Introduction to this meeting

1
Introduction to this meeting
CAWSES space weather meeting,
11-12 Sep 2004, Beijing

• K. Shibata
• Kwasan Observatory
• Kyoto Unversity

2
contents

• What is CAWSES ? (based on Dr.
  Basuppt
• in Sapporo 2003
• and in Paris 2004)
• Space weather researchfrom solar physics point
  of view
• (based on Shibatas ppt in Sapporo 2003)

3
CAWSES Climate and Weather of the
Sun-Earth System

• Sunanda Basu
• Chair, CAWSES Science Steering Committee
• Presented by M. Geller
• CAWSES Bureau and General Meeting
• Sapporo, 12 and 13 July 2003

4
CAWSES Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth
System

• The New SCOSTEP Program for
• 2004-2008

Composite picture created at NOAA-NGDC by Dr.
Peter Sloss from SKYLAB solar X-ray telescope
picture by Naval Research Laboratory and
bathymetry and topography databases archived at
NGDC.
5
Strategy

• Collect data records to document with increasing
  fidelity various aspects of the Sun-Earth system.
• Use physically based models for assimilating
  observed data and deriving enhanced outputs for
  segments of the solar-terrestrial system.
• Mobilize SCOSTEP researchers to work together to
  understand variability throughout the entire
  solar-terrestrial system.

6
CAWSES Meetings - Past Future

• First CAWSES SSG Meeting held at Maastricht, The
  Netherlands on August 24-25, 2002
• Four themes approved by SCOSTEP Bureau at Rio de
  Janeiro, Brazil, Sept 28-30, 2002
• Theme leaders presented their plans at a Town
  Hall Meeting on April 8, 2003 during the EGS/AGU
  Joint Assembly in Nice, France
• A special CAWSES Meeting was held on July 5, 2003
  in conjunction with the IUGG Meeting at Sapporo,
  Japan
• Membership of the thematic groups was considered
  at the Sapporo Meeting
• Election of new SCOSTEP Executives and
  presentation of CAWSES Reports at Sapporo on July
  12 and 13.

7
Four Themes under CAWSES
Solar Influence on Climate

Space Weather Science and Applications
Atmospheric Coupling Processes
Climatology of the Sun-Earth System
8
2. Space Weather Science and Applications
Co-Chair- Janet Kozyra, U. of Michigan,
USACo-Chair - K. Shibata, Kyoto University,
Japan

• Proposed campaign framework that views the whole
  earth as an instrument for making key space
  weather observations. CAWSES could
• Recruit and coordinate needed observing sites
• Identify and collaborate with major programs
  worldwide (Spaceship Earth, Intermagnet, GEDAS,
  CNOFS, etc.)
• Set up website and needed technology in
  collaboration with other programs like ILWS, eGY,
  etc.
• Organize world-wide analysis campaigns on
  particular themes or for selected events (from
  NICE Mtg.)

9
2. Space Weather Science and Applications

• Impacts on space technology and operations
• Effects on humans in space
• Telecommunications interruptions
• Vulnerability of Earth-surface systems
• Navigation upsets
• Effects on high-altitude aircraft passengers and
  crew
• Model development through quantitative
  understanding of multi-scale coupling in the
  Sun-Earth system
• (from NICE Mtg.)

10
2. Space Weather Science and ApplicationsPotenti
al Worldwide Campaigns

• Predictive Models of the Space Environment
• Post event analysis to test predictive models
• Analysis of physical processes that occurred
  reasons predictions succeeded or failed
• Test research models against operational
  predictions
• Document Actual Effects on Life Society for
  Events
• Power grid loading
• Satellite anomalies
• Communications problems
• Sun-to-Earth Analysis Campaigns for Selected
  Events
• Coordinate CAWSES worldwide maps with other
  satellite and ground-based data to create global
  view of events
• Coordinate efforts of worldwide research
  community to analyze and interpret comprehensive
  data sets
• Apply new knowledge of complex system to
  understanding predicting space weather effects
  on society (from NICE Mtg)

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2. Space Weather Science Applications
Working Group Panel Janet Kozyra (USA), Kazunari
Shibata (Japan) Possible Members Walter
Gonzalez (Brazil), Rainer Schwenn (Germany), A.A.
Petrukovich (Russia), Wei Feng Xi (China), R.
Sridharan (India), Alain Hilgers
(Netherlands) 2.1 Solar Processes Producing
Space Weather 2.2 Sun-Earth System Elements and
Linkages that determine the severity of space
weather disturbances
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Space Weather Science Applications (cont.)

• 2.3 Space Weather Data Product Implementation
• 2.3(a) One-Earth data set analysis and
  integration
• Solar H-a (an initial effort) - TBD
• Magnetometers (an initial effort) - Ian Mann
  (Canada), Brian Fraser (Australia), Valodya
  Papitashvili (USA), Kazuo Shiokawa (210 chain
  Japan), INTERMAGNET, Russia?, Denmark?, Mark
  Moldwin (USA)
• GPS ionospheric data - Tony Mannucci (USA), TBD
• Neutral winds, sprites and jets, and gravity
  waves
• (collaboration with Theme-3)
• 2.3(b) "One-Earth" Information Technology
• (e.g. Virtual Observatory, GEDAS, SPIDR, ...)

13
Perspectives on CAWSES

• CAWSES is an ambitious program that builds on and
  leverages the broad SCOSTEP programs STEP and
  S-RAMP and more specialized Post-STEP programs.
• CAWSES is particularly timely.
• Successful implementation of CAWSES will provide
  an integrated scientific framework for
  solar-terrestrial research in the future, and
  provide an informed basis for guiding later
  programs under different solar conditions and
  changing anthropogenic influences and as made
  necessary by new human institutions and
  technological advances.

14
CAWSES Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth
System

• Sunanda Basu
• Chair, Science Steering Committee,
• CAWSES
• CAWSES/SCOSTEP Meeting
• Paris, France
• July 16-17, 2004

15
SCOSTEP
SCOSTEPs mission to implement research programs
in solar-terrestrial physics that benefit from
international participation and that involve at
least two ICSU bodies. SCOSTEP Bureau

• President M. A. Geller
• Vice-president S. T. Wu
• Scientific Secretary J. H. Allen
• S. K. Avery (URSI)
• W. Baumjohann (IAGA)
• R. Fujii (COSPAR)
• B. Schmieder (IAU)
• F. W. Sluijter (IUPAP)
• T. Tsuda (IAMAS)
• M. Candidi (SCAR)

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CAWSES Scientific Steering Group

• Chair Sunanda Basu, BU, USA
• Jean-Louis Bougeret, CNRS, France
• Joanna Haigh, Imperial College, UK
• Yohsuke Kamide, STEL, Japan
• Arthur Richmond, NCAR, USA
• C.-H. Liu, NCU, Taiwan
• Lev Zelenyi, IKI, Russia
• P. Duggirala, Scientific Coordinator
• L. Vercauteren, Program Admin.

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Theme 1 Solar Influence on Climate Co-Chairs
Michael Lockwood (UK) and Lesley Gray (UK) WG
1.1 Assessment of Evidence for Solar Influence
on Climate Juerg Beer (Switzerland), William
Russow (USA), Ilya Usoskin (Russia), Judith Lean
(USA), Gerard Thuillier (France), Gerry North
(USA), Peter Stott (UK), Warren White (USA), Lon
Hood (USA), Karin Labitzke (Germany), Augusto
Mangini (Germany) WG 1.2 Investigation of
Mechanisms for Solar Influence on Climate Ulrich
Cubasch (Germany), Gerry Meehl (USA), Kuni Kodera
(Japan), R. Garcia (USA), David Rind (USA), Mark
Baldwin (USA), Charles Jackman (USA), Jon
Kristjansson (Norway) and Giles Harrison (UK)
Theme 2 Space Weather Science
Applications Co-Chairs Janet Kozyra (USA) and
Kazunari Shibata (Japan) Santimay Basu (USA),
Walter Gonzalez (Brazil), Nat Gopalswamy (USA),
A. T. Kobea (Ivory Coast), Anatoly Petrukovich
(Russia), Rainer Schwenn (Germany), Wei Feng Si
(China) and R. Sridharan (India)
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Theme 3 Atmospheric Coupling Processes Co-Chairs
Franz-Josef Luebken (Germany) and Joan Alexander
(USA) WG 3.1 Dynamical Coupling and its Role in
the Energy and Momentum Budget of the Middle
Atmosphere Martin Mlynczak (USA), William Ward
(Canada), David Fritts (USA), Nikolai Gavrilov
(Russia), S. Gurubaran (India), Maura Hagan
(USA), J. Y. Liu (Taiwan), Alan Manson (Canada),
Dora Pancheva (UK), Kauro Sato (Japan), Kazuo
Shiokawa (Japan), Hisao Takahashi (Brazil),
Robert Vincent (Australia) and Yi Fan (China)
WG 3.2 Coupling via Photochemical Effects on
Particles and Minor Constituents in the Upper
Atmosphere Charles Jackman (USA), Ulf Hoppe
(Norway), Manuel Lopez-Puertas (Spain), Daniel
Marsh (USA), James Russell (USA), David Siskind
(USA) WG 3.3 Coupling by Electrodynamics
including Ionospheric Magnetospheric
Processes Steve Cummer (USA), Peter L. Dyson
(Australia), Inez S. Batista (Brazil), Archana
Bhattacharya (India), Jorge Chau (Peru), Martin
Fullekrug (Germany), Gang Lu (USA), Roland
Tsunoda (USA), and M. Yamamoto (Japan) WG 3.4
Long-Term Trends in Coupling Processes
(inter-connected with 4.4)
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Theme 4 Space Climatology Co-Chairs Claus
Froehlich (Switzerland) and Jan Sojka (USA) WG
4.1 Solar Irradiance Variability Judit Pap (USA)
and Gerard Thuillier (France) WG 4.2 Heliosphere
Near Earth Leif Svalgaard (USA) WG 4.3 Radiation
Belt Climatology Takahiro Obara (Japan) WG 4.4
Long-Term trends in Ionospheric and
Upper-Atmospheric Variability (inter-connected
with 3.4) M. Jarvis (UK) and John Emmert (USA)
20
Space weather researchfrom solar physics point
of view
2003 July 5 at Sapporo, IUGG

• K. Shibata
• Kwasan Observatory
• Kyoto University

21
Contents

• Solar physics and space weather
• Science issue
• Future strategy
• Meeting
• International collaboration
• Ground-based observations
• Space observations
• Numerical simulations

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Solar physics and space weather

• Traditionally, solar physicists have not been
  interested in space weather. And, still now.
• This is very bad.
• One of the important purposes of our activity is
  to encourage closer communication between solar
  physicists and geophysicists.

23
Why solar physicists are notinterested in space
weather ?
24
The distance between the Sun and the Earth
became much shorter in these 10 years

• Common physical proccesses began to be discussed
  by two communities
• Magnetic reconnection
• Particle acceleration
• .
• Observations of CME significantly developed so
  that we can now discuss the Sun, solar wind,
  magnetosphere, and atmospheric phenomena with
  almost continuos data.

25
solar corona observed by Yohkoh

• Soft X-ray
• (1 keV)
• 2MK-10MK

26
Magnetic reconnectionin solar flares
27
Magnetic reconnection inthe Earths tail
28
outer corona, solar wind, and CME observed with
SOHO/LASCO
29
Solar wind observations(Kojima et al.)

• From Jacksons
• homepage

30
One good exmaple

• A giant arcade on April 14, 1994
• K. Shibata reported this arcade event in Yokoh
  gbo email, suggesting gigantic mass ejections
• A. McAllister read the gbo email and realized the
  possibility of a big magnetospheric substorm, and
  informed it to the electric power company of
  Chicato
• The company prepared by removing big transformer
  ( 5 - 10 M)
• Two days later, actually a big substorm occurred,
  but the transformer was safe !
• The company thanked US government, US government
  thanked NASA, NASA thanked Yohkoh team, Yohkoh
  team thanked me.

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Important subjects in solar physics

• Triggering and energy storage mechanisms of solar
  flares and coronal mass ejectons
• Coronal heating mechanism
• Solar wind acceleration mechanism
• Origin of magnetic field (dynamo)
• Origin of solar luminosity variation
• all are important subjects for space weather
  research

32
Future meetings

• ICSC (Gopalswamy)
• A session in 1st asia oceania geophysics meeting
  at Singapore in 2004 (Shibata)
• Cospar
• IAU
• many

33
proposal from the international Solar Cycle
Studies (ISCS)community by GopalswamyCAWSES
Project Theme 2 Space Weather Science and
ApplicationsProject title Sources of
Geomagnetic Activity

• Main topics for investigation
• 1. Solar sources Coronal Mass Ejections, Coronal
  Holes, Large-scale Magnetic structures and
  boundaries, Polar magnetic fields
• 2. Structure of the Heliosphere and
  interplanetary transport of solar eruptions
• 3. Solar energetic ions and electrons
• 4. Geospace Response to solar events

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Sources of Geomagnetic Activity (continued)

• Project team (to be completed)
• -------------------------------
• N. Gopalswamy (USA, Chair)
• B. V. Jackson (USA)
• V. Obridko (Russia)
• A. Prigancova (Slovakia)
• B. Schmieder (France)
• K. Shibasaki (Japan)
• D. Webb (USA, IAU Rep.)
• S. T. Wu (USA)
• ....
• Proposed schedule
• -----------------
• Small meeting in 2004
• Large meeting in 2005 (during the SCOSTEP
  Symposium)

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Proposal for Scientific Sessions of the First
ASIA-OCEANIAGEOPHYSICAL SOCIETY Annual Meeting,
July 5-9, 2004,

• title Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections
• Organizer
• K. Shibata
• S. T. Wu
• B. C. Low
• C. Fang

36
International collaboration project on
ground-based observations 1

• To put small H-alpha telescopes (H-alpha center,
  - 0.8A) at Japan, China, India, Europe, USA to
  enable continuous full-Sun observations of mass
  motion associated with flares and CMEs.
• 0.3 - 2 M

37
HaObservations
Flare Monitoring Telescope (FMT)(Hida Obs., Kyoto
Univ.)
Full Sun Ha?Ha0.8Å, continuum image On video
(2sec cadence) and CD-ROM(1min) with 4.2 arcsec
pixel
64mm aperture
Images of flares and prominence eruptions are
now open through http//www.kwasan.kyoto-u.ac.jp/H
ida/FMT/
H a 0.8 A
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Moreton waves

• flare associated waves observed in Ha
  (Moreton 1960)
• chromospheric manifestation of fast mode MHD
  shocks in the corona (Uchida 1968)

Hacenter
Ha0.8A,-0.8A
39
International collaboration project on
ground-based observations 2

• To put vector magnetograph telescopes at Japan,
  China, India, Europe, USA to enable continuous
  full-Sun observations of photospherc vector
  magnetic field.
• gt now constructing 20cm-25cm full Sun vector
  magnetograph telescope at Hida observatory of
  Kyoto Unversity.
• lt 4M

40

New ground-based telescope SMART (Hida
Observatory of Kyoto University, 2003 - )
observing full Sun Halpha and vector magnetic
fields every 1 minutes
consisting of 4 (two 25 cm and two 20 cm)
telescopes
SMART (solar magnetic activity research
telescope)
Vector magnetic field
H alpha image
41
Solar-B Mission Japan-US-UK collaboration 2006-

• Solar Optical Telescope (SOT)
• X-Ray Telescope (XRT)
• EUV Imaging Spectrometer (EIS)
• Science objectives
• coronal heating
• coronal dynamics and structure
• elementary processes such as reconnection
• emerging flux and dynamo

42
Other space missions
43
Numerical simulation projects

• International collaboration on development of
  useful MHD/hybrid/particle code and visualization
  software now we are developing CANS
  (Coordinated Astronomical
  Numerical Simulation code by
  Matsumoto, Yokoyama, et al. )
• International school for (space weather)
  simulation now domestic astro-MHD
  simulation summer school (2002
  September every year)
• 7th International Space Simulation School
  ISSS7 at Kyoto, 2005 Mar. 26-31

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Futue space weather meetings

• In Japan
• 2004 Nov. 24-26 space weather meeting at
  Hamamatsu (with Kozyra)
• 2005 Apr. 4-6 CAWSES meeting at Tokyo (with
  Akasofu and many foreigners)
• In Europe
• 2005 July 18-25 IAGA/IUGG at France

45
Electronic Proceedings

• We will make electronic proceeding including ppt
  files
• If you agree, please send your ppt file to me.
• Thank you.