Lecture 24 Chinas Future: Will China become a democracy

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Lecture 24 Chinas Future Will China become a
democracy?

• SOSC 152

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• Theories from political development
• Practical evolution in China
• Sprouts of democracy in China
• Institutional transformation
• Economic Modernization
• Civil Society due to market expansion
• Independence for local media and freedom of
  speech?
• Growth of a Middle Class
• Introduction of Elections
• Legal Reform
• International forces
• forces that could retard democracy
• Scenario of democratic transition
• Could China Collapse?

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1. Theories from political development

• level of economic development, social
  mobilization, increased level of literacy and
  communication flows lead to democratization.
• emergence of middle class and private property
• external pressure from wave of democracy
• hegemonic superpower bringing pressure on
  governments

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2. Practical evolution in China

• local state corporatism was the political result
  of domestic decentralization and foreign trade
  development rather than a transition to greater
  democracy.
• partys experience of 1989 teaches it to be very
  careful about political liberalization.
• Wealth of power commingle at municipal/country
  level (Figure 3)

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Fig. 3 Relationship between Economic Growth
Political Liberalization
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3. Sprouts of democracy in China

• Institutional transformation
• NPC as major challenger to CCP, institutional
  pluralism
• NPC committees allow professionals to have major
  input into lawmaking process
• Provincial peoples congresses as new force for
  challenging corrupt cadres.
• Introduction of village and urban district level
  elections

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3. Sprouts of democracy in China (contd)

• b. Economic Modernization
• professional classes involvement in policy
  making generates demands for democracy
• large scale development projects and forces of
  modernization, such as urbanization,
  environmental pollution, marketization or
  commercialization means that market failures
  affect large groups of people
• but the institutional framework for managing
  these problems remains very weak, leading to
  political protests.

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3. Sprouts of democracy in China (contd)

• c. Civil Society due to market expansion
• Civil Society "the infrastructure of mediating
  institutions that link the multiple interests of
  citizens with the political regime." (Remington)
  
• has to be some distance between state and
  society, but need state to keep social order so
  that society is not in chaos.
• growth of the private sphere and narrowing of the
  public sphere controlled by the state.
• West sees private economy creating civil society,
  a very property rights approach, but alternative
  focuses on social pluralism, free speech,
  creation of "truly public opinion" when
  intellectuals under threat participate and expand
  the public sphere.

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3. Sprouts of democracy in China (contd)

• c. Civil Society due to market expansion
• intellectuals as articulators of public morality,
  challenging the state,
• but they must be "critical" intellectuals who
  stay outside the state power institutions, who
  understand their position in society, and desire
  to transform power relations by explaining the
  relationship between individuals, society and the
  state.
• No such tradition in China-- as intellectuals
  really want power.
• Most studies show no real emergence of civil
  society in China, local organizations still
  dominated by the local state or local
  bureaucracy.
• but over time, they may come to reflect social
  interests and act as mediators.

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3. Sprouts of democracy in China (contd)

• d. Independence for local media and freedom of
  speech?
• runs counter to idea of secrecy that empowers
  party cadres and right to make law themselves.
• highly threatening in period of widespread
  corruptionseen in shift of support for
  liberalization by "gao gan zi di" in 1987 and
  support for crackdown in 1989.
• Especially during great opportunities for profit
  taking--free speech and free press would attack
  that corruption.

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3. Sprouts of democracy in China (contd)

• e. Growth of a Middle Class
• Dramatic expansion in size and power of private
  enterprises, creating a large and powerful middle
  class.
• Private businessmen involved in NPC
• But private business entrepreneurs may not
  support democracy

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3. Sprouts of democracy in China (contd)

• f. Introduction of Elections
• Village elections and elections in urban
  districts,
• Villagers actually possess as high a level of
  democratic consciousness as Taiwanese inn 1986 on
  eve of democratization.
• Taiwans experience shows that participation in
  the democratic process creates a democratic
  consciousness.
• Villagers developing greater democratic
  consciousness, more willing to pursue their
  political rights
• CCP proven uncomfortable with two centres of
  power in the countryside.

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Distribution of democratic Values in Rural China,
1999
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3. Sprouts of democracy in China (contd)

• g. Legal Reform
• CP systems often seen as rule of man, now
  trying to shift to rule of law.
• CCP leaders want stability and protection from
  purges through legal protection.
• need for economically neutral dispute resolution,
  creates environment for emergence of power above
  or outside of CCP.
• law as both vehicle and object of reform a
  vehicle in that laws had to be made to introduce
  the political changes that the system had to
  undergo.
• major growth in the legal profession as a
  legitimate calling.
• in China, empowered the peasants somewhat to
  resist cadres, but risks very high, slow
  development of "rights consciousness."
• CCP unwilling to empower an institution outside
  the party, so willing to interfere in legal
  affairs.

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3. Sprouts of democracy in China (contd)

• h. International forces
• WTO and opening to global capitalism
• Loss of war in Taiwan straits costs CCP its
  legitimacy
• Wave of democracy

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4. forces that could retard democracy

• fusion of political and economic elite in
  creation of a New Class
• corruption leads elites to oppose free press and
  political liberalization
• political cultureis it a factor?
• private sector has always been willing to work
  with CCP, Wanks symbiotic clientelism
• unrest due to SOE reform
• no support for labour unions
• CCP unwilling to date to introduce township
  elections
• massive floating population
• foreign trade needing suppression of labour.
• present my village data on wealth and democracy
• TAM generation has not come to power.

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Tolerance for Speaking at Meeting by education
Country
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Democratic Idea by Perceived Level of Wealth ()
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5. Scenario of democratic transition

• cracks within the ruling elite
• military must agree with this process, emergence
  of a pact to protect military
• allow for competing factions to evolve into
  competing parties
• CCP accepts lesser political role because it has
  consolidated its economic dominance through
  privatization

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6. Could China Collapse?

• some foreigners saw risk from WTO, unemployed
  workers, peasant protests
• But I see the need for unified ideology to
  mobilize people.
• government has proved capable of suppressing
  rural protests and keeping them isolated.
• laid off 35 million workers in 1993-1998 without
  major unrest
• Inflation, corruption and inequality can create
  a tunnel effect and trigger massive unrest