Sleepwalking Into the Future

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Sleepwalking Into the Future

• Understanding the Biggest Energy Challenge of the
  21st Century

Presented by the Second Tuesday Peak Oil
Discussion Group
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What Is This About?

• Were here to talk about Peak Oil
• What is it?
• When will its impact be felt?
• What does it mean for
• Ourselves and our families?
• Our community?
• Our state?
• What can we do to prepare?

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What Do We Hope To Accomplish?

• This gathering is intended to raise your
  awareness of Peak Oil and start a conversation.

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What is Peak Oil?

• Peak Oil is the point at which we can no longer
  increase the amount of oil we pump from a
  particular region (be that the United States,
  North America, or the Earth).

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Hubberts Curve

• Based on his model, in 1956 geologist, M. King
  Hubbert predicted that oil production in the US
  lower 48 states would peak in the early 1970s.

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Now, The World is Nearing Peak
Source Post Carbon Institute
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Cant We Just Find Some More?

• Its highly unlikely
• Peak discovery typically precedes peak production
  by 25 to 40 years
• World oil discovery peaked in the mid-1960s and
  has been declining ever since

Source Post Carbon Institute
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SoYou Cant Produce More OilIf You Havent
Found It!
Oil Discovery (3 year average past and
projected 1930-2050
ASPO
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U.S. Energy Production 2000
(s)less than 0.5 quadrillion BTU (Source U.S.
DOE)
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U.S. Energy Consumption by Source
Source U.S. DOE, 1997
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Why is Gas so Expensive?
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World Oil DEMAND

• The world currently uses 84 million barrels of
  oil a day (mbd), and that will rise by around 2-3
  mbd by the end of the year. Demand is growing 2
  per year.

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Change in Consumption

• Oil Consumption Change from 1965 - 2003

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Oil Consumption Top Ten

• Country Description Amount
• 1.United States 19.7 million barrels per day
• 2.Japan 5.4 million barrels per day (2002)
• 3.China 4.9 million barrels per day (2001)
• 4.Germany 2.71 million barrels per day (2002)
• 5.Russia 2.38 million barrels per day (2001)
• 6.Brazil 2.2 million barrels per day (2001)
• 7.India 2.0 million barrels per day (2002)
• 8.Canada 2.0 million barrels per day (2002)
• 9.France 1.96 million barrels per day (2002)
• 10.Mexico 1.93 million barrels per day (2002)

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The Hirsch Report (US DOE, 2005)

• Without massive mitigation more than a decade
  before the fact, the problem will be pervasive
  and will not be temporary. Previous energy
  transitions (wood to coal and coal to oil) were
  gradual and evolutionary oil peaking will be
  abrupt and revolutionary.

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Three Important Variables

• Year of peak
• Decline rate after peak
• 2 -- more time to adapt
• 8 -- collapse?
• When we get serious about it

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Decline Rates to 2050

• If oil peaks in 2010, by 2050 net energy
  availability will be
• less than half of what it was in 2010, assuming
  2 decline per year
• 30 of what it was in 2010, assuming 3 decline
  per year

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The Economy

• Massive unemployment
• Especially vulnerable industries airlines, auto
  makers, builders, their suppliers

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Moving People

• Gradual isolation of rural areas
• Reorganization of cities and suburbs needed
• Demand for mass transit increases
• Parking, congestion no longer problems

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Moving Goods

• Much greater costs to transport goods from China
  or elsewhere

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Food

• Much less food imported from Florida, California,
  Mexico, New Zealand
• Farmers face higher fuel and fertilizer costs,
  smaller markets
• Prices skyrocket

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Additional Factors (Instability!)

• Climate change
• Agricultural yields less predictable
• More powerful storms, destroying cities and crops
• Rising sea level
• Gulf Stream stops running?
• US economy and value of dollar
• Trade deficit (X over last 5 years)
• Federal budget deficit (X over last 5 years)
• Euro replaces dollar as petroleum currency?
• Pandemics

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Interactions

• What does someone do who is an unemployed airline
  worker living in a distant subdivision in a house
  that burns 1,000 gallons of oil per year?

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How Many PeopleCan the Planet Support?
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Approaches to Peak Oil

• What should we be doing in the short and long
  term to prepare?

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Deep Efficiency

• Short term
• ramp up Efficiency Vermont
• Longer term
• Efficiency Vermont gtgt Energy Vermont
• All fuels,
• including
• renewables
• 40 to 90
• savings

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Education

• Teach our children well
• Adult education
• About the problem AND about solutions

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Re-localize Food

• Reduce oil inputs into agriculture
• Support local agriculture
• Farmers, CSAs and farmers markets
• Support NOFA
• Support permaculture landscapes

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Re-localize The Economy

• Support vital downtowns
• Support walk able and
• bike able communities

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Public Transportation Enable No-auto Living

• Increase bus routes
• Commuter rail - Champlain flyer
• High speed rail to Boston, NY and Montreal
• Car-share and ride-share

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Localize Energy Production

• Biomass
• Wind
• Solar
• Hydro

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Great New Buildings

• 90 reduction in non-renewable energy use
• NRG our buildings

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Demonstrate A Post-peak Community Retrofit

• Small geographic area
• Major load reductions 80-90
• Heat, Electricity and Transportation
• Renewable fuels
• Bio-mass infrastructure and equipment

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Demonstrate A Post-peak Community Retrofit

• Cooperative use of resources
• Develop the skills
• Develop the delivery infrastructure

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Demonstrate New Communities

• Decentralized
• Communal

• Permacultural
• Low energy

Slide from Portland Peak Oil Group
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(No Transcript)
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Thank You!
Presented by The Second Tuesday Peak Oil
Discussion Group