The End of Democratic Government in Thailand

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The End of Democratic Government in Thailand

• The Military Coup of 2006

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(No Transcript)
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• I. Developing Democracy in a Developing Nation
• A. Overthrow of the Absolute Monarchy in 1932
• 1. Replaced with unelected parliament
• 2. Evolved into a military dictatorship
• under Japan
• B. Return of the Monarchy in 1947
• C. Coup in 1948
• D. Democratic Coup in 1973
• E. Military Counter-coup in 1976
• F. Military overthrow of the first
  democratically- elected government in 1991
• G. Restoration of Democracy in 1992
• H. Constitution of 1997
• I. Military Coup on September 19, 2006
• II. Sources of the Coup of 2006
• A. Opposition to Prime Minister Thaksin
  Shinawatra
• 1. Overwhelming election victory in 2005
• 2. Question of Corruption?
• (Slide 2)

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• __________________________________________________
  ______________________
• Table 2 Representation of Thai Political Parties
  in Constituency and Proportional Electoral
  Systems, 2001 and 2005
• __________________________________________________
  ______________________
• 2001
• Constituency Districts Party List
• Party Votes Seats Votes-Seats
  Votes Seats Votes-Seats
• Thai Rak Thai 36.64 50.00 -13.36
  40.64 48.00 -7.36
• Prajadhipatthai 25.81 24.25 1.56
  26.58 31.00 -4.42
• Chart Thai 8.55 8.75 -0.25
  5.32 6.00 -0.68
• Kwam Wang Mai 9.57 7.00 2.57
  7.02 8.00 -0.92
• Chart Pattana 8.85 5.50
  3.35 6.14 7.00
  -0.87
• Seritam 4.07 3.50 0.57
  2.82 0.00 2.82
• Rasadorn 3.39 0.50 2.89
  1.25 0.00 1.25
• Tinthai 1.20 0.25 0.95
  2.11 0.00 2.11
• Kisangkorn 0.08 0.25
  -0.17 0.16 0.00 0.16
• Others 1.83
  0.00 1.83 7.90
  0.00 7.97
• Index of Disproportionality Constituency
  10.29 Party List 8.75
• --------------------
• 2005

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• The difference between urban and rural
  constituencies (according to the elite urban
  view) is that
• Voting in farming areas is not guided by
  political principles, policy issues, or what is
  perceived to be in the national interest, all of
  which is (regarded as) the only legitimate
  rationale for citizens casting their ballots in a
  democratic election. The ideal candidates for
  rural voters are those who visit them often,
  address their immediate grievances effectively,
  and bring numerous public works to their
  communities.1
• The ability of rural constituencies to acquire
  substantial power in parliaments under these
  conditions often led to doubts among the middle
  class, the mass media, and even academics as to
  the efficacy of democratic processes. For these
  groups, democracy turns out to be the rule of
  the corrupt and incompetent. This creates a
  dilemma, for although the middle class opposes
  authoritarian rule, in principle, they hold rural
  constituencies in contempt, regarding them as
  parochial in outlook, boorish in manner, and too
  uneducated to be competent lawmakers or cabinet
  members.2
• 1 Laothamatas, op.cit., 208.
• 2 Ibid, 208.

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• __________________________________________________
  ______________________
• Table 10 Cleavages between Rural and Urban
  Populations in 2005 Polls, ANOVA Analysis
• __________________________________________________
  ______________________
• Mean
• Indicators N Bangkok Non-BKK
  F-Value Sig. of F
• It is better to live in an
• orderly society than to
• allow people so much
• freedom that it disrupts
• development. 1985
  7.86 7.26 8.952 .003
• Even if a government is
• democratically elected, if
• it is corrupt, the military
• should come in to set
• things right. 1980
  5.92 6.18 1.211 .271
• __________________________________________________
  _____________________

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• Table 6 Impacts of Status Indicators on Support
  for Democracy Regression Analysis
• 2001
• Regression Coefficient t-value Sig. of t
• Education -.002
  -.190 .849
• Income -.026
  -2.422 .016
• Occupational Status
  -.008 -.676 .499
• SES -.018 -1.003
  .316
• 2005
• Education . .012
  1.336 .182
• Income .000
  .133 .894
• Occupational Status
  .002 .287
  .774
• SES .010
  .775 .439
• Factor scores of education, income, and
  occupational status on a single natural factor
  with all loadings lt.70.
• __________________________________________________
  ______________________

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• C. Socioeconomic Status and Support for
  Democracy
• (Slide 5)
• D. A Royalist Coup Events preceding the Coup
• 1. Businessman Sonthi Limthongkul
• 2. Academics and Civil-society movements
• 3. Gen. Prem Tinsulanonda lectures military
• 4. General Songthi visits the palace
• 5. Coup Occurs
• 6. King Endorses the Coup
• III. The Way Ahead
• A. Growing Opposition to the Coup
• B. Populist versus Elite-guided Democracy
• C. A New Constitution and Elections in 2007