Real Deal Seminar

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(No Transcript)
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Real Deal Seminar
The U.S. and Washington Economies Current
Performance and Near Term Outlook
Stephen S. Fuller, PhDDwight Schar Faculty Chair
and University ProfessorDirector, Center for
Regional Analysis George Mason University

January 14, 2009
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GDP Percent Change(Real Dollars)

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U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change
2006 2010
Forecast gt gt gt gt gt gt gt gt gt


2006 2007 2008
2009 2010 2011
Source Global Insight
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National Indicators
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ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices
Non-Mfg
Mfg
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Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US
THOUSANDS
Nov - 2.05 Mil

Source BLS Establishment Survey
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Initial Unemployment Claims
Thousands
(4-week moving average)
350
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U.S. Unemployment Rate

6.7
Source BLS, Seasonally Adjusted
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Housing TrendsNew Existing Home Sales
(000s)
(000s)
Existing (left scale)
New (Rt Scale)
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Consumer Confidence
Present Situation
100
Expectations
Source Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional
Analysis
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U.S. Coincident Index
2005 2006
2007 2008
Oct. -1.6
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U.S. Leading Index
2005 2006
2007 2008
Oct. -3.5
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The Washington Economy
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US GDP and Washington GRP

Washington GRP
US GDP
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U.S and Washington Area Recent Recessions
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Annual Change in Jobs1991 2007Washington Metro
Thousands
Source BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Annual Job ChangeWashington Metro Area
000s
Annual Change Annual
Month-over-the-Year
2007
2008
Source BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Nov. 07 Nov. 08
Thousands
Washington 31,100
Ranked by Total Jobs
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15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment
RateNovember 2008

U.S. 6.5
4.4
Data not seasonally adjusted
Source BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Nov. 2007 Nov. 2008Job Change By Sector MSA
(000s)
Total 31,100
(Ranked by Size of Sector)
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Units Sold Percent ChangeBy SubregionAll
Housing Types

2007 2008
NVA
MSA
SMD
DC
Source MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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Total Active Listings Per SaleNovember Each Year
PW
LDN
FFX
ARL
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The Outlook
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Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s)
Average Annual Change 1990-2007 44,900
Source BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
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GDP/GRP 2000 - 2012

Washington
U.S.
Source Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional
Analysis
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www.cra-gmu.org
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Daytime Drama
On Behalf of The Real Deal
By Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. January
14, 2009
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As the World Turns (more slowly)
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Historic and Projected World Output Growth, 2004
through 2009
Source International Monetary Fund
2008-2009 data are projections
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Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global
Areas, 2009
Source International Monetary Fund
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Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2008 Growth
Source Yahoo! Finance
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Days of Our Lives
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Dow Jones Industrial AverageNov. 1998-Dec. 31,
2008
Source Yahoo! Finance
DJIA Lowest monthly numbers since July 2003
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Conference Board Consumer Expectations
IndexOctober 2001 through December2008
Source Conference Board
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Retail Food Services SalesJanuary 2001 through
November 2008
Source Dismal.com
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15-Year 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January
1995 through December 2008
Source Freddie Mac
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U.S. New Home SalesJanuary 1999 through November
2008
Source Economy.com, Census Bureau
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U.S. New Residential Construction January 1999
through November 2008
Source Economy.com
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Net Change in U.S. JobsJanuary 2000 through
November 2008
11/08 -533k
Over the last 12 months (Nov. to Nov.) the U.S.
lost 1,878k jobs
Source Economy.com, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Nov. 08 Largest monthly decrease in jobs since
Dec. 1974
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National Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector
GroupsNovember 2007 v. November 2008Absolute
Change
-1,870k All Told
Bush Scorecard Private Sector
1,989,000 Public Sector 1,709,000 Total
3,698,000
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
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ISM Manufacturing Index, Dec. 2001-Dec. 2008
Source ISM
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ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, Jan. 2008-Dec. 2008
Source ISM
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Maryland Nonfarm Employmentby Industry Sector
GroupsNovember 2007 v. November 2008

Absolute Change
MD Total 12.7K 0.5 US Total -1,870K
-1.4
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Baltimore MSA Nonfarm Employmentby Industry
Sector Groups (NSA) November 2007 v.
November2008Absolute Change
Baltimore MSA Total 1.2K 0.1
MD Total 12.7K 0.5 US Total
-1,870K -1.4
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Washington, D.C. MSA Nonfarm Employmentby
Industry Sector Groups (NSA)October 2007 v.
October 2008Absolute Change
DC MSA Total 27.0K 1.1 US Total -1,870K
-1.4
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
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MD County Unemployment Rates, Oct. 2008
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) November
2008

Source Bureau of Labor Statistics

• U.S. Unemployment Rate November 086.7

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Search for Tomorrow

• This is the depression of our times...
• The first half of 2009 will likely represent the
  economic nadir of this business cycle
• Commercial real estates slump is of relatively
  recent origin and will require roughly perhaps
  several years of adjustment
• Washington, D.C. is the new financial capital of
  North America.

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Thank You

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