Comprehensive Particulate Matter Modeling: A One Atmosphere Approach

1
Episodic Modeling of Reasonable Progress
Jim Boylan Georgia Department of Natural
Resources VISTAS Technical Lead for Air Quality
Modeling VISTAS TAWG and Planning Meeting
Durham, NC April 4, 2005
2
Episodic Modeling

• Georgia Tech performed episodic emission
  sensitivities using CMAQ on the VISTAS 12 km
  modeling domain
• Model simulations for two episodes
• July 13-27, 2001 and January 1-20, 2002
• 2018 OTB and 2018 OTW
• Episode days are weighted using CART to best
  represent 20 best and worst days
• Can only use days with measurements (1 of 3)
• Each site will use 1 5 days to represent each
  metric

3
Modeling Approach

• Modeled 2002 typical, 2018 OTB and OTW
• Brute-force sensitivities performed by reducing
  specific emissions by 30
• Modeling results used in a relative fashion
  rather than absolute fashion (daily RRFs)
• Goal is to perform a PRELIMINARY evaluation of
  the reasonable progress goals at each Class I
  area and evaluate the relative importance of
  various emission reductions

4
VISTAS 12-km Modeling Domain
5
Modeled PM2.5 (mg/m3) July 18
2002 Base
2002 Typical
6
Modeled PM2.5 (mg/m3) July 18
2018 On the Books
2018 On the Way
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MACA Reasonable Progress Goal
Need 80 Mm-1 between 2002 and 2018
30.3 dV 206.97 Mm-1
25.44 dV 127.28 Mm-1
8
Mammoth Cave (KY) 4 days
Need 80 Mm-1 between 2002 and 2018
Need 61 Mm-1 from 2018 OTW
Get 19 Mm-1 from 2018 OTB
30 Reduction from 2018 OTB
9
Mammoth Cave (KY) - 4 days
Need 80 Mm-1 between 2002 and 2018
Need 61 Mm-1 from 2018 OTW
Get 19 Mm-1 from 2018 OTB
30 Reduction from 2018 OTB
10
EVER Reasonable Progress Goal
20.9 dV 80.85 Mm-1
18.38 dV 62.83 Mm-1
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EVER Required Reductions
Bext2002 Bext2018 80.85 Mm-1 62.83 Mm-1
18.02 Mm-1 On the Books
Regulations reduces extinction by 1.63 Mm-1 Need
an additional reduction of 18.02 Mm-1 - 1.63
Mm-1 16.39 Mm-1
12
Everglades (FL) 1 day
Need 16 Mm-1 from 2018 OTW
Need 18 Mm-1 between 2002 and 2018
Get 2 Mm-1 from 2018 OTB
30 Reduction from 2018 OTB
13
UPBU Reasonable Progress Goal
25.3 dV 125.54 Mm-1
21.68 dV 87.42 Mm-1
14
Upper Buffalo (AR) 5 days
Need 38 Mm-1 between 2002 and 2018
Get 20 Mm-1 from 2018 OTB
Need 18 Mm-1 from 2018 OTW
30 Reduction from 2018 OTB
15
Geographic CPP SO2 Emissions
Mountain Coastal
Non-VISTAS
4
( of days in red)
2
2
2
2
1
2
3
1
1
2
5
1
5
4
4
4
3
3
1
2
0
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Preliminary Observations and Conclusions
17
20 Best Days

• There is an overall improvement in visibility at
  most sites when the 2018 OTB is compared to the
  2002 Typical
• GSM, Linville, Breton, Dolly Sods, Mingo,
  Okefenokee, and Wolf Island have slight
  degradation
• 2018 OTW does not show degradation in visibility
  at any sites

18
20 Worst Days

• SO2 reductions showed the largest benefits at all
  sites
• NOx and Primary Carbon sensitivities show the
  second largest benefits at most sites
• NH3 sensitivities had significantly smaller
  impacts on visibility
• Manmade and biogenic VOC sensitivities showed
  negligible changes in visibility

19
20 Worst Days

• Reductions in elevated SO2 point sources were
  significantly more effective than ground level
  SO2 sources
• Of these elevated SO2 sources, VISTAS coal fired
  power plants (CPP) showed the most benefit
• VISTAS non-power plant (NPP) SO2 and non-VISTAS
  Elevated Point SO2 each showed about 25 of the
  VISTAS CPP response
• Can only draw preliminary conclusions for
  geographic influences since not all key
  meteorological conditions were represented

20
2018 OTW Summary

• Will VISTAS Class I areas meet the reasonable
  progress goals in 2018 with CAIR?
• YES (gt5 Mm-1 above goal)
• MACA, GRSM, LIGO, SHRO, JARI, SIPS, COHU, OKEF,
  WOLF, SAMA, UPBU, BRET
• MAYBE (within 5 Mm-1 of the goal)
• SHEN, CHAS, HEGL, CACR
• UNDETERMINED (due to conflicting information)
• ROMA, SWAN, MING, BRIG (?)
• NO (gt5 Mm-1 below goal)
• DOSO (?), EVER (?)
• These conclusions are based on a limited data set
  (sometimes as few as 1 day) and should be viewed
  as very PRELIMINARY and subject to change once
  the annual 2018 simulation is completed.

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Reasonable Progress for 2018 OTW?
.
.
.
.
Preliminary Results
Yes No Maybe Undetermined
.