• 2009 TRB Planning for CC Impacts _at_ US Ports
• 2009 TRB Factors Affecting Airport and the
  Impact of CC
• 2009 USACE Incorporating Sea-Level Change
  Considerations in Civil Works Programs

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North Carolina Stage

• 2005
• Legislative Commission on Global Climate Change
• 2007
• Monitor NOAA and Sea Grant research (local)
• 2009
• DEM - SLR Risk Management Study
• 2009
• DCM - SLR Planning (Rulemaking) Initiative

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Sea Level Rise(SLR)
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Oregon Inlet, NC
Empirical Rate 11 inches / Century
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Beaufort, NC
Empirical Rate 10 inches / Century
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Wilmington, NC
Empirical Rate 8.2 inches / Century
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NRC SLR Prediction (1987)
6 ft
3.3 ft
1.6 ft
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IPCC SLR Prediction (2001)
2.9 ft
2.3 ft
1.5 ft
0.7 ft
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IPCC SLR Prediction (2007)
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Climate Change Summary

• Climatologically, the world is NOT STATIC.
• Empirical Data Suggests that
• Sea Level IS rising.
• Rainfall intensity IS increasing.

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Climate Change Summary

• The BIG question for Engineers
• When and at what amplitude will the geological
  peak occur?
• Long-standing engineering assumptions may need to
  change.

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Challenges toTransportation Infrastructure
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Roadway Elevation and Width

• Drainage
• Geotechnical Stability
• Safety Functionality
• - Shoulders, Guardrails, Median
• Erosion Resistance
• - Future Armoring?

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Bathymetry
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Bathymetric ApproachOK
Existing
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Bathymetric Approach Not OK
SLR
Existing
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NC 12 on the Outer Banks

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NC Hurricane Landfalls Since 1950
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Hurricane Frequency Intensity
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Hurricane Frequency Intensity
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Warmer Waters?
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Hurricane Frequency Intensity
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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
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Signs
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Increasing Wind Larger Waves

• Wind Fetch Distance gt Wave Height

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Storm Surge Katrina
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Navigable Clearance
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Navigable Clearance
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Navigable Clearance
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Structures

• Storm Surge Wave Energy
• Scour
• Wind Loads
• Deck Height
• Navigable Clearance
• Storm Surge susceptibility
• Temperature effect on expansion joints

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Hydraulics

• Drainage Double-Whammy to Highways
• Rising Sea Level?
• Additional Rainfall Intensity?

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Rainfall Intensity
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Rainfall Intensity
?
?
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Existing Drainage Condition
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Potential Drainage Concern after Sea Level Rise
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Potential Drainage Concernafter SLR ?
Rainfall Intensity
Also Fill and Slope Stability Concerns
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Open Channels
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Open Channel Flow in Coastal Plains
Normal Water Elevation
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Open Channel Flow in Coastal Plains
Available Conveyance Area
Normal Water Elevation
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Open Channel Flow in Coastal Plains
RAISED Normal Water Elevation due to Sea Level
Rise
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Open Channel Flow in Coastal Plains
REDUCED Conveyance Area
Normal Water Elevation due to Sea Level Rise
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Open Channel Flow in Coastal Plains
ADDITIONAL Conveyance Area
Normal Water Elevation due to Sea Level Rise
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Floodplains Floodways

• New FEMA Floodplains to consider?

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Geotechnical

• Soil Saturation Capillary Rise
• Load Transfer Fill-slope Stability

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Transportation Issues

• Underground Utilities
• Subject to Inundation
• Pavement Design Maintenance
• High groundwater tables
• Increased flooding
• Temperature Extremes

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Changing Ecosystems
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Shoreline Transition
2050
2025
2100
2075
2000
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Wetland Transition
2100
2000
TIDAL MARSH
COASTAL MARSH
TIDAL MARSH
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Ecological Planning

• Changing Wetland Locations
• Todays tidal marsh drowned in 30 years
• Salt marsh today Tidal Marsh
• Swamp forest or farm fields Salt Marsh
• Wetland Mitigation
• Creation, Restoration, Preservation
• Restore wetlands that will be inundated?
• What does In Perpetuity mean?

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Ecological Planning

• Changing Habitats
• Endangered Species Protection Mitigation
• Will habitat exist in the future?
• What is Best for Environmental Stewardship?
• Plan for Existing Conditions. or Future?

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Red Wolf Mitigation Plan?
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Ecological Issues

• Significant engagement is necessary to address
  environmental laws that
• assume STATIC conditions.
• EPA
• NOAA Fisheries
• USFWS Regulatory
• USACE Regulatory
• Appropriate State Agencies

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Coastal Communities
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Examples of Existing Regulatory Models that
consider Climate Change
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Policy Rulemaking by Others

• United Kingdom
• US Army Corps of Engineers (July 2009)
• Council on Environmental Quality
• - may require NEPA to consider Climate Change
• Climate Change Adaptation Plans
• - by other states or localities

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US Army Corps of Engineers
July 2009 - USACE Circular 1165-2-211 Requires
consideration of Sea Level Rise when
planning/designing Civil Works programs. Planni
ng studies and engineering designs should
consider alternatives that are developed and
assessed for the entire range of possible future
rates of sea-level change. Low rate
Empirical data trend Intermediate
rate Modified NRC Curve I High rate Modified
NRC Curve III
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4.5 ft
1.6 ft
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US Army Corps of Engineers
For each sea-level scenario, determine Sensitiv
ity of plans designs Degree of Risk Human
health and safety Economic costs and
benefits Environmental Impacts Strategies to
minimize adverse consequences Make a decision
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What if the Corps of Engineers was planning a
highway?Hypothetical Application of the Corps
Model
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Planned Two-Lane Highway
Right-of-Way at present Sea Level
Drawing is not to scale
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Planned Two-Lane Highway
Right-of-Way at moderate SLR
Right-of-Way at present Sea Level
Drawing is not to scale
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Planned Two-Lane Highway
Right-of-Way at significant SLR
Right-of-Way at moderate SLR
Right-of-Way at present Sea Level
Drawing is not to scale
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NCDOT Considerations
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Where is the State of NC?

• Education Continued Research
• Public
• Decision-Makers
• Platform for Decision-Making
• Public Policy
• Land Use Planning
• Engineering Design Criteria
• Ecosystem Management
• Spinoff Research - Adaptation
• Risk Management Cost Effectiveness

NC is transitioning
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Planning Considerations
Potentially more issues to consider Potential
changes in land use City County plans CAMA
land use plans Ecologic foresight Future
changes in Design Criteria may generate a wider
roadway footprint right-of-way
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Current NCDOT Thoughts

• SLR prediction models still vary substantially
• Money is tight and must be spent wisely
• Closely Monitor Research at all levels
• Closely monitor NC initiatives provide input
• DEM SLR Risk Management Study
• DCM Rules Development
• Legislative committees

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Current NCDOT Thoughts

• Implement new NEPA planning considerations as CEQ
  requirements change
• Consider programmatic pre-authorizations
• Ex Roadway armoring, Tidal flapgates
• For now
• Address Climate Change issues on a
  project-by-project basis.
• Later On
• Consider risk management models as appropriate.
  Perhaps similar to USACE model perhaps not.

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Similar Issues

• NCDOT
• Railroads
• Aviation
• Ferry Division
• Public Transportation
• NC Port Authority

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NCDOT is willing to partner as we think ahead
about our changing world
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Questions Were Asking Ourselves

• What is the actual risk presented by each Climate
  Change aspect?
• What is the Cost vs. Benefit to address?
• Are systemic risk management models appropriate?
• How can we productively partner with other
  entities to think ahead?
• Will other entities share cost and/or risk?

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Risk Assessments

• USDOT (w/ Federal Highway Administration)
• EPA / NOAA / USGS
• Transportation Review Board (TRB)
• AASHTO
• NC DEM - SLR Risk Management Study

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Specific Climate Change Concerns

• Wind Water
• Sea Level Rise
• Increasing Rainfall Intensity
• Hurricanes Storms
• Storm Surge
• Wave Energy
• Wind
• Bathymetry
• Temperature Extremes
• Fog

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Rising Normal Water Level

• Tidal ebb and flood
• Higher tailwater elevations
• Raise pipe outlets?
• Design for outlet control? (larger pipe size)
• Retrofits to existing highway ditches?
• Flap gates
• Wider ditches / canals

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Increasing Wind Loads?

• Increased lateral loads
• Increased lift in negative pressure zones
• Wind Erosion and Accretion
• Vehicular safety on bridges

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Hypothetical Example of Environmental Stewardship

• Scientists are very concerned about wetlands
  ability to migrate with SLR
• Will substrate development keep up with SLR?
• Vertical barriers threaten migration
• Existing roadways are potential barriers
• Possible consideration w/ new roads retrofits
• Build Permeable Roads w/ Equalizer Pipes
• Allows transfer of water, nutrients, seeds
• Allows passage of aquatic species reptiles

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