Climate Change, vulnerability, adaptation: Poverty Eradication

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Climate Change, vulnerability, adaptation
Poverty Eradication
Presented by Md. Golam Rabbani
(golam.rabbani_at_bcas.net) Senior Research Officer,
Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies
UNEP General Consultation Meeting
25-26 October 2007 Seoul, South Korea
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Background

• Climate change is happening and it is a reality
• Most victims are poor, they loss more but recover
  less
• CC, significant barriers/challenge to meet MDGs
• CC enhances existing risks and vulnerabilities
• Flood, droughts, storm/cyclone, salinity
  intrusion etc destroys annual harvests of Asia
  and the Pacific
• Vulnerability is highest in LDCs in the tropics
  and subtropical areas

Source ADB and Others, 2003
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BackgroundIPCC Fourth Assessment Report

• Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined on
  average in both hemispheres. Widespread decreases
  in glaciers and ice caps have contributed to sea
  level rise
• Global average sea level rose at an average rate
  of 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003.
• Long-term trends from 1900 to 2005 have been
  observed in precipitation amount over many large
  regions. Significantly increased precipitation
  has been observed in eastern parts of North and
  South America, northern Europe and northern and
  central Asia.

Marr Glacier in Antarctica
Rapid thinning of the Greenland ice sheet
Rahman and Alam, 2007
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BackgroundIPCC Fourth Assessment Report

• Widespread changes in extreme temperatures have
  been observed over the last 50 years.
• Cold days, cold nights and frost have become less
  frequent, while hot days, hot nights, and heat
  waves have become more frequent

Marr Glacier in Antarctica
Rapid thinning of the Greenland ice sheet
Rahman and Alam, 2007
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Background
Najam et al., 2003 and Alam, 2007
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Sources of GHGs

• Energy Sector
• Energy Industry
• Manufacturing Industries
• Transport
• Residential Sector
• Commercial
• Agriculture

• Agriculture Sector
• Crop Agriculture
• Livestock and Manure Management-

• Landuse Change and Forestry
• Conversion of Land
• Consumption of Timber and Deforestation

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Future Changes in climate

• Rainfall
• Increased water availability in moist tropics and
  high latitudes
• Decreased water availability and drought in
  mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes
• Temperature
• Global temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1
  to 6.4C from 1990 to 2100 (best estimates 1.8 to
  5.4)
• Sea level rise
• Sea levels are likely to rise in the range of
  22-34 cm between 1990 and the 2080s
• Extreme events
• Likely that future tropical cyclones, typhoons,
  and hurricanes will become more intense, with
  larger peak wind speeds and more heavy
  precipitation
• Rahman and Alam, 2007

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Potential Impacts
Impacted Sectors

• Agriculture
• Water
• Energy
• Transportation
• Health
• Infrastructure
• Economy
• Disaster management

Temperature
Rainfall
Sea level rise
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Potential impactssome insights

• Safe Water supply ? at the same time that water
  demand ? in growing urban areas
• Over 25 of the developing world's urban
  population, including 392 million residents in
  Asia, lack adequate sanitation.
• Storage/treatment capacity would need to expand
  thus increasing system costs.

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Potential impacts

• Housing prices and insurance costs increase in
  flood zones
• Loss of property/land from sea level rise and
  subsidence

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Bangladesh Case

• Future primary physical effects in the Coastal
  Zone
• extreme events cyclone and tidal surges will be
  aggravated under climate change and
• coastal morphology change increased river bank
  erosion and Disturbance of the balance between
  river sediment transport and deposition in
  rivers, flood plains and coastal areas.

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Bangladesh Case
(Source NAPA-BD, 2005)
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Poverty a multi-dimensional and complex issue

• Poverty as Concept
• Poverty as concept has many meanings and
  interpretations and as used by different peoples
  in different contexts to describe different
  things. For examples
• Poverty at Global Level (e.g. total number of
  worlds poor)
• Income Poverty (mostly commonly used meaning,
  e.g. number of people on dollar a day)
• Relative Poverty (e.g. there are many poor in
  rich countries who are rich compared to all
  people in many poor countries)
• Poverty Level in-country (e.g. unemployed, number
  below poverty line, food rationing etc.)
• Poverty Line (e.g. different countries set their
  own)
• Poverty alleviation/reduction as a goal e.g. MDG,
  PRSPs

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Poverty Trend
Source World Bank 2001 (World Development
Report Attacking Poverty)
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What we can do to address climate change?
Adaptation and mitigation?

• Adaptation is necessary..
• Area of Adaptation
• Physical
• Institutional
• Social

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Adaptation

• Improved/good governance, including active civil
  society and open, transparent and accountable
  policy and decision making processes
• Mainstreaming climate change, climate issues into
  all national, sub-national, and sectoral planning
  processes (e.g. PRS, National Strategies for
  Sustainable Development)
• Community empowerment, they can participate in
  the assessment and feed their knowledge to
  provide useful climate-poverty information
• Access to good quality information, Early warning
  system helps to prevent disaster impacts
• Reducing vulnerability of resource base to
  climate change, variability and extreme events
  (e.g. embankment to protect from floods, cyclone
  centre, etc)

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Adaptation

• Providing Knowledge and Advice (e.g. agriculture
  extension for farmers)
• Giving technology (e.g. water pumps for
  irrigation, nets for fishing etc)
• Building climate proof infrastructure (e.g.
  roads, water etc.)
• Providing School and Education (e.g. free
  education)
• Providing health services (e.g. free for poor)
• Climate change fund/budget

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Adaptationsome specific measures

• Changes of cropping pattern
• Plant two or more crops instead of one or a
  spring and fall crop with a short fallow period
  to avoid excessive heat and drought in midsummer.
• For already warm growing areas, winter cropping
  could possibly become more productive than summer
  cropping.
• New crop varieties
• Flood, drought and saline tolerant varieties

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Adaptationsome specific measures

• Water supply, irrigation, and drainage systems
• Technologies and management methods exist to
  increase irrigation efficiency and reduce
  problems of soil degradation, but in many areas,
  the economic incentives to reduce wasteful
  practices do not exist.
• Increased precipitation and more intense
  precipitation will likely mean that some areas
  will need to increase their use of drainage
  systems to avoid flooding and water-logging of
  soils.

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AdaptationSome specific measures

• Use near-term climate predictions
• Accurate six-month to one-year forecasts could
  possibly reduce losses due to weather
  variability. For example, predictions of El Niño
  events have proven useful in regions where El
  Niño strongly affects weather.
• Other management adjustments
• Virtually all components of the farming system
  from planting to harvesting to selling might be
  modified to adjust to climate

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Few examples in Bangladesh

• Increase income through
• alternative livelihoods

• Duck Rearing
• Over 1500 people practicing as of September 2004

• Cage Aquaculture
• More than 100 adopters as of September 2004

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Few examples in Bangladesh

• Increase income through
• alternative livelihoods

• Vegetable farming
• Household level nurseries

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Few examples in Bangladesh

• Increase income through
• alternative livelihoods

• Vegetable farming at household level

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Few examples in Bangladesh

• Increase income through
• alternative livelihoods

• Floating gardens/farming

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• Thank you