Peak Oil Awareness Information and Training Session

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Peak Oil AwarenessInformation and Training
Session
Presented by the Portland Peak Oil group
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Who are we?
The Portland Peak Oil Group

• Were a grass roots group of concerned local
  citizens, from different backgrounds, with
  different interests, whove separately become
  aware of the looming crisis caused by the peaking
  of world oil supplies
• Weve come together to try to - -
• Develop individual and collective strategies to
  cope with this crisis
  
• Create awareness in the Portland community about
  Peak Oil
  
• Influence policies of local government to help
  mitigate the crisis
  
• Serve as a community resource as the crisis
  becomes more severe
  

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What is this about?
Were here to talk about Peak Oil

• What is it?
• When will its impact be felt?
• What does it mean for - -
• Ourselves and our families?
• Our community?
• What can we do to prepare?

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What do we hope to accomplish?

• This training is intended to raise your awareness
  of Peak Oil. We hope to show you that - -
  
• Fossil fuels will soon become less plentiful,
  less readily available and increasingly
  expensive
  
• The coming decline in fossil fuel production will
  wreak havoc with our way of life and force all of
  us to make dramatic changes in how we live
  
• How we respond, both individually and
  collectively, will determine the nature of our
  post-Peak quality of life, and possibly even
  whether we and our loved ones survive the crisis

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What is Peak Oil?

• The concept of Peak Oil was developed in the
  1950s by petroleum geologist M. King Hubbert
  
• Its a mathematical model that seeks to predict
  the point at which maximum possible oil
  production will be reached by an individual
  field, a region, a country, or even the entire
  world
• Hubbert discovered that oil production follows a
  bell-shaped curve (Hubberts Curve)
  
• The first oil produced is always the easy stuff
  (think gusher)
  
• As the low hanging fruit is gradually depleted,
  additional production becomes increasingly
  difficult and expensive
  
• When approximately half of the total oil
  available has been produced, the point of maximum
  production is reached
  
• Thereafter, production begins an inevitable
  decline - - the previous peak will never be
  exceeded

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Does Hubberts Model Work?

• Based on his model, in 1956 Hubbert predicted
  that oil production in the US lower 48 states
  would peak in the early 1970s
  
• This prediction received nearly universal
  ridicule from oil industry and government
  experts, most of whom believed peak US production
  was many decades away
• Hubbert was right US oil production peaked in
  1971, and has been steadily declining ever since

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Now, The World is Nearing Peak

• Leading researchers using Hubberts model are
  predicting a worldwide peak of fossil fuel
  production before 2010
  
• Some experts believe Peak Oil will be this year
  or next

Source Post Carbon Institute
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Were Not Running Out of Oil

• Peak Oil means weve used up about half of
  natures bounty of fossil fuels
  
• This sounds good however, the half weve used
  was the easy stuff to get - - the cheap oil
  
• From the peak onward, every barrel will be harder
  and more expensive to produce, and, as a result,
  well produce less of it
  
• Thats why non-conventional fossil fuels (like
  Canadian oil sands) are no answer - - theyre
  expensive and they require much more energy to
  produce than light crude
• Eventually, itll take more energy to produce the
  remaining oil than the oil itself will generate
  
• At that point, unless we have an energy
  alternative in place, the lights go out

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Lights Out?
The New Yorker
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Cant We Just Find Some More?

• Its highly unlikely
• Peak discovery typically precedes peak production
  by 25 to 30 years
  
• World oil discovery peaked in the mid-1970s and
  has been declining ever since

Source Post Carbon Institute
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The Consequences of Peak OilHow will oil
depletion impact our lives in the years ahead?

• There is NO viable substitute for cheap fossil
  energy
  
• Petroleum is much more energy dense than
  alternatives
  
• Weve invested trillions in a petroleum-based
  transport infrastructure
  
• Modern agriculture runs on fossil fuels
• Our mass consumption economy cant function
  without abundant, cheap fossil energy
  

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Energy Density vs. Alternatives

• Petroleum is extremely energy dense
• Energy output per unit is much higher than from
  any other source
  
• Petroleum products are very convenient
• Easy to transport and to store
• Relatively safe to use
• Very versatile
• Energy return on energy invested (EROEI) of
  petroleum is higher than alternatives
  
• Marked decline from 1001 in the 40s, but still
  over 81
  
• No combination of alternatives comes close to
  matching these advantages

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Modern Transport Requires Petroleum

• Gasoline and other transport fuels are energy
  dense
  
• One gallon of gas contains about 36 kW hrs of
  energy, enough to power a small house for a week
  
• Batteries have low energy density
• Battery-powered flight is impractical
• Battery-powered cars require electricity, mostly
  generated by fossil fuel or nuclear energy
  
• Massive use of biodiesel or ethanol is
  impractical
  
• Studies indicate that these fuels have an EROEI
  of
  
• Growing feedstock to run the current US
  automotive fleet on ethanol would require all
  available farmland, and more

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Agriculture Runs on Fossil Fuels

• The green revolution was based on petroleum
• Industrial agriculture uses about 50 times the
  energy inputs of traditional agriculture
  
• Modern agriculture is fossil energy intensive
• Nitrogen fertilizer is produced with natural gas
• Pesticides and herbicides are synthesized from
  oil
  
• Mechanized agriculture runs on petroleum
• Farm equipment is powered by petroleum energy
• Monocrop agriculture involves long-distance
  transport of seeds, inputs and crops
  
• North American food travels an average of 1,300
  miles from farm to plate

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Fossil-Fueled Mass Consumption

• Without cheap, plentiful petroleum, globalized
  production will grind to a halt
  
• The flood of cheap goods from China will become a
  trickle (Wal-Mart is toast)
  
• The current US standard of living depends on
  global distribution of cheaply-produced goods
  
• The end of this system will see a marked decline
  in the living standard of most Americans
  
• The world financial system requires constant
  growth
  
• Without growth, our debt-based fiat money system
  will implode
  
• Constant growth depends on access to a
  continually-increasing supply of cheap energy

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So, What Happens After We Peak?

• Continual warfare for control of remaining
  resources
  
• Iraq is probably just the beginning
• Severe, long-term (permanent?) economic decline
• A second Great Depression, but this one might
  never end
  
• Societal breakdown
• Collapse of the globalized economy leads to chaos
  - - mass unemployment, poverty, hunger
  
• Dieoff
• Famine mass starvation due to a huge decline in
  crop yields
  
• Plague mass death from disease due to collapse
  of the modern medical system

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Resource Wars
Of several types

• Consuming nations vs. producing nations
• US vs. Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, etc., etc.
• Between consuming nations
• US vs. China
• Civil wars within producing nations
• Columbia, Algeria, Afghanistan, West Africa
• Asymmetrical warfare consuming nations vs.
  non-state entities in producing nations
  
• Terrorism, at home and abroad

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Economic and Societal Collapse

• As the growth engine sputters out, our growth
  economy will begin to implode
  
• A lower energy economy means lower productivity,
  as more human labor power is needed to do the
  same work
  
• Reduced productivity leads to declining economic
  activity, less demand for goods and services
  depression
  
• Collapse of the economy and infrastructure will
  trigger societal breakdown
  
• Mass unemployment, with little hope of a return
  of prosperity, causes widespread anger and
  despair
  
• Hunger and poverty lead to rampant crime and
  violence
  

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Dieoff?

• World population has increased from about 750
  million in 1750 to around 6.5 billion today
  
• This exponential growth was made possible by the
  huge temporary expansion of the planets human
  carrying capacity, through massive consumption of
  non-renewable fossil fuels
• Absent abundant fossil fuels,
• most experts place Earths
• human carrying capacity at
• between 1 and 2 billion
• Carrying capacity cannot be
• exceeded forever
• Sooner or later, nature takes care of the excess,
  one way or another

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What About Alternatives to Oil?

• Futuristic alternatives
• Hydrogen
• Fusion
• Free energy

• Non-renewable alternatives
• Natural gas
• Coal
• Nuclear
• Methane hydrates
• Renewable alternatives
• Wind
• Hydro
• Geothermal
• Solar
• Biomass
• Thermal depolymerization

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Non-Renewable Alternatives

• Natural gas
• Unsuitable as a substitute for oil
• North American production is nearly at peak
• Importing from elsewhere requires liquefaction,
  which is expensive and dangerous
  
• Gas isnt suited to powering transport
• Gas cant supply the panoply of petrochemicals we
  get from oil
  
• Coal
• An inadequate substitute for oil
• Much heavier than oil harder, more energy
  intensive to transport
  
• Mining runs on oil as oil becomes expensive, so
  will coal
  
• Coal is much more polluting than oil its use as
  a substitute for oil would greatly exacerbate
  global warming
  

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Non-Renewable Alternatives (contd)

• Nuclear
• Unsuitable as a substitute for oil
• Very expensive (costs of initial plant
  construction, fuel, safeguarding from terrorism,
  decommissioning, etc.)
  
• Cannot produce plastics, pesticides or
  petrochemicals
  
• Problem of disposal of radioactive waste hasnt
  been solved
  
• Methane hydrates
• Ice-like crystals that trap natural gas, mainly
  on the ocean floor
  
• Unsuitable as a substitute for oil
• Difficult to accumulate in large quantities
• Actual level of reserves may be much smaller than
  once believed
  
• Very expensive and dangerous to recover
• Accidental release of large quantities of methane
  into the atmosphere could trigger catastrophic
  global climate change

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Renewable Alternatives

• Wind
• Unrealistic as a substitute for oil
• Not portable or storable, like oil
• Cant produce petrochemicals, pesticides,
  plastics
  
• Not suitable as energy source for transportation
• Could be used to produce hydrogen however, this
  would require a multi-trillion dollar investment
  starting now
  
• Solar/Hydro/Geothermal
• All are unsuitable as substitutes for oil
• Cant produce petrochemicals, pesticides,
  plastics
  
• Not suitable as energy source for transportation
• Subject to geographic and/or weather constraints
• Much less energy dense than petroleum
• To replicate the energy sold by an average gas
  station in a single day would require 84 square
  miles of solar panels
  
• A solar energy system covering 20 of the US
  landmass would only supply about half of our
  current energy consumption
  

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Renewable Alternatives (contd)

• Biomass
• Includes both direct burning of plant materials
  (wood, peat, etc.) as well as biofuels
  (biodiesel, ethanol, etc.)
  
• An inadequate substitute for oil
• Very low EROEI - - some types are actually energy
  sinks
  
• Burning of biomass creates air pollution
• Arable land in the US will be needed for growing
  food there is not nearly enough to feed us and
  support production of biofuels
  
• Running our automotive fleet on ethanol would
  require nearly the entire continental US landmass
  for growing the feedstock - - thered be no land
  left over to house us, let alone to feed us
• Thermal depolymerization (energy from waste)
• An energy sink - - literally garbage in, garbage
  out!
  
• The waste input, itself, was produced using
  fossil energy
  
• As oil production declines, well have less waste
  to process
  

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Futuristic Alternatives

• Hydrogen
• The so-called hydrogen economy is a myth it is
  unsuitable as a substitute for oil
  
• Hydrogen is an energy carrier, not an energy
  source producing it requires substantial energy
  inputs
  
• Whatever the source of the energy input (fossil
  fuel, wind, hydro, etc.), the process involves a
  net loss of energy
  
• Massive fossil fuel inputs are still required to
  build the hydrogen production facilities as well
  as the hydrogen-powered vehicles
  
• It is much less energy dense than oil
• One 40-ton tanker would supply only 40
  hydrogen-powered cars
  
• Fusion, cold fusion and free energy
• Unrealistic as a substitute for oil
• Most of these schemes appear to violate the First
  Law of Thermodynamics (energy cannot be created
  or destroyed)
  
• No functional prototypes currently exist
• Even if theoretically possible (as with fusion),
  tremendous practical difficulties put large-scale
  use far into the future (if ever)
  
• Fusion requires reactor temperatures of approx.
  360 million ºF no material or process has been
  developed which can contain such temperatures

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So, What Will the Future Hold?

• In his recent book Powerdown, Peak Oil researcher
  Richard Heinberg outlines four possible options
  for our post-peak future
  
• Last one standing
• Powerdown
• Waiting for the magic elixir
• Building lifeboats

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Last One StandingThe Path of Competition for
Remaining Resources

• This option envisions continuous activity by
  elites to commandeer remaining resources
  
• This appears to be the current strategy of US
  elites
  
• If this option is allowed to play out, the next
  decades will likely be characterized by
  
• Continuous warfare abroad
• Increasing repression at home
• Severe economic crises
• Environmental catastrophe

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PowerdownThe Path of Cooperation, Conservation,
and Sharing

• This option envisions a massive worldwide effort,
  with tremendous economic sacrifice, to
  
• Reduce per-capita resource usage in rich
  countries
  
• Develop alternative energy sources
• Distribute resources more equitably
• Humanely but systematically reduce the size of
• human population over time
• Under this option, the next decades would be
  focused on
  
• Economic re-localization (especially food,
  transport, housing)
  
• Conservation and de-centralized production of
  energy
  
• Sustainable practices and increased use of
  permaculture

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Waiting for the Magic ElixirThe Path of
Wishful Thinking, False Hopes, and Denial

• Understandably, most people hope for a relatively
  painless way out of this crisis
  
• Dont worry, theyll find more oil.
• Dont worry, theyll come up with some new
  technology.
  
• Dont worry, theyll think of something, like
  they always do!
  
• Dont worry, be happy!

Unfortunately, in this case, such wishful
thinking is not just counter-productive its
downright dangerous It distracts us from the hard
work well need to do if were to avert violent
competition and societal collapse
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Building LifeboatsThe Path of Community
Solidarity and Preservation

• This option begins with the assumption that
• Industrial civilization cannot be salvaged in
  anything like its present form
  
• We are even now living through the early stages
  of disintegration
  
• Given this, it makes sense for at least some of
  us to devote our energies to
  
• Preservation of the most worthwhile cultural
  achievements of the past few centuries
  
• Providing resources to help ourselves and others
  weather the storms in the decades ahead

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OK, Things Look Pretty GrimIs There Anything We
Can Do?

• Yes! Each one of us can (and should) take the
  following steps to prepare for Peak Oil
  
• Educate ourselves and our friends and loved ones
  about Peak Oil and what it means
  
• Assess our level of energy dependence and the
  practical coping skills we currently possess
  
• Then Act to
• develop a plan for ourselves and our families
• learn the skills well need to survive
• raise Peak Oil awareness in local organizations,
  in our neighborhoods, and in our community
  
• strengthen communal ties with our fellow citizens

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Resolve to Educate Yourself

• Learn more about the following inter-related
  issues
  
• Peak Oil and the end of cheap energy
• Our growth and debt-based financial and fiat
  currency system
  
• Geopolitics in particular, our countrys role in
  the world
  
• Global climate change and environmental
  degradation
  
• Ecological carrying capacity and why societies
  collapse
  
• Learn about low-energy, sustainable lifestyle
  strategies
  
• Contemporary sustainable living ideas and
  practices, such as permaculture, the ecovillage
  movement, and the primitive technology
  movement
• Historical examples of societies coping with
  economic hardship and resource scarcity
  
• The Great Depression
• The World War II Victory Garden movement
• The experience of Cuba in the special period of
  the 1990s, following the fall of the Soviet Union

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Assess Your Energy Dependence

• How large a home do you really need?
• The average house in 1950 1000 sq. ft. today
  2200 sq. ft.
  
• How energy efficient is your home?
• Consider your appliances, lighting, windows,
  insulation, water heater, cooling and more
  
• How car-dependent are you?
• Could you use public transport, use a bicycle, or
  walk to work, to shop and for other activities?
  
• How energy intensive is the food you eat?
• Try to eat lower on the food chain (less meat!)
• Support local sustainable agriculture
  participate in the Community Supported
  Agriculture (CSA) program

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Assess Your Practical Skills

• Do you have necessary skills for a low energy
  future?
  
• Can you garden?
• Could you grow some or all of the food you and
  your family need if you had to?
  
• Do you have household skills like sewing,
  knitting, cooking, canning?
  
• Do you have medical or veterinary skills?
  Midwifery training or experience? Do you have
  knowledge of herbal medicines? Have you had
  training in first aid?
• Do you have carpentry or artisanal skills? Could
  you design and construct shelter? Repair
  agricultural tools?
  
• These (and other) skills may be vital to the
  survival of you and your family in the years
  ahead
  

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Act To Prepare for Peak Oil

• Develop a plan for you and your family
• Reduce your energy consumption
• Learn the skills you will need
• Strive to develop a sustainable, self-reliant
  communal lifestyle in place of an isolated,
  consumerist, unsustainable one

• Work within your community
• Join up with others who are aware and involved on
  this issue
  
• Educate your friends, neighbors, and loved ones
• Resolve to act as a resource for others in the
  years ahead

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A Vision of Post-Fossil Fuel Living
Decentralized Communal
Permacultural Low energy
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For More Info on Peak Oil

• Books
• Overshoot by William Catton
• High Noon For Natural Gas by Julian Darley
• Hubberts Peak by Kenneth Deffeyes
• Collapse by Jared Diamond
• A Century or War by F. William Engdahl
• The Partys Over by Richard Heinberg
• Powerdown by Richard Heinberg
• The Long Emergency by James Howard Kunstler
• The Oil Age is Over by Matt Savinar

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For More Info on Peak Oil (contd)

• Websites
• www.culturechange.org
• www.dieoff.org
• www.energybulletin.net
• www.globalpublicmedia.com
• www.hubbertpeak.com
• www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
• www.museletter.com
• www.odac-info.org
• www.peakoil.net
• www.peakoil.com
• www.postcarbon.org

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Thank You!

• Presented by
• The Portland Peak Oil group
• www.portlandpeakoil.org