Climate change adaptation: Land-based primary industry

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Climate change adaptationLand-based primary
industry

• Robyn Dynes, Jeremy Bryant, Paul Newton, Val
  Snow, Mark Lieffering (AgRresearch)
• Hamish Brown, Derek Wilson (Plant Food)
• Tim Payn Peter Beets (Scion)

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Land-based industries

• Export earnings
• 25b
• Employment
• 156 000 people in Ag, forestry Fishing
• 75 000 in food beverage manufacture ?
• food exports to world
• NZ feeds 17 million people

Source INFOS series http//www.stats.govt.nz/pro
ducts-and-services/infos/ AgResearch analysis.
http//www.stats.govt.nz/analytical-reports/labour
-market-statistics-2008.htm Food export
AgResearch analysis from MAF SONZAF (2008), ibid
year to 31 March 2008
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Land-based primary industry 25b
Source INFOS series http//www.stats.govt.nz/pro
ducts-and-services/infos/ AgResearch analysis)
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Our competitive advantage

• Temperate growing conditions
• relatively free of pests and diseases
• efficient production systems
• flexible and innovative producers
• farmers are consistently adapting
• Adverse weather events
• Commodity prices
• Labour shortage

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1990
2001
2008
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Planted Forests climate change impacts,
mitigation and adaptation
Impacts Productivity, weeds, pests and diseases,
fire, wind
Mitigation Carbon Forests Energy Forests Lower
GHG footprint
productivity
Adaptation Breeding strategies Siting and
silviculture New technologies
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Focus on fungal diseases

• Cyclaneusma and Dothistroma
• Needle cast fungi
• Prefers warm humid conditions
• Lower needle mass slower growth
• Sites with Cyclaneusma average 20 below maximum
  productivity
• Dothi can be treated (copper oxychloride)
• Up to 200,000ha sprayed annually
• No treatment for Cyclaneusma
• Adaptation responses
• Spraying
• Breed tolerant genotypes
• Plant different species
• Move the forests

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Possible impact of scenarios

• Scenarios suggest different impacts on the
  forests
• Regional differences are apparent

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Adaptation responses for fungal diseases

• Breed resistant genotypes
• Likely only to offset 25 of fungal impact
• Slow process
• Change species
• Other species do not get infected
• Only good if productivity as high as for current
  species
• Move the forests
• Focus on warmer sites where rainfall remains _at_
  today's levels
• Land price and infrastructure issues
• More chemicals
• Only works for dothistroma
• Added costs, lower profitability

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Adaptation Strategies for Planted Forests

• Improved understanding of climate effects on
  forest processes
• In depth scenario analysis to drive development
  of adaptation strategies
• National approach to development of adaptation
  strategies
• A portfolio of approaches will be needed and
  will include
• New genotypes, new forest systems, establishment
  of forests on different sites

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Broad acre cropping the arable sector

• Grain
• Wheat, Barley, Oats, Maize, Peas
• Small seeds
• Grass, Clover, Vegetable, Forage
• Vegetable
• Potato, Sweet corn, Onions, Squash, Brassica
• Forages
• Cereal, Annual ryegrass, Brassica, Maize
• Pastoral Phase
• Grass/clover pastures

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Climate change the impact on cropping

• Increased production potential
• Doubling CO2 will increase growth 30
• Decreased duration
• Crops develop faster in higher temperature
• Crop growing areas shift
• Increased nutrient demand
• More N, P, K and S needed to exploit increased
  production potential

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Potential production (fully irrigated)
High carbon
Rapidly decarbonising
Current
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Water !!!

• East coast
• Hotter, windier, less rain, more variability
• Increased water demand in irrigated crops
• Decreased yield in dryland crops
• Greater chance of crop failure (multiple years)
• West coast
• More rain (on average), more variable (???)

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Water use and production
CO2
ET
- Rain
CO2
- Irrig
ET
- Rain
- Fertiliser
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Adaptation
in areas getting dryer
with adequate water

• Irrigated
• Increased crop demand
• More efficient irrigation systems
• More efficient crop species
• Irrigation schemes
• Dryland
• Less rainfall
• Drought avoidance techniques
• More resilient crops
• Financial buffers

• Ensure nutrient supply
• Exploit higher yield potential
• Longer duration crops
• Opportunities for multiple crops per year
• Wider variety of suitable crops

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Fruit Crop Impacts Adaptations

• Poor flowering from inadequate winter chilling
• New varieties with lower chill requirements
• Increased vegetative vigour
• Pruning strategies, dwarfing root stock, chemical
  flowering
• Fruit damage from extreme events (eg hail
  storms, sunburn)
• Longer growing season giving higher quality and
  yield
• Southward movement of production

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Pastoral sector adaptation lambs tailed/marked
per ewe put to ram

• Adaptive strategies
• grazing systems
• pasture quality
• Nitrogen
• ultrasonic pregnancy scanning
• Hogget mating.
• Improved ewe prolificacy.

Source sheep numbers and lamb numbers
spreadsheets at http//www.maf.govt.nz/statistics/
pastoral/livestock-numbers/, AgResearch analysis.
Years are to 30 June
(Photo AgResearch)
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Pastoral farming case study
Dairy Farm
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High/low carbon vs case study
Dairy Farm

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Manawatu dairy farms

• Clay sandy soils

2030
2080
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Soil map of part of the Manawatu
Palmerston North
Coastline
Manawatu River
Sandy soils
Clay soils
Tararua Ranges
15 km
Source http//gisportal.landcareresearch.co.nz
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Pasture production - increases in Manawatu
Annual production Tonnes dry matter 2000
10.7 2030 12.0 2080 12.4 2000
9.4 2030 10.6 2080 11.5
EcoMod
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Pasture quality declines

• change pasture composition
• invasion C4 grasses

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Pastoral farming case study
Dairy Farm

• Manawatu
• 128 hectares
• calve mid to late July
• 260 days in milk
• 340 kg milksolids/cow
• Conservation of hay and silage
• buy-in maize silage
• no nitrogen fertiliser

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Cows produce less milk

• despite growing more grass
• Less energy less milk

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Production and profitability decline
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Adaptation- the opportunities

• more grass
• lower quality
• cows must be allowed to eat more
• high risk further decline quality

Target matching pasture cover
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Adaptation- the opportunities
Adaptation
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Adaptation captures the benefits-more milk
Adaptation strategies

• Earlier calving date
• more milk in July/Aug
• Higher stocking rates
• more milk overall
• change with time

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Adaptation the bottom line
More cows
Cows eat more
Cows milk for longer
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Adaptation Land-based industries

• unknown
• weeds, pests, diseases
• systems complexity
• unintended consequences
• community regulator impacts
• Adverse events high cost to business
  community
• storms
• flooding
• fire

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Adaptation Land-based industries

• adaptation incremental change business as
  usual
• enterprise resilience will depend on manager
  responses
• Perceived risk
• Tools and strategies to respond
• tools, technology and knowledge available in
  many areas
• More tools required
• Higher technical skills required for success
• adopting these tools within complex farming
  systems farming within multiple pressures is the
  real challenge.
• unintended consequences
• GHG production
• Impact of regulation
• Community expectations

• Current strategies will only in-part meet
  tomorrows issues

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Thank you
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Acknowledgements

• Barbara Hock, Lucy Manning Geospatial analysis
• Lindsay Bulman background information on fungal
  diseases
• FRST for support through the Mitigation of
  Climate Change and the Role of Forests Programme
  CO4X04706

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Simulations

• Pasture production and quality simulated using
  EcoMod
• Dairy farm system impacts and adaptation explored
  using Farmax Dairy Pro