Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

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Commercial AviationSafety Team (CAST)

• David Downey
• International Aircraft Fire and
• Cabin Safety Research Conference
• Lisbon, Portugal, November 2004

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In the U.S., our focus was set by theWhite House
Commission on Aviation Safety, and The National
Civil Aviation Review Commission (NCARC)
Reduce Fatal Accident Rate by 80
Strategic Plan to Improve Safety Improve
Safety Worldwide
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We Need to Continuously ImproveAviation Safety
Hull loss accident rate
4
We Need to Continuously ImproveAviation Safety
Airplanes in service
32,495
17,357
Boeing 11,693
2021
2002
Departures, Millions
Hull loss accident rate
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We Need to Continuously ImproveAviation Safety
Airplanes in service
32,495
17,357
Boeing 11,693
Hull loss accidentsper year
2021
2002
Business as usual
Departures, Millions
Hull loss accident rate
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Safer Skies
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
Controlled Flight
GENERAL AVIATION
Into Terrain
CABIN SAFETY
Aeronautical

Decisionmaking
Loss of Control
Passenger Interference
Loss of Control
Uncontained

Engine Failures
Weather
Passenger Seat Belt Use
Runway Incursion
Controlled Flight
Carry-on Baggage
Into Terrain
Approach and Landing

Child Restraint
Survivability
Weather
Turbulence
Runway Incursions
HUMAN FACTORS
IMPROVED DATA
IN OPERATIONS

ANALYSIS
MAINTENANCE
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CAST Goals

• Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal
  accident rate by 80 by 2007
• Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA,
  FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations
  and appropriate regulatory/ government
  authorities to reduce worldwide commercial
  aviation fatal accident rate

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Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
Industry
Government

• DOD
• FAA
• Aircraft Certification
• Flight Standards
• System Safety
• Air Traffic Operations
• Research
• NASA
• ICAO
• JAA
• TCC
• NATCA
• NTSB

AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing PW RA
A FSF
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
IATA AAPA ATAC APFA
Representing GE and RR Observer
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Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
CAST

• Data analyses

Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT)

• Safety enhancement development

Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT)

• Master safety plan
• Enhancement effectiveness
• Future areas of study

Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis
Team (JIMDAT)
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CAST Integrated Strategic Safety Plan

• Ongoing Industry and FAA Safer Skies Initiatives
  were Combined into CAST
• Data-Driven, Consensus-Based, Integrated
  Strategic Safety Plan Developed
• 46 Prioritized Safety Enhancements
• 8 RD Projects and 2 Studies.
• Projected 73 Risk Reduction by 2007
• Safety Enhancements in place and fully supported
  by Government and Industry

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CAST Safety Plan Specifics
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CAST Safety Plan

• 25 Completed Safety Enhancements
• Safety Culture
• Maintenance Procedures
• Flight Crew Training
• Air Traffic Controller Training
• Uncontained Engine Failures
• Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS)
• Standard Operating Procedures
• Precision Approaches
• Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems
• Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA ASAP)

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CAST Safety Plan (cont.)

• 21 Committed Safety Enhancements
• Policies and Procedures
• Aircraft Design
• Flight Crew Training (additional aspects)
• Runway Incursion Prevention
• Precision Approaches (additional projects)
• 8 RD Projects and 2 Studies

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Resource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction
10000
80
APPROVED PLAN
Risk Reduction
9000
70
Total Cost in (Millions)
8000
60
7000
50
6000
Risk Eliminated by Safety Enhancements
40
5000
Resource Cost ( Millions)
2007
2020
4000
30
3000
20
2000
10
1000
0
0
All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020
Implementation Level)
Completed
Completed Plan (2020 Implementation Level)
Completed Plan (2007 Implementation Level)
CAST-050
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Safety Plan Benefits

• Prediction of a 73 risk reduction that also
  results in approximately 620 million annual
  savings to the industry
• Current accident cost per flight is approximately
  76 cycle
• Implementation of the 46 selected safety
  enhancements reduces this cost by 56 per flight
  cycle
• Safety is morally required and is also good for
• business

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Cost Savings
Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull
Loss Accidents
100
Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle
80
Savings 56/Flight Cycle Or 620 Million
Dollars/Year
Dollars/Flt. Cyc
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73 Risk reduction
40
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Cost of accident fatalities following
implementation of the CAST plan _at_ 2007 levels
0
2002
2007
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Hull Loss Fatal Accidents
Portion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the
CAST Plan
(2007 Implementation Values)

100
Risk Eliminated
90
Risk Remaining
80
70
CAST 1987-2000 Fatal/Hull Loss Dataset
Security events excluded.
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Portion of Risk
50
40
30
20
10
0
Total
CFIT
Evac
Midair
LOC Flt
Crew Inc
LOC GND
Eng-UCEF
Sys-Comp
Turbulence
Fire/Explosion
Runway Collision
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Safety Metrics Examples
Safety Enhancement Indicator
Terrain Avoidance Warning System (TAWS) Reduction in MSAW alerts Reduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT)
4. CFIT PAI-Vertical Angles (7-11,18) Percentage of operators who have adopted constant angle approaches Continuous reduction in the number of approaches where descent rates exceed 1000 feet per minute in final approach phase, reduction in the percentage of dive and drive approaches and the number of unstabilized approaches
21. ALAR Flight Deck Equipment Upgrades New Type Designs (1-3) Reduction in number of inadvertent descents below decision height
23. ALAR Flight Crew Training one project Continuous reduction in the number of busted approach gates and altitude busts
27. LOC Policies and Procedures Risk Assessments and Management one project Percentage of operators/manufacturers with risk assessment/management processes in place Continuous reduction in the number of operations with recurring intermittent failures in flight critical systems Percentage of operators with a process to include safety information in manuals
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International Outreach
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Regional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by
Region of the World
Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by
airline domicile, 1994 through 2003
C.I.S.1
Europe 0.7
JAA - 0.6 Non JAA 1.2
China 0.5
United States and Canada 0.4
Middle East 3.1
Asia 1.7
(Excluding China)
Africa 13.3
Latin America and Caribbean 2.4
Oceania 0.0
World 1.0
Accidents per million departures
1Insufficient fleet experience to generate
reliable rate. 2003 Preliminary Information
11/1/03 REG-053a
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Regional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by
Region of the World
Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by
airline domicile, 1994 through 2003
COSCAP CIS Just starting
Europe 0.7
C.I.S.1
JSSI 35 SEs 11 SEs to EASA 11 complete 62
reduction
COSCAPs Asia 12 SEs on plan 60 reduction
JAA - 0.6 Non JAA 1.2
United States and Canada 0.4
China 0.5
CAST 46 SEs 25 complete 21 in work 73 reduction
Middle East 3.1
Asia 1.7
(Excluding China)
Africa 13.3
Latin America and Caribbean 2.4
ASET Just forming up
PAAST CFIT, ALAR RI SE-23
Oceania 0.0
World 1.0
Accidents per million departures
1Insufficient fleet experience to generate
reliable rate. 2003 Preliminary Information
27 May 2004 -KLO
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International Safety Activities

• ICAO
• COSCAP (Cooperative Development of Operational
  Safety and Continuing Airworthiness)
• SE Asia, S Asia N Asia
• Europe
• JSSI Joint Safety Strategy Initiative
• Central and South America
• PAAST Pan American Aviation Safety Team

• East Africa
• African Airlines Safety Council, AFRASCO
• West Africa
• ASECNA (Agence pour la Securite de la Navigation
  Aerienne en Afrique et a Madagascar)
• IATA
• Flight Safety Foundation
• Asia/Pacific
• Association of Asia Pacific Airlines

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Summary
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Back-Up Slides
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Safety Analysis Process
1.
NTSB Accident Incident Reports
2.
21.3 Reports
NASDAC data
Airclaims data
Historical Data
FOQA data
Pareto Plots JSAT
Industry
JSAT
3.
Threat
Accident
4.
Combined Threat
Causal Analysis
Intervention Strategy
Cause
Cause
Cause
Cause
5.
JSAT
JSAT
7.
Industry
Safer Skies
6.
Government
Implementation Strategy JSIT
AvSP
Measuring Progress to Goal
Coordinated Plan
5.3-23
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Safer Skies
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
Controlled Flight
GENERAL AVIATION
Into Terrain
CABIN SAFETY
Aeronautical

Decisionmaking
Loss of Control
Passenger Interference
Loss of Control
Uncontained

Engine Failures
Weather
Passenger Seat Belt Use
Runway Incursion
Controlled Flight
Carry-on Baggage
Into Terrain
Approach and Landing

Child Restraint
Survivability
Weather
Turbulence
Runway Incursions
HUMAN FACTORS
IMPROVED DATA
IN OPERATIONS

ANALYSIS
MAINTENANCE
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Future
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Safety Plan Development
CAST Plan Rev.
Safety Enhancements
Accident JSATs
Accident JSITs
CAST Plan
Master Contributing Factors
JIMDAT Process
Metrics
Emerging Risk
Metrics
Incident Analysis Process
Safety Enhancements
Changing Risk
Metrics
Aviation System Changes
Identify Hazards
Identify Factors
Yes
Present In Master Factors
Develop Contributing Factors (new or emerging)
Safety Enhancements
FAST Hazards
No
Demographic Changes
Identify Hazards
Identify Factors
6-11-03 CAST-051
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Our Challenge Stay Focused

• Work together internationally
• Coordinate strategy
• Target our resources
• Focus on prevention
• Communicate industry and government safety
  processes and initiatives
• Share results

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CAST ProcessData-drivenIndustry/Regulatory
Collaboration