Diapositiva 1

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• TACKLING CLIMATE CHANGE
• THE WAY FORWARD TO COPENHAGEN
• The Center for American Studies
• The Embassy of the United States of America
• Roma, February 17, 2009

Corrado Clini Director General Ministry for the
Environment, Land and Seaof Italy
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The IV ASSESSMENT REPORT ON CLIMATE
CHANGE According to the 2007 Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
some extreme weather events will become more
frequent, more widespread and/or more intense
during the 21st century. Climate change presents
a serious threat to security and prosperity
because of the destabilizing effects of storms,
drought, and floods. A global CO2 emissions
reduction by 30-50 should be reached in the
timeframe 2030-2050 to drive the stabilization of
CO2 concentration to a safe level ( 450-550 ppmv)
by the end of the century and avoid irreversible
changes in the climate system.
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A Conflict of InterestEnergy security and
Climate security
According to the WEO 2008 Reference Scenario,
global primary energy demand will grow by 1.6
per year on average in 2006-2030, from 11,730
Mtoe to just over 17,010 Mtoe, with fossil fuels
accounting for 80 of the worlds primary energy
mix in 2030. According to the IEAs Energy
Technology Perspectives 2008 ETP, primary
energy demand will continue to rise to 2050,
reaching 23,268 Mtoe. Due to strong economic
growth, slowed but not stopped by the current
financial and economical crisis, China and India
account for 51 of incremental world primary
energy demand in 2006-2030, while non-OECD
countries account for 87 of the increase in
global energy demand, with their share of world
primary energy demand rising from 51 to 62.
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World primary energy supply
2030 World primary energy demand Source IEA,
WEO 2008
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Energy-Related CO2 emissions by Region Non-OECD
countries account for some 97 of CO2 emissions
increase between now and 2030 - three-quarters
from China, India the Middle East alone.  
15
Rest of non-OECD
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2
China
9
Rest of OECD
Gigatonnes of CO
6
United States
3
0
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Source WEO 2006, International Energy Agency
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CO2 per capita emissions 1980-2030
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CO2 energy-related emissions will increase by 45
in 2030 and, according to IEA ETP 2008, by 130
in 2050 .
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CUMULATIVE INVESTMENT, 2005-2030
26 trillion
Electricity
56
Oil 21
11.3 trillion
4.3 trillion
Biofuels 1
0.6 trillion
3.9 trillion
Gas 19
Coal 3
Investment needs exceed 20 trillion 3
trillion more than previously projected, mainly
because of higher unit costs
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CUMULATIVE INVESTMENT, 2005-2050 demand-side
and supply-side over USD 250 trillion
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• STABILIZING CO2
• TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT, EQUITABLE GLOBAL BURDEN
  SHARING,
• AND FAIR COMPETITION IN THE GLOBAL ENERGY
  MARKET
• Stabilizing CO2 requires a global long term
  strategy (2050 at least) in
• research innovation and energy policies to
  reduce the carbon intensity of the economy
  through the development and dissemination of new
  renewable and energy efficiency technologies,
  biofuels, hydrogen, carbon sequestration, and
  nuclear power
• making the new clean and safe energy sources and
  technologies available and cost-effective in the
  emerging economies and in the developing world to
  address both energy security and emissions
  reduction
• To be effective in approaching CO2
  stabilization, the measures should be designed
  and implemented immediately.
• Considering the lifetime of power plants and
  industrial processes (20 to 50 years), and
  taking into account the IEA-estimated dimension
  of the investments in the global energy system in
  the next 30-50 years (26 to 250 trillion), the
  countries in the Climate Change Convention and
  in the World Trade Organization should consider
• an equitable global burden sharing of the
  reduction based on per capita emissions/GDP
• the introduction of rules in the global energy
  market for the application of progressive
• carbon intensity standard for the energy
  technologies
• a progressive carbon price to be applied to
  fuels and technologies

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TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT IN BLUE MAP SCENARIOIEA
ETP 2008 identifies the technology options to
meet 50 emissions reduction in 2050, according
to the 2008 G8 Summit Declaration, consistent
with the 450 ppm CO2 stabilization stabilisation
scenario.
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• ADDITIONAL INVESTMENT IN BLUE MAP SCENARIO
• An additional 45 trillion USD are required for
  meeting the BLUE Map scenario to cover
• additional RD investments in new technologies
  not yet market-competitive
• larger deployment and commercial investment in
  low-carbon options
• global dissemination of cleaner and more energy
  efficient technologies
• In BLUE Map, the marginal costs are negative for
  the end-use efficiency technologies, and up to
  200 USD per ton of CO2 are saved (500 USD as
  pessimistic forecast) for the development and
  deployment of the new technologies in the power
  sector and transportation, including higher-cost
  options such as CCS in industry and alternative
  transport fuels.

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MARGINAL COSTS IN BLUE MAP
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THE CHALLENGE OF ADAPTATION Climate change can
act as a threat multiplier for instability in
some of the most volatile and poor regions of
the world. Africa and parts of Asia are
particularly vulnerable given their locations and
their limited governmental capacities to respond
to flooding, droughts, and declining food
production. Like armed attacks, some of the
effects of climate change could swiftly kill or
endanger a large number of people and cause such
large-scale disruption that local public health,
law enforcement, and emergency response units
would not be able to contain. The Stern Review
estimated that it would cost developing countries
between 4 billion and 37 billion/year to
minimize the climate change damage. The Global
Environment Facility (GEF) adaptation funds
amount to about 215 million their scale should
be dramatically expanded. A modest investment in
adaptation in poor countries will be much more
effective than responding to state failure or
humanitarian disasters through military and
relief operations.
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EU and USA A New Joint Commitment
In 2000, the European Union and the USA failed
to find an agreement for the implementation of
the Kyoto Protocol. The European Union supposed
it could face the global climate change challenge
through a unilateral approach, and the USA
underestimated both the threat of climate change
and the role of climate change in driving
technological change in the energy system. The
double mistake of the EU and the USA should be
overcome before Copenhagen. The global climate
change challenge calls for the joint involvement
and commitment of the European Union and the USA
to design and implement a way forward to change
the global energy system and address adaptation
to climate change .
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EU and USA A New Joint Commitment

• The negotiations for an agreement in Copenhagen
  are difficult because of the multiple issues
  involved and because of the different historical
  approaches between the Parties involved.
• EU and USA could and should change the
  international context of the negotiations,
  building a bilateral concrete platform for the
  development of
• common standards in the energy and
  transportation technologies to move towards a
  low carbon economy
• joint measures to incentivize clean energy and
  transportation technologies
• joint partnerships with Brazil, China, India,
  Mexico, South Africa for the deployment and the
  dissemination of low carbon technologies in the
  emerging economies
• joint projects to support the least developed
  countries with their adaptation to the effects of
  climate change
• The joint initiative of the EU and the USA will
  be
• more effective than years of negotiations.