SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND NUCLEAR ENERGY

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SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND NUCLEAR ENERGY
Hans-Holger Rogner Section Head, Planning and
Economic Studies Section International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) Vienna, Austria
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A sustainable energy system can be defined in
terms of the following seven compatibility
criteria

• Economic compatibility
• Sustainable energy services must be accessible
  and affordable. Their prices must cover the full
  cost to society, i.e., external costs should be
  internalized.
• Environmental compatibility
• The inputs and outputs to and from each link of
  the energy system chain must minimally intrude
  upon natures flows and equilibria, i.e., do not
  overload the carrying capacity of ecosystems.
  Decommissioning of energy technologies, fuel
  cycles and infrastructures, which both returns
  occupied land to green space and recycles
  material, must be technically and economically
  feasible.

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• Sociopolitical compatibility
• The technology links of the sustainable energy
  system must be tolerated by the general public.
  Satisfying the preceding criteria will prove
  instrumental in influencing public perceptions
  and attitudes.
• Intergenerational compatibility
• Energy services must be based on inexhaustible
  energy sources or the use of finite sources that
  lead to the creation of sustainable substitutes
  (weak sustainability). Wastes from the energy
  system must not pose a risk to future
  generations.
• Geopolitical compatibility
• Ideally, energy sources should be evenly
  distributed geographically, allow for secure
  supplies and pose no threat to the security of
  other countries.

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• Demand compatibility
• The quality of energy services cannot be
  inferior to the equivalent services provided by
  the established system rather it must have the
  potential of becoming significantly better.
  Supply densities must match demand densities.
• Surprise Resilience
• In as far as possible, the system components
  must be resilient to geopolitical, technological,
  economic and environmental surprise-or any other
  surprising category of surprise.

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The present energy system Unsustainable?

• Modern energy services are not accessible to some
  2 billion people.
• Non-commercial (traditional) energy use has led
  to deforestation, soil erosion and diminishing
  ground water levels.
• Human health is threatened by high levels of
  pollution resulting from its use at the
  household, community, and regional levels.
• Closing the fossil fuel cycle through the
  atmosphere generates a host of energy-linked
  emissions such as
• suspended fine particles and precursors of acid
  deposition which contribute to poor local air
  quality and degradation of ecosystems.
• anthropogenic greenhouse gases which are altering
  the atmosphere in ways that already has a
  discernible influence on the global climate
  system.

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The present energy system Unsustainable?

• Some energy chains create long-lived wastes that
  are not disposed of in an inter-generationally
  equitable manner.
• Current oil supplies originate from politically
  sensitive regions resulting in supply security
  concerns and potential geopolitical conflicts.
• Externalities are generally not internalized.
• Producers cannot recover costs.
• Some technologies such as nuclear or some
  renewables encounter socio-political acceptance
  problems.
• Fossil resources are finite does the present
  generation create sufficient capital knowledge
  to compensate future generations (weak
  sustainability criterion)?

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Therefore, economic development is a prerequisite
for sustainable development!
Sustainable energy development and the protection
of the environment and are matters of
affordability!
But economic development requires

• Availability and accessibility of energy services
• Affordability of basic energy services
• Reliability of energy services

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Environmental Kuznets Curve
Low technology use, externalities not
internalized, subsidized resource use, poorly
defined property rights, no liability
Degradation or kWh/cap
Ecological threshold
Per capita income
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GDP per Capita versus Electricity Use per Capita
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Present Economics of Electricity Generation

• Because of market deregulation and
  liberalization, one needs to distinguish between
  existing generating stations and new capacity
  additions.
• Most existing nuclear and hydro power plants have
  been fully depreciated. Low fuel costs, steady
  improvements in their availability and other cost
  curbing efforts such as streamlining of
  operations or consolidation enable nuclear power
  operators to operate successfully in the most
  competitive markets.
• Life time extension - the incremental component
  replacement of existing nuclear plants or
  refurbishment of hydro stations - is an
  attractive low cost electricity generating option.

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Electricity Generation in a Competitive Market
Revenues
Long-Run Competitive Range
FIXED
FIXED
Competitive Short-Run Electricity Price
O M
FIXED
O M
O M
Fuel
Fuel
Fuel
COMPETITIVE
COMPETITIVE WITH STRANDED OR DEPRECIARED
INVESTMENT
SHUTDOWN WITH STRANDED INVESTMENT
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Average Availability of 420 Nuclear Power Stations
Source IAEA-PRIS, 1999. Year 2000 Estimate
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Average Electricity Generating Cost Structure of
New Power Plants
Discount rate 10
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Impact of Doubling of Fuel Prices on Generating
Costs
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Impact of Doubling of Fuel Prices on Generating
Costs
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The Economics of Nuclear Power

• High up-front capital costs and long amortization
  periods.
• Electricity market deregulation/privatization.
• Smaller utilities tend to have less clout in
  raising large sums of up-front capital, and
  private investors demand a risk premium for their
  involvement.
• Therefore, the nuclear industry is challenged to
  develop advanced reactors of small and
  medium-size with
• load following capability, also suitable for
  smaller electric grids,
• high levels of standardization and modulization,
• drastically reduced construction times, and
• lower capital costs
• without compromising rather improving operating
  safety.

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EXTERNAL COSTS
Note Externalities of greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions, i.e., of climate change not included
Source Adapted from European Commission (1995)
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The Economics of Nuclear Power

• If nuclear power is not competitive on its own,
  owners will shut it down.
• If nuclear is not operated at highest safety
  levels, regulators will shut it down.
• If the industry does not innovate continuously,
  nuclear power will fall behind the competition
  and investors will simply ignore.

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TECHNOLOGY LEARNING COSTS AND BENEFITS
Learning costs
Specific investment costs (/kW)
Level of present competitiveness
Future learning benefits
Learning benefits
Cumulative investments
Cumulative MW experience
Time
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Nuclear Power and the EnvironmentThe Waste Issue

• A 1,000 MWe nuclear power plant produces annually
  
• some 30 tonnes of high level radioactive spent
  fuel
• 800 tonnes of low and intermediate level
  radioactive waste.
• Significant reductions in the volume of low level
  waste can be made through compaction.
• A 1,000 MWe coal fired power plant generates
  annually some 320,000 tonnes of ash containing
  about 400 tonnes of heavy metals and radioactive
  material from combustion alone without
  considering energy chain activities such as
  mining and transportation.

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Two Alternative Strategies
ATMOSPHERE Partial removal to
solid waste SO2 NOX CO2
TOXIC
POLLUTANTS SOLID WASTE
GROUND DISPOSAL
shallow DISPERSION STRATEGY
RADIOACTIVE WASTE Volume reduction GROUND
DISPOSAL shallow or deep CONFINEMENT STRATEGY
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Nuclear Power Intergenerational Compatibility

• Intergenerational equity concerns allege that
  todays energy supply practices may severely
  limit the energy options available to future
  generations and compromise the quality of the
  environment these will inherit.
• Fossil resources are finite, and will, if current
  fossil fuel consumption patterns continue, not be
  available for use by future generations (though
  in the very long run).
• Uranium so far has no alternative use and is
  plentiful.
• Nuclear power utilizing reprocessing of spent
  fuel and breeding could virtually de-couple
  itself from energy resource related
  intergenerational issues (weak sustainability).
• As regards the nuclear waste issue, the
  quantities of long-lived isotopes potentially
  affecting intergenerational equity are small and
  must be compared to, and weighted against the
  waste streams of alternative energy supply
  options.

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Wastes in Fuel Preparation and Plant Operation
Million tonnes per GWe yearly
0.5
Flue gas desulfurization
Ash
0.4
Gas sweetening
Radioactive (HLW)
0.3
Toxic materials
0.2
0.1
0
Nuclear
Natural
Coal
Oil
Solar
Wood
PV
gas
Source IAEA, 1997
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Nuclear Power and Geopolitical Compatibility

• Sixty-five percent of proven oil reserves are
  located in a single region of the world - the
  Middle East.
• Natural gas pipelines can be thousands of
  kilometres in length and pass through a number of
  countries on the way to the consumer.
• Hydropower can depend on watersheds fed by
  several countries.
• A secure and diverse energy supply mix that
  reduces reliance on energy imports and safeguards
  against international market price volatility.
• Where indigenous fossil resources are lacking,
  nuclear power can contribute substantially to
  supply security as it does, for instance, in
  Finland, France, Hungary, Sweden, the Republic of
  Korea or Japan.

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Nuclear Power and Geopolitical Compatibility

• Non proliferation
• There is also the public concern that the use of
  nuclear power might foster the spread of nuclear
  weapons and geopolitical instability.
• Spent fuel from commercial nuclear power reactors
  contains only limited amounts of plutonium which
  is of a quality not readily adaptable for weapons
  production even where the ability to separate it
  from spent fuel exists.
• The production of viable weapons from spent fuel
  would require large-scale, sophisticated efforts
  including chemical processing and handling
  procedures which, while within the potential
  reach of a handful of Governments, are virtually
  impossible for terrorists.

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Nuclear Power and Geopolitical Compatibility

• Non proliferation
• To eliminate the production or diversion of
  weapons-grade materials, the permanent Treaty on
  the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) of
  1970 commits 185 countries to refrain from
  acquiring nuclear weapons and to accept
  comprehensive IAEA safeguards on all their
  nuclear activities.
• Advanced reactor technologies and fuel cycles may
  include inherent barriers to the potential
  diversion of fissile materials.
• If reprocessing is perceived to pose too high a
  proliferation risk, there are sufficient low
  concentration uranium occurrences that could
  support once-through fuel cycles for centuries.

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Nuclear Power and Sociopolitical Compatibility

• Disposal of high level radioactive waste,
  operating safety and possible weapons
  proliferation are seen as unresolved issues
  among the media and interest groups.
• One has to put nuclear wastes into perspective
  with waste streams associated with other
  technologies.
• Technological solutions to high level radioactive
  waste disposal exist but could not yet be
  demonstrated because of lack of political
  support.
• Irrespective of the future of nuclear power,
  waste disposal needs to be eventually resolved.
• Public concerns are not something written in
  stone.

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Nuclear Power and Sociopolitical Compatibility

• Radiation effects
• The fear of radiation health effects is central
  to public concerns about nuclear power
  activities.
• Radiation is a fact of everyday life.
• Only 11 of radiation exposure is man-made and
  almost totally due to medical exposures. Nuclear
  power related activities add a minimal 0.006.
• Natural background exposure is location dependent
  with exposures in high radon gas locations some
  10 to 20 times the global average not uncommon.
• Radiation associated with nuclear power is
  heavily regulated, controlled and far below non
  regulated levels of non-nuclear industrial
  processes.

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Nuclear Power Matching Demand and Supply

• Historically, industrialization has also been a
  process of urbanization, essentially fostered by
  the diverse economic opportunities offered by the
  agglomeration of manufacturing, commerce and
  administration.
• Large metropolitan areas require distinctly
  different energy supply structures than rural
  areas because of the vastly higher energy demand
  densities of modern cities.
• While distributed power generation has its merits
  in sparsely populated areas, central base load
  generation such as nuclear power will remain
  necessary for meeting high density metropolitan
  electricity requirements.

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Nuclear Power and Climate Change

• Along the a full source-to-electricity chain
  including indirect emissions, nuclear power
  generates two orders of magnitude less CO2 and
  virtually no air pollutants responsible for local
  and regional environmental degradation.
• Currently avoids some 8 percent of CO2 emissions
  (some 0.6 GtC) globally.
• A significant potential environmental impact
  could arise from abnormal events, the probability
  of which is negligibly small in modern nuclear
  power plants.

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Global CO2 Avoided Annually by Nuclear and
Hydropower
20
Total
15
10
Global CO2 avoided ()
Hydro
Nuclear
5
0
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
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NUCLEAR POWER More than just electricity
generation
Reactor type
1,100
1 District heating, seawater
1,000
desalination
5
900
2 Petroleum refining
3 Oil shale and oil sand processing
800
4
Temperature ( 0 C)
4 Refinement of hard coal and lignite
700
5 Hydrogen and water splitting
3
600
HTGR
500
2
AGR
400
300
LMFR
Use / Application
200
1
LWR
100
HWR
0
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Sustainable Energy Systems Summary

• There is NO technology with out risks, emissions
  and wastes (directly or indirectly).
• Current technology related problems have often
  been previous solutions to earlier problems.
• Technology is dynamically evolving and includes
  surprise.
• Sustainable energy systems should avoid lock-in
  or lock-out effects.

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Sustainable Energy Systems Summary

• Nuclear power is not, and cannot be, the single
  technology solution to sustainable energy
  development.
• But for sure it can be part of the solution.
• Diversification will always be a virtue.
• Look for local solutions first.
• Use Weak sustainability as a guide or template.
• Nuclear power is consistent with weak
  sustainability.

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Policies for Sustainable Energy
Although sustainable technology options are
available today, the transition to sustainable
energy systems will not happen without policy
support in the areas of

• Technology development and innovation
• Early adoption and niche market applications?
  Moving down the learning curve

• Energy sector reform
• Level playing field
• Full cost pricing
• Internalization of externalities
• Technology transfer
• Capacity building