Title: Large scale change through a small window'
1Large scale change through a small window.
Philip F. Henshaw id_at_synapse9.com
UDATE 10 JAN 06
2The whole history of growth
Probably 3 ½ per year average since the early
Renaissance
640 years Only 8 80yr lifetimes Productivity
increase by factor of 4 Billion
1347-51
From every age the future was just off the page!
Can we continue?
3The whole history of growth
3 ½ per year since the early Renaissance
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4A century of growth
5A century of growth
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6A lifetime of growth
7A lifetime of growth
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8A decade of growth
9The decade of growth
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10The last 100 years
Issues of limits, over-burden of complexity,
divergence
To judge the approach of climax, you look for the
symptoms
11Fast Slow
Recorded growth phases of natural systems
Gamma ray burst 1/20 sec
Plankton evolution 2 Myr
12Phases of natural system evolution
Complex system change builds up tapers off,
using proportional change feedback mechanisms
2 steps of Self organization
2 steps of breakup and decay
13Possible growth futures
When physical climax occurs, choosing whether to
keep trying to provide perpetual growth for the
financial one.
Continually evolving climax free market
growth to collapse for
after using up the easy stuff just scrape bye
14Possible growth futures
growth to collapse for
A well oiled machine serving all
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