Environmental Risk: Perception, Voice, and Transfers

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Environmental RiskPerception, Voice, and
Transfers
Burning tap water

• Todd Rasmussen
• The University of Georgia
• www.hydrology.uga.edu

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Annual Death Risks (Crouch and Wilson, 1982)
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Other 1 in a Million Risks

• Cosmic Rays
• 1 transcontinental round-trip airplane ride
• Living 1.5 months in Colorado vs. sea level
• Camping at 15,000 feet for 6 days
• Other Radiation
• 20 days of sea-level background radiation
• Living 2.5 months in a brick building
• 1/4 of a chest x-ray

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More Cancer Risks

• Eating and Drinking
• 40 diet sodas (saccharin)
• 6 pounds of organic peanut butter (aflatoxins)
• 180 pints of milk (aflatoxins)
• 200 gallons of drinking water (Miami/New Orleans)
• 90 pounds of broiled steak (cancer only)
• Smoking
• 2 cigarettes
• Mortality vs. Morbidity
• Death
• Long-term disability

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Addictive Drugs The Cigarette ExperienceThomas
C. Schelling, (Science, 1992)
Cigarettes are among the most addictive
substances of abuse and by far the most deadly.
In this country smokers know it and try to stop.
Their success has been dramatic but partial and
excruciatingly slow, and until recently quite
uncoerced by government. Cigarettes and nicotine
have characteristics distinct among addictive
drugs, and some of these help explain why efforts
to quit smoking are so often frustrated. Nicotine
itself is the most interesting chemical in the
treatment of addiction and, in some forms, can
pose a dilemma compromise by settling for pure
nicotine indefinitely, or stay with cigarettes
and keep trying to quit. Nicotine is not alone
among addictive drugs in becoming increasingly
identified with the poorer classes.
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Benzene Risk

• When refueling your car, close all car windows
• Place plastic mitten on hand
• Take and hold a deep breath
• Open gas cap, remove nozzle, insert in car, set
  flow catch
• Take five steps upwind before breathing
• Dispose of plastic mitten in special trash
• Wash skin immediately and thoroughly (at least
  one minute) if contacted by gas

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Health Risks

• Emphasis on cancer-causing deaths
• Existing or known risks
• Alcohol, tobacco, gasoline
• Burden of proof is on government to demonstrate
  injury
• New or foreign risks
• New drugs, industrial chemicals
• Burden of proof is on manufacturer to demonstrate
  safety of product
• Natural vs. manufactured goods
• Chemical risks are regulated (alar)
• Natural toxins are not (aflatoxins)

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Food Hazards

• Significant
• Organic peanut butter (aflatoxins)
• Organic celery (psoralens)
• Brown mustard (allyl isothiocyanate)
• Trans fat
• Basil (estragole)
• Diet soda (saccharin)
• Minor
• Pesticides
• Herbicides
• Drinking water
• Decaffeinated coffee

Electron micrograph picture of Aspergillus
fumigatus
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Risk Envelope Plot the number of deaths for a
range of probabilities.
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Balancing Risks

• Do 1000 deaths in one crash, equal one death each
  in 1000 crashes
• Does 1 airline crash 1000 car crashes?
• For the death penalty, does the death by
  execution of one innocent person equal the death
  of one innocent person by a criminal?

Take calculated risks. That is quite different
from being rash. General George Patten
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Automobiles vs. Airplanes

• Incidence of deaths (per year and per mile) are
  much higher for automotive travel than for
  commercial aviation
• Average risk is higher for cars than for aircraft
• Maximum risk is higher for aircraft than for cars

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Nuclear vs. Coal

• Nuclear may cause catastrophic deaths
• Radiation from western coal can be very high
• Global warming from coal, not from nuclear
• Mercury poisoning from coal, not from nuclear
• Both may cause catastrophic adverse impacts

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Risk Comparison

• Decision-making relies not just on the absolute
  risk, but on the difference in risk between
  alternatives
• Should I ride my bike because the risk of driving
  is high?
• Should infants be strapped into safety seats on
  airplanes?
• Should I eat a harmful sugar substitute
  (saccharine) instead of real sugar?

To be alive at all involves some risk. Harold
Macmillan
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Fatalities per Million Exposure Hours(Failure
Analysis Associates, Inc.)
Only those who risk going too far can possibly
find out how far one can go. TS Eliot.
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Decision Metrics

• Used to choose the best alternative
• Smallest average risk
• Smallest maximum risk (Mini-Max)
• Largest minimum risk (Maxi-Min)
• Savage Regret (minimize the regret function)

Take time to deliberate, but when the time for
action has arrived, stop thinking and go in.
Napoleon Bonaparte
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Benefit - Risk Calculation

• Expected present value of all benefits (B) and
  losses (L) weighted by their probability of
  occurrence, p
• R Sum B p(B) L p(L)
• Present Value is the current value of future
  benefits or losses obtained by using a discount
  factor (which is normally positive)

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State Lottery

• Cost of lottery ticket 1.00
• Cost of management 0.40
• Amount of prize money 0.35
• Amount to state 0.25
• Value B - L 0.35 - 1.00 - 0.65

Our scientific power has outrun our spiritual
power. We have guided missiles and misguided
men. Martin Luther King, Jr.
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Risk Perception

• Outcomes weighted by perceived value of possible
  losses and benefits
• R Sum B p(B) w(B) - L p(L) w(L)
• Risk taker w(B) gt w(L)
• Risk neutral w(B) w(L)
• Risk adverse w(B) lt w(L)

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Ambiguity and Risk Perception

• Incorporating Uncertainty in Risk Communication
  and Policy Analysis and Benefit Evaluation for
  Environmental Regulation by W.K. Viscusi, W.A.
  Magat, and J. Huber
• This EPA study summarizes the responses of 646
  individuals to environmental risk information
  involving different forms of risk ambiguity.
  Section 2 introduces the study and provides the
  basic elements of the test of whether ambiguity
  maters. Section 3 indicates how the order of
  presentation of the ambiguous information
  influences attitudes toward the risk. Section 4
  introduces a complication involving the order in
  which risk studies have been carried out. Section
  5 extends the analysis of ambiguous risk beliefs
  to consider the role of skewness in the risk
  information that is provided. Section 6
  summarizes the authors' principal conclusions
  pertaining to risk ambiguity.

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Risk Consumption

• As new technologies reduce adverse effects
• Either total losses (risks) are reduced,
• Or behavior changes to maintain a constant risk
• Examples
• Air bags decrease risk of death in an accident.
• As more air bags are installed, death rate is
  lower.
• Serious injuries have increased, however.
• Automatic Braking Systems (ABS) decrease accident
  risk.
• As more ABS systems are installed, the death rate
  has not changed.
• Drivers have adjusted to maintain the same risk.

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Environmental Voice

• This results from political and economic
  influence on community decisions
• Various interest groups have differential access
  to media, party, government, courts, congress,
  president, and industry.
• The risk function must be weighted by the ability
  to voice ones interests, v
• R Sum B p(B) w(B) v(B) - L p(L) w(L) v(L)

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Environmental Racism

• Many pollution sources lie in areas with poor and
  disenfranchised populations
• Less capability to affect community governance
  (less voice)
• Risks of poverty (malnourishment, crime, drugs,
  lack of jobs) means loss function is weighted
  less heavily

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Pollution in US Cities Hits Minorities Hardest
By David Holmstrom Staff writer for The
Christian Science MonitorThursday, January 7,
1993
PARTLY a symbol, partly a protection, the
battered chain-link fence around the dirt and
weeds of Kingsley Street park in Buffalo, N.Y.,
is a reminder of an unpopular environmental
legacy. United States cities are just beginning
to face the fact that most inner cities are
disproportionately riddled with all kinds of
pollution.
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Risk Transfers

• Risk Producers vs. Risk Consumers
• Industrial giants reap benefits while consumers
  must accept risk of loss
• R Sum B p(B) w(B) v(B) producers
• - Sum L p(L) w(L) v(L) consumers
• The consumer risk is referred to as the
• Environmental Death Quota
• The consumer risk has to be p(L) lt 11,000,000
• This risk threshold is used for many decisions
• The number is not acceptable for processed foods,
  however.
• The Delaney Clause requires such food to
  demonstrate no increased health risk

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Local vs. Regional Transfers

• For many years, industries increased the height
  of the smokestacks to reduce the effects of air
  quality problems.
• But increased smokestack heights do not reduce
  the risk.
• A taller smokestack spreads the risk from
  populations near the source to more distant
  populations.

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Waste Disposal

• Geologic disposal is only a short-term solution
• Some wastes decompose naturally
• Many others remain toxic for thousands of years
• This is a risk transfer from the present to
  future generations

Plans are nothing planning is everything.
Dwight D. Eisenhower
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Global Trade Issues

• Lax environmental laws and poor democratic
  traditions means voice of community often not
  considered
• Generally, the only concern is whether boundary
  wastes will come back into U.S.
• Even within this country, some border populations
  still have less voice than others.

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Border Environment

• EPA requires air and water pollution abatement in
  cities, except along international boundaries.
• This creates two kinds of U.S. citizens,
  regular citizens and border citizens
• No international protocols requiring clean-up to
  the higher standard
• Problems include
• Seattle Vancouver (Puget Sound)
• El Paso - Ciudad Jaurez
• San Diego Tijuana
• Brownsville - Matamoros
• Nogales, Arizona and Sonora

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Trust

• Can we be assured that the state benefits and
  risks are accurate?
• Who benefits and who suffers if the risks are
  understated?
• Does the producer of risk have an incentive to
  understate the risk and overstate the benefits?
• Do governments / environmental groups /
  scientists have an incentive to overstate the
  risks?
• Avian flu
• Climate change
• Polio

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Prisoners Dilemma

• Two prisoners are plotting to escape
• Reward for mutual cooperation
• Gain 3 points each if both cooperate and escape
• Punishment for mutual defection
• Lose -1 point each if both defect and tell the
  guards
• Temptation to defect
• Gain 5 points for defector if the other
  cooperates
• Suckers payoff
• 0 points for cooperator if other defects

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Decision Matrix
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Perceived Risk, Trust, and the Politics of
Nuclear WastePaul Slovic, James H. Flynn, Mark
Layman, (Science, 1991)
The Department of Energy's program for disposing
of high-level radioactive wastes has been impeded
by overwhelming political opposition fueled by
public perceptions of risk. Analysis of these
perceptions shows them to be deeply rooted in
images of fear and dread that have been present
since the discovery of radioactivity. The
development and use of nuclear weapons linked
these images to reality and the mishandling of
radioactive wastes from the nation's military
weapons facilities has contributed toward
creating a profound state of distrust that cannot
be erased quickly or easily. Postponing the
permanent repository and employing dry-cask
storage of wastes on site would provide the time
necessary for difficult social and political
issues to be resolved.
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High-Level Nuclear Waste

• 70,000 metric tons are destined for Yucca
  Mountain, NV, from 40 years of commercial nuclear
  power production.
• At least this much waste will be generated in the
  U.S. every 50 years.
• Plutonium half-life 24,100 years
• Over 98 of the radioactive contaminants could be
  recycled instead of buried.
• The recycled wastes could replace fuel, thus
  eliminating production wastes/
• Issues of nonpoliferation for reprocessing.

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Nuclear Waste Options

• 1. Continue nuclear power production as is,
  geologically dispose of 70,000 metric tonnes
  every 50 years
• 2. Stop nuclear power production now,
  geologically dispose of 70,000 tonnes of waste
• 3. Recycle spent fuel, continue production until
  all spent fuel is recycled and destroyed.
• 4. Recycle spent fuel, continue production
  indefinitely.

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Where is Risk Going?

• Non-human (ecosystem) risks
• Global climate change
• Acid deposition
• Exotic species
• Human risks
• Epidemiological assessments (cofactors, genetic
  predisposition)
• Indoor air pollution (radon, synthetics,
  biohazards)
• International protocols (air releases, worker
  exposure, ocean dumping)