Jack Smith,

1
Vignettes Foresight Glimpses on Selected
Dimensions of Prospective, Nano Futures

• Jack Smith,
• Director ST Foresight
• CRN World Care Conference
• September 11, 2007

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Foresight Disclaimer

• Foresight is a collaborative, sharing and
  challenging exercise
• It involves diverse individuals and organizations
  doing forward research together in search of
  better preparedness for surprise
• Nobody owns foresight outputs except those that
  actually participated
• This presentation does not represent Canadian
  government policy, nor the views of the National
  Science Advisor of Canada
• The presenter is representing his own expertise
  and reporting upon the insights of those who have
  joined him in exploring the uncertainties
  associated with foresight

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Current Mindsets are (Quite) Often Limited

• Heavier than air flying machines are impossible -
  Lord Kelvin, President Royal Society 1882
• The horse is here to stay, the automobile is a
  novelty - Bank Manager to Henry Ford 1908
• There is no likelihood man can ever tap the power
  of the atom - Robert Milliken, Nobel Prize in
  Physics 1923
• Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? - Henry
  Warner, Film Producer 1927
• There is a world market for about five computers
  - Thomas Watson IBM 1943
• We dont like their sound, and guitar music is on
  the way out - President Decca Records, rejecting
  the Beatles 1962

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Brockmans ListThe Next 50 Years

• Cybersphere information beams, portable
  tele-connection ubiquitous smart networks
• Bio-engineering bio-robotics, astro-biology,
  personal genomics embryo simulation, artificial
  life models
• Quantum math computing, teleportation,
  computational and emergent complexity
• Search for ETI and biophilic universes
• Neuro-sentience convergent cognition,
  computational pharmacology,neuro-regeneration
• Sub-terranean thermophilogy Triphibious
  flexible transport
• Nano-structural products, sensors, materials,
  fabrication and molecular tailoring

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Business 2.0 List

• Bio-interactive Materials - small sensing
  devices reside on or inside people, animals, and
  crops
• Bio-fuel Production Plants - ethanol, methanol,
  bio-diesel, eliminating dependence on foreign oil
  
• Bionics - the next-generation of sophisticated
  prosthetic limbs or even artificial organs
• Cognitronics - to link the brain directly to
  computers
• Genotyping - making the connection between DNA
  and specific physical attributes i.e. longevity,
  disease.
• Combinatorial Science - algorithms and computing
  to develop hypotheses by observing large amounts
  of data.
• Molecular Manufacturing - the building of complex
  atomic structures one atom at a time
• Quantum Nucleonics - tapping the energy of the
  atom for energy

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Fraunhofer-Germany Long Term Tech List

1. Smart Environments micro components, smart
   sensors, cyber bots
2. Man-Machine Cooperation intuitive
   brain-computer links
3. Polytronics plastics in displays, energy
   systems and virtual environments
4. Digital Medicine - imaging, simulations,
   medications via genomics, proteomics
5. Digital Logistics - automated commerce -
   transactions, storages, fleets
6. Integrated Production digital mass customized
   and virtual, flexible products
7. Adaptive Structures piezo-ceramics to dampen
   vibration, noise, save energy
8. Photonics Enablers- universal light controls
   medicine, electronics, materials
9. Nano-Ultra-Violet extreme ultaviolet
   nano-processing radiation applications
10. Simulation and Modelling - of everything
    quantum grid computing power
11. Customized Energy distributed, portable
    networks, less central power.

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What is Foresight?

• A set of strategic tools that support
  government and industry decisions with adequate
  lead time for societal preparation and strategic
  response.
• Anticipates multiple, plausible futures
• 5 25 year time horizon
• A rehearsal for potential futures
• Accommodates uncertainty diversity
• Highlights emerging opportunities threats

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Foresight Tools

• Environmental Scanning
• Scenario Planning
• Technology Mapping
• and Road-mapping
• Expert Technical Panels
• Robust Factor Analysis
• and Strategies Development
• Web Virtual Conferences
• Computerized Modelling
• and Dynamic Simulation

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Scenario Basics

• Stories With Implications
• Rich context
• Provocative diversity
• Relate to perceived needs opportunities
• Designate some edges choices, boundaries
• Consider also the opposites - and -

• Critical Parameters
• 4-7 is best, gt 10 confuses
• Plots are useful when transparent, consistently
  structured, concise
• Focus is critical to engage key stakeholders
• Challenges-evidence tests may be useful
• Balance of structure-free form helps ensure
  vibrancy
• Evocative names help recognition thematic links

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Foresight Systems Lenses

• Spheres of Influence
• Ecological
• Economic- Productive
• Socio-ethical
• Educational
• Geo-political
• Military-Intelligence
• Values Culture

• Relevance-Importance
• Plausibility
• Technical feasibility
• Probability
• Convergence character
• Disruptive potential
• Relative preference
• Relative expectation
• Instant Buzz Factor

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Effectiveness -Robustness

• Real uncertainties exposed, elaborated in
  different ways
• Consensus on risks leads to clear divides between
  positives and negatives - OR
• Strong and diverging pathways ensures issues and
  choices are clear with implications
• Stakeholders articulate and begin to advocate new
  opportunities, strategies for avoidance of
  threats
• Meta-insights emerge about the fundamental
  mission and its risk-reward systems

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Environmental Scanning

• Strategic Trends i.e. factors that shift as a
  result of change patterns, but we have little
  influence e.g. more nuclear equipped nations
  failing states proliferation
• Critical Drivers and Uncertainties i. e.
  discernible change patterns that may be amenable
  to stakeholder actions e.g. global security
  major ST developments
• Possible Shocks i.e. wild card, high impact,
  low probability events that alter fundamentals
  e.g. 9-11 Iran as a nuclear power

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Macro Shaping Trends

• Ambient Intelligence progress toward the
  Singularity
• Miniaturization of Technology
• Globalization of Capital, Terror , Disease,
  Eco-environment
• Anti-globalization of Biodiversity, Culture,
  Sustainability
• De-Carbonization of Energy Economy
• Harmonization - Standardization for Trade
• Migration, Multi-Culturalism of Populations
• Intensification, Differentiation, of Wealth
• Bi-polarization of religious Values and Secular
  Evolution
• Transformation, of Infrastructure Systems
• Virtualization, Digitization Integration of
  Business-Professions, Production, Communications,
  Entertainment, Education
• Acceleration of Knowledge Services as Economic
  Driver
• Proliferation of Surveillance - Security

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Key Societal Change Domains

• Demographics population shifts, immigration
  issues
• Science Technology genomics, biotech,
  convergence, nanotech, telecom energy
  innovations
• Environment carrying capacity, global ecology,
  treaties
• Attitudes, Values, Beliefs from opinion to
  religion to geopolitical impacts on culture,
  security-terror etc.
• Global Economy interdependent markets, trade,
  wealth shifts, productivity management of
  innovation
• Governance Institutions political
  organization, nascent, failed and rogue states
• Evident Threats - to civilization, growth
  economies infrastructure and to specific
  populations/segments

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ONSA Foresight 2004 - 06
Canadian Foresight ONSA Led Canadian Foresight ONSA Led
Challenges Results
Future fuel- technology options, alternatives to conventional oil Technology roadmaps for bio-fuels, hydrogen-fuel cells , unconventional hydrocarbons
Technological innovation for the Canadian Health System Technology maps and health commercialization advice identified new technologies and regulatory stewardship
ST for public safety and all hazards Canadian security Threat scenarios, ST strategies for the DRDC PSEPC Center for Security Science, links with USDHS, Proteus Critical Thinking Game
How to manage public anxieties re animal diseases and mass culls-disposal Technology-communications measures for the CFIA to manage RD and threats to public health, and strategies for proactive public anxiety reduction
How bio-products might factor into our future economy Scenarios and Canadian policy drivers for emerging bio-product markets and development paths
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ONSA Connections with Global Foresight Networks

• USA National Science Advisor, Cyber Security Task
  Force, National Science Foundation, National
  Intelligence Council, Director of National
  Intelligence
• UK Chief Scientist and Foresight Office
• Finland and Sweden Finnsight 2015, Swedish
  Foresight Laboratory - Vinnova
• European Commission DG Research Euro Research
  Area Foresight Network Institute for Prospective
  Technology Studies, Framework Program 7
• NISTEP Japan KISTEP Korea
• APEC Centre for Technology Foresight , Industrial
  Science and Technology and Energy Working Groups
• UN University Millennium Project
• Germany Futur France Futuris

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Foresight Process Overview
Define Project Topic
Review Current Situation
Identify Key Lenses
Answer Challenge Questions
Populate Each Scenario
Identify Change Drivers
Backcast to Present
Select Critical Drivers
Synthesis Recommendations
Identify Scenarios
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Three Revolutions in Science
Nanotechnology
ORNL Cray X1
Advanced Computation
Systems Biology
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Carbon Nanotubes Convergent Potentials
Electronic Properties
Structural properties Composites

• The best fieldemitters known
• Already developedfor field emission displays,
  lighting
• Molecular wires
• Semiconductingor metallic
• Single-electrontransistors demonstrated
• Ballistic transport(109 A/cm2) up to 1 mA per
  tube!

• Strongest material known to man
• 100 times stronger than steel,only one-sixth the
  weight
• Stiffness-to-weight ratio 40x higherthan that of
  aluminum
• Electrical conductivity betterthan copper
• Thermal conductivity greaterthan diamond
• Hollowgas storage, drug delivery
• Water filtration
• Actuationdemonstrated

Courtesy of Battelle - Dave Geohegan, ORNL
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Controlled Bio-Energy Convergence
Post-genomic biology offers the promise of
controlled design of energy systems
The Billion-Ton Vision Biomass Could Displace
30 or More of Our Current Transportation Fuel
Needs
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Research Methodology

• Each technology/application area was evaluated
  by each expert panel member on three relevant
  dimensions

• Commercial Potential
• Technical Feasibility
• Public Policy Issues

The midpoint of each team's evaluation are shown
in the following 3 diagrams
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Convergent Technologies for Health and Life
Sciences 2020
Anticipated Market Size

Anticipated Feasibility
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Convergent Technologies for Energy and the
Environment
Anticipated Market Size

Anticipated Feasibility
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Convergent Technologies for Water, Food, and
Bio-fuels 2020
Anticipated Market Size

Anticipated Feasibility
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Converging Technologies For Canada ?

1. "Clean Coal" technologies
2. Bio-nano-health Monitors
3. Implantable Nanoarrays for Livestock
4. "CO2 Sequestration" technologies
5. Environmental nanobiosensors
6. On-time Nano-vaccinology
7. "Biomass ? Biofuels" technologies
8. Medical "Tricorder"
9. Smart Agri-bio Nanoencapsulation
10. Food-tracking Nanotags
11. Directed Evolution Chips

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Extreme Views of Convergence
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Trends in Nanotechnology

• Smart materials with nano films, structures
• Integration of functions and structure in
  membranes, fabrics, fibers, self powered
  entities, biomimetic materials
• New environmental leaps in performance e.g water
  filtration and purification, biocidals,
  bioremediation and decontamination
• Nano sensor networks, tracking capacities
  nano-electro-mechanics (eg HVAC embedded)
• Wearable personalized nano sensors with data and
  communications capabilities
• Energy and power efficiencies improvements,
  battery power management
• Smart dust capability for widespread human ,
  environments surveillance
• Computational devices embedded in consumer,
  commercial goods
• Functional, programmable nanostructures for
  controlled drug delivery, performance of
  implants, protheses
• New devices, building materials and fabrics that
  incorporate nano film solar power and are climate
  responsive

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Trends in Biotechnology

• Control, improvements in living organisms
• Bio-sensing at the micro and nano level, micro
  and nano electromechanics
• Integration with wireless, RFID,
  photonics-molecular level cameras
• Tissue engineering, artificial organs, implants
  and protheses
• Targeted drug delivery and use of in vitro
  capacities
• Rapid scaleable bio-assays for molecule ID,
  medical diagnosis and forensics
• Personalized medicine using large data sets of
  patient information, disease statistics, gene
  sequences and genotypes
• Genetically modified insects to counter pathogen
  carriers
• In silico- computer testing and comprehensive
  modelling for drug characteristics, side effects
  and receptor simulation lab on chip
• Molecular recognition targeted drug delivery to
  organs, tumours

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Trends in Infotechnology Ambient Intelligence
(ICT)

• Progress toward ubiquitous access and
  embededness
• Open source collaborative tools and deeper peer-
  to peer functionality
• Continued migration towards device and functional
  convergence
• Infobased manufacturing, claytronics for
  distributed fabrication
• Broader object based nodes and networks so
  everything can be smart and connected
• Pervasive E Science and dynamic simulation and
  modelling
• Gaming for personal and organizational decisions,
  learning
• Emerging horizons for faster, exponentially more
  powerful encryption, quantum information
• Sustained info markets growth for surveillance,
  sensor networks, tracking capacities,
  nano-electromechanics
• Wearable, implantable personalized micro-nano-bio
  info sensors with data and communications
  capabilities

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Glimpses of the Nanocosm

• Targeted delivery of nano-scale pharmaceuticals
• Nanoparticles for cancer treatment
• Smart bio-nano materials and implants
• Nanosensor determined synthetic
• environments
• Nanosistors wavicles logic gates for
• molecular DNA based computing
• Impermeable, anti corrosive nano composite
  coatings
• Wearable polymer nano-electronics for
• portable, personal bio-cogno self monitoring
  computing
• Nanocosm by William Illsey Atkinson, Penguin
  Books Canada 2003

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The Big Uncertainty

• When, how and with what implications, nano
  level self assembly will be practical for not
  only new materials but new machines with new and
  amazing programmable capabilities

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Pathways Toward Self Assembly
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CRN Scenarios

• New Arms Race Secret Military Development
• Positive Expectations - Evolutionary Potential
• Molecular Anarchy Redemption
• Nano-Recede Elusive Drextech
• And Not a Drop to Drink
• Nano-Policy Crisis
• Breaking the Fever
• Newshound Notebook 2018