Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Plan & Metrics

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Commercial AviationSafety Team (CAST)Plan
Metrics
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Agenda

• Executive Overview of CAST Progress
• Historical Background
• Progress to Date
• Annual Safety Plan
• Inclusion of R D
• Business model
• Action Plan
• Garner support for continued CAST activities

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CAST Origin
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In the U.S., our focus was set by theWhite House
Commission on Aviation Safety
1.1 Government and industry should establish a
national goal to reduce the aviation fatal
accident rate by a factor of five within ten
years and conduct safety research to support that
goal 1.2 The FAA should develop standards for
continuous safety improvement, and should target
its regulatory resources based on performance
against those standards
5.3-2
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The National Civil Aviation Review Commission
(NCARC) on Aviation Safety Provided Additional
Direction

• FAA and the aviation industry must develop a
  strategic plan to improve safety, with specific
  priorities based on objective, quantitative
  analysis of safety information and data
• Government should expand on their programs to
  improve aviation safety in other parts of the
  world

5.3-3
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In Response

• Ongoing Industry and FAA Safer Skies Initiatives
  were Combined into CAST
• Data-Driven, Consensus-Based, Integrated
  Strategic Safety Plan Developed
• In place and fully supported by Government and
  Industry with Worldwide Recognition - CAST

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Excluding all security events
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Safer Skies
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
Controlled Flight
GENERAL AVIATION
Into Terrain
CABIN SAFETY
Aeronautical

Decisionmaking
Loss of Control
Passenger Interference
Loss of Control
Uncontained

Engine Failures
Weather
Passenger Seat Belt Use
Runway Incursion
Controlled Flight
Carry-on Baggage
Into Terrain
Approach and Landing

Child Restraint
Survivability
Weather
Turbulence
Runway Incursions
HUMAN FACTORS
IMPROVED DATA
IN OPERATIONS

ANALYSIS
MAINTENANCE
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CAST Goals

• Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal
  accident rate by 80 by 2007
• Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA,
  FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations
  and appropriate regulatory/ government
  authorities to reduce worldwide commercial
  aviation fatal accident rate

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Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
Industry
Government
AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA NACA Boeing PW RAA FSF I
ATA AAPA ATAC APFA

• DOD
• FAA
• Aircraft Certification
• Flight Standards
• System Safety
• Air Traffic Operations
• Research
• NASA
• ICAO
• JAA
• TCC
• NATCA

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
Representing GE and RR
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Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
CAST

• Data analyses

Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT)

• Safety enhancement development

Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT)

• Master safety plan
• Enhancement effectiveness
• Future areas of study

Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis
Team (JIMDAT)
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CASTA Three-Stage Process

Data Analysis
Implement Safety Enhancements - U.S.

Set Safety Priorities
Agree on problems and interventions
Influence Safety Enhancements - Worldwide
Achieve consensus on priorities
Integrate into existing work and distribute
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Additional Safer Skies Activities

• Although the primary purpose of our briefing
  focuses on CAST, there are other Safer Skies
  focus areas
• General Aviation Joint Steering Committee (JSC)
• Cabin Safety

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Integrated Strategic Safety Plan

• Data-Driven, Consensus-Based, Integrated
  Strategic Safety Plan Developed
• 46 Prioritized Safety Enhancements
• 8 RD Projects and 2 Studies
• 46 safety enhancements optimized to include those
  actions with the best effectiveness vs. resource
  relationships - 22 complete/24 committed and
  underway
• Initially combines short-term liveware-based
  enhancements with transition to design change
  enhancements long term
• Projected 73 Risk Reduction by 2007 (75 by
  2020)
• Foundation for U.S-supported continuous
  improvements in worldwide aviation safety

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CAST Safety Plan
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Completed Safety Enhancements

• Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS)
• CFIT Standard Operating Procedures
• Precision approach implementation (PAI) Vertical
  Angles Increase constant angle approaches
• Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems
• Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA ASAP)
• CFIT Crew Resource Management (CRM) training
• CFIT Prevention training
• Air Traffic Controller CFIT training
• PAI-VGSI at runway ends
• PAI-DME at airports
• RI SOPs
• Ground Operations (General Aviation)
• Tow tug operators
• ATC

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Completed Safety Enhancements (contd)

• Safety Culture
• Industry will include essential safety
  information in the appropriate airline manuals
  (i.e., training programs)
• FAA inspectors will utilize the Aircraft Flight
  Manual (AFM) database
• CEO and Director of Safety (DOS) more visible
• Maintenance Procedures
• FAA published guidance on
• Servicing landing struts
• Surveillance of maintenance subcontractors
• Minimum Equipment List (MEL) (covers recurring
  maintenance events)
• Air Carriers Directors of Safety completed
  internal surveys to verify guidance was being
  followed
• ALAR Flight crew training
• Uncontained Engine Failures
• FAA issued Airworthiness Directives requiring the
  Inspection of High-Energy Rotating Parts

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Committed Plan Elements

• Policies and Procedures
• Industry will develop/implement Risk Management
  tools
• Industry will develop a process to inform
  personnel/flight crew of critical safety
  information
• Industry will develop a process to enhance flight
  crew proficiency
• FAA/Industry will develop standard operating
  procedures for loss of control related accidents
• Aircraft Design
• FAA will issue guidance on Continuing
  Airworthiness
• FAA will issue guidance on Critical System
  Maintenance
• FAA will amend guidance to include
  recommendations surrounding autoflight designs
  for new type designs
• Manufacturers will implement Flight Deck
  Equipment Upgrades for new type designs (i.e.
  interactive checklists)
• FAA/JAA will amend guidance to include
  recommendations regarding Displays and Alerting
  Systems for new designs
• Manufacturers agree to install Vertical Situation
  Displays in new aircraft
• FAA/JAA will issue amended icing certification
  criteria for criteria for new airplane designs
  not equipped with evaporative systems
• Manufacturers agree to install Flight Envelope
  Protection in new type designs

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Committed Plan Elements (cont.)

• Runway Incursions
• Enhanced airport surveillance equipment
• Standard operating procedures (SOPs)
• Ground operations (121/135)
• Vehicle operators
• Clearance readback requirements
• Training
• Pilots
• ATC
• Enhanced Tower Controller Training
• CRM

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Committed Plan Elements (cont.)

• Flight Crew Training
• Advanced Maneuvers Training will be provided by
  all operators
• Industry will incorporate a human factors-related
  training guide into training programs and SOPs
• Precision approach implementation (PAI)
• FAA and Industry will develop
• Recommended procedures, displays and training
  that will enable pilots of commercial aircraft to
  fly a stabilized vertical path to the runway for
  all instrument approaches
• Criteria and guidance for reduced landing minima
• Laterally and vertical guided approach paths to
  runway ends not served by Instrument Landing
  System (ILS)

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CAST RD Plan

• CFIT Synthetic Vision Systems
• Develop capabilities that permit flight crews to
  operate in a day VMC-like environment, regardless
  of visibility
• CFIT FOQA ASAP
• Develop low cost analytical tools (including
  decision making) and methods that both large and
  small operators can apply to FOQA and ASAP
  information
• CFIT Datalink
• Develop datalink capabilities and systems for
  automatic digital transmission

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CAST RD Plan (contd)

• CFIT Precision-Like Approach
• Conduct research necessary to determine human
  factors guidelines for design of instrument
  procedures
• ALAR - Health Usage Monitoring Systems (HUMS)
• Conduct research and develop technology for
  detection, prediction and/or annunciation of
  impending equipment failures
• ALAR Human Factors
• Conduct research into correcting and eliminating
  the underlying reasons/causes for procedural
  noncompliance.

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CAST RD Plan (contd)

• LOC Icing
• For aircraft that incorporate non-evaporative
  ice protection systems, develop systems that
  sense the presence of ice accretion on the
  aircraft, automatically activate and manage the
  ice protection systems, and provide the pilot
  with feedback including the effect on measured
  aircraft performance, stability, and control
• LOC - Envelope Protection -Existing Airplanes
• Complete study and determine feasibility of
  modifying existing aircraft to include
  angle-of-attack / low speed protection (e.g.,
  stick pushers/nudgers, column force
  ramps/gradients, automatic elevator/stabilizer
  inputs) thrust asymmetry compensation and bank
  angle protection using hard or soft limits

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CAST RD Plan (contd)

• RI - ATC Procedures -Review Capacity Enhancement
  Program - LAHSO)
• Complete review of capacity enhancement programs
  to determine if they are contributory to runway
  incursions
• RI - RI Visual Aids Enhancement and Automation
  Technology - Airports - Runway occupancy signal
• Develop, evaluate and install a visual signal
  to indicate runway occupancy to flight crews on
  final approach to that runway

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Resource Cost vs. Risk Reduction
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Safety Plan Benefits

• Prediction of a 73 risk reduction that also
  results in approximately 620 million annual
  savings to the industry
• Current accident cost per flight is approximately
  76 cycle
• Implementation of the 46 selected safety
  enhancements reduces this cost by 56 per flight
  cycle
• Safety is morally required and is also good for
• business

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Cost Savings
Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull
Loss Accidents
100
Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle
80
Savings 56/Flight Cycle Or 620 Million
Dollars/Year
Dollars/Flt. Cyc
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73 Risk reduction
40
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Cost of accident fatalities following
implementation of the CAST plan _at_ 2007 levels
0
2002
2007
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U.S. Hull Loss Fatal Accidents
Portion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the
CAST Plan
(2007 Implementation Values)

100
Risk Eliminated
90
Risk Remaining
80
70
CAST 1987-2000 Fatal/Hull Loss Database
Security events excluded
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Portion of Risk
50
40
30
20
10
0
Total
CFIT
Evac
Midair
LOC Flt
Crew Inc
LOC GND
Eng-UCEF
Sys-Comp
Turbulence
Fire/Explosion
Runway Collision
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All Regions Combined
Worldwide Hull Loss Fatal World Wide Accidents
Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan
is Adopted Worldwide
(2007 Implementation Values)
100
Risk Eliminated
90
Risk Remaining
80
70
60
Portion of Risk
50
40
30
20
10
0
RI
ICE
RE
ARC
Total
CFIT
LOC-I
FUEL
USOS
ADRM
Midair
FIRE-NI
SCF-PP
SCF-NP
WSTRW
OTHER-BIRD
Accident Classes Defined by CAST/ICAO Common
Taxonomy
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The CAST Process is Flexible

• It may be used to analyze
• Suggestions from outside industry
• Regulatory initiatives
• Accident lessons learned
• Incident data
• Other

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Safety Metrics

• Purpose Measure to determine if program is
  resulting in desired risk reduction. Identify
  issues needing more detailed analysis if desired
  result is not occurring
• Assumption Measurement of accident rate is not
  effective means of identifying program success
• Concentrate on using reporting systems currently
  in existence (ex FOQA, Partnership programs,
  SDR, NAOMS, etc.)
• Direct link is through the problem statements
  identified by data analysis
• Identify events that reflect the problem
• Identify available method for measuring the event
  frequency
• Establish event baseline
• Identify trend

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Safety Metrics Examples
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CAST Links to International Safety Activities

• Asia/Pacific
• ICAO COSCAP (Cooperative Development of
  Operational Safety and Continuing Airworthiness)
• NARAST, SARAST, SEARAST
• Association of Asia Pacific Airlines
• Europe
• JSSI JAA Safety Strategy Initiative
• Central / South America
• PAAST Pan American Aviation Safety Team

• East Africa
• African Airlines Safety Council, AFRASCO
• West Africa
• ASECNA (Agence pour la Securite de la Navigation
  Aerienne en Afrique et a Madagascar)
• Flight Safety Foundation
• CAAG (CFIT Approach and Landing Action Group)
• ICAO
• Global Aviation Safety Plan (GASP)

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Future Vision

• Execute the CAST-approved Safety Plan
• Measure Plan effectiveness and modify Plan based
  on metrics and results
• Continue the development of a proactive
  incident-based risk mitigation methodology
• Improve the CAST process
• Expand CAST influence on worldwide safety
  programs
• Integrate safety program with R D initiatives
• Catalog the many on-going safety initiatives that
  dilute limited resources and identify
  opportunities for program integration and
  efficiency improvements

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Safety Plan Development
CAST Plan Rev.
Safety Enhancements
Accident JSATs
Accident JSITs
CAST Plan
Master Contributing Factors
JIMDAT Process
Metrics
Emerging Risk
Metrics
Incident Analysis Process
Safety Enhancements
Changing Risk
Metrics
Aviation System Changes
Identify Hazards
Identify Factors
Yes
Present In Master Factors
Develop Contributing Factors (new or emerging)
Safety Enhancements
FAST Hazards
No
Demographic Changes
Identify Hazards
Identify Factors
6-11-03 CAST-051
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Conclusions

• CAST has an effective data-driven process
• CAST has become the model for US
  Industry/Government consensus building on safety
• CAST brings together all the key players
• Air Carriers
  Manufacturers
• Employee Groups Government
• Predicted 73 risk reduction by 2007
• Industry is voluntarily implementing CAST
  recommendations
• CAST is committed to worldwide participation
• CAST is moving to develop proactive processes to
  identify changing and emerging risks