Developing the South Florida Economic Forecasting Partnership

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Developing the South Florida Economic Forecasting
Partnership
Presented by Richard F. Ogburn, Principal Planner
January 30, 2004
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South Florida Economic Forecasting Partnership
Purpose of the Partnership Enhance the ability of
the partners and other interested parties to
prepare accurate and timely demographic and
economic forecasts and analysis in the Southeast
Florida region (composed of the 7 counties in the
jurisdiction of the two Regional Planning
Councils - South Florida and Treasure Coast).
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(No Transcript)
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South Florida Economic Forecasting Partnership

• In 2000, the 7-county region had a population of
  5.5 million, up from 3.5 million in 1980 and 4.5
  million in 1990.
• Projected growth for the next 20 years is 250 net
  new residents each and every day.
• Almost one-third of the regions population in
  2000 was foreign-born.
• Over half of the net new residents each year come
  from abroad.

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Decennial Population Growth, 1920-2030
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South Florida Economic Forecasting Partnership
The Partnership acquired an 8-region 53-sector
version of REMIs Policy Insight. The eight
regions of the model are
Identical copies of the model are maintained at 6
locations the 2 RPC offices, Miami-Dade, Broward
and Palm Beach Counties, and the South Florida
Water Management District.
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Why Coordinated Forecasts?

• A coordinated forecasting process will improve
  the internal consistency of forecasts within the
  region.
• For example, the estimate of future net migration
  between Miami-Dade and Broward Counties will be
  useful for each countys population forecast. A
  coordinated forecasting process would ensure that
  both counties use the same inter-county migration
  estimate in their respective forecast. Failing
  to do so will create an internal inconsistency
  from a regional perspective.

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County-to-County Migration, 1995-2000
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Growth of the Foreign-Born Population
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Growth of the Foreign-Born Population
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Why Coordinated Forecasts?

• A coordinated forecasting process will create
  opportunities for testing the reasonableness of
  county-based forecast results.
• Since 1970, Southeast Floridas share of the
  total population of the State of Florida has
  remained stable, although it is projected to
  decline, due to factors such as the
  proportionally lower supply of developable land
  and the higher cost of living in the region.
  Forecasts at the individual county level could be
  combined and checked against the regions share
  of the state.

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Regions Share of State Population
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Why Coordinated Forecasts?

• The use of a consistent forecast for the entire
  region will enhance the ability of the region and
  each of its component counties to negotiate
  successfully for an appropriate share of state
  and federal resources.
• Official population estimates for Southeast
  Florida used in the states 2001 budgeting
  process underestimated the April 1, 2000
  population of the region by almost a quarter of a
  million residents, when compared with Census 2000
  data (85.5 of the overall underestimate in the
  State).

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Differences in Population Estimates
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Why Coordinated Forecasts?

• As the interrelationships among counties grow
  stronger, it is increasingly important to
  forecast growth and change at the regional level.
• The labor market in Southeast Florida is
  increasingly becoming a single regional market,
  with many people living in one county while
  working in another. As population growth in one
  county is also dependent upon conditions (such as
  proximity to build-out) in other counties, it is
  increasingly difficult to conduct accurate
  forecasting solely at the county level.

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Regional Journey-to-Work Flows in 1990
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Regional Journey-to-Work Flows in 2000
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Convening the Partnership Objectives

• Build expertise in demographic and economic
  analysis in the region and its component counties
  shared learning.
• Improve understanding of the region and the
  relationships among its member counties.
• Develop consensus demographic and economic
  forecasts, adjusting the regional REMI control as
  appropriate.
• Support systematic use of the model in project
  and policy analysis to ensure improved
  decision-making.

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Convening the Partnership Steps

• SFRPC, Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach met to
  discuss demographic forecasts starting in 2001
• Broward County encouraged inclusion of regional
  economic forecasting and fiscal impact analysis
• Agreement to acquire a model Summer 2002
• Letter of Interest REMI, Rutgers Center for
  Urban Policy Research, Washington Economics Group
• Selection of REMIs Policy Insight late 2002
• Expansion of group to include counties in the 2
  RPCs

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Convening the Partnership Coordination

• Other Potential Users
• School Boards
• Economic Development promotion organizations
• Airports
• Seaports
• Metropolitan Planning Organizations
• Florida Department of Transportation Districts
• Developers