PowerPoint

1
PowerPoint 11 International Treaties and
Policy Frameworks associated,with Atmospheric
Pollution
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Greenhouse Gases, Global Climate Change,
Security, and International Agreements

• Situation, Strategies, Solutions
• Policy Option Costs and Benefits
• Prognosis

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Perspective

• London, 1897

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Long-Term Effects

• More, stronger storms and extremes
• Less productive agriculture/more spoilage
• Environmental refugees
• Endangered coasts where 90 live
• Spread of tropical diseases
• General quality of life and health

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Strategies

• STRATEGY COST RISK
• No Problem 0 ?
• Wait and See Little More ?
• Insurance Some ?
• Precautions More ?
• No Regrets ? ?

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EPRI
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Solutions

• Switch fuels, more renewables
• Conservation/efficiencies
• Subsidies out, carbon tax in
• Polluter pays to internalize cost
• Halt deforestation, plant trees
• Sustainable (no till) agriculture

8
Kyoto Accord

• Big six gases (CO2, CH4, NOx, 3 halocarbons CFC
  replacements)
• More developed nations 5.0-7.5 below 1990 levels
  between 2008 and 2012
• Less developed nations to 1990 levels
• U.S. must reduce by 478MT

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Status in U.S.

• Signed (has power of Executive Order)
• Never ratified
• Would not pass past or present Senate
• Little action by current Administration,
  Congress, or others

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Clinton Policy

• Cap and Trade
• Stay at current levels
• Buy the rest
• Plant trees worldwide
• Pay to prevent deforestation
• Squandered good times

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Bonn

• Concessions to save treaty
• Sinks credited
• Trades authorized
• Emission credits
• EU promised 140M/yr
• 1.3T/T missed
• 55 nations and 55 signed

12
Bush Policy

• Kyoto not good for US economy or US security
• Avoid

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Morocco

• US sidelined
• Forests confirmed
• Russia wants 30MT versus 15 MT for their forests
• Escape clause from penalties

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How do we get there?

• Slow Economic Engine
• Conserve
• Trade, Jointly Implement
• Restoration
• Road Pricing

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Actual Economic Cost

• Robert Repetto meta-study (162) 2.5 in 2020
  (equivalent of forgoing 1 year)
• 0-300/Mt Burning 1 barrel of oil emits
  0.1133Mt of CO2 and costs between 0 and 33.75
  (95 confidence interval from 0.92 to 6.61,
  mean of 2.68/barrel).

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Green Options

• Planting trees, reducing fires, replace slow
  growers, restoring natural areas, and recycling
  can account for between 1222M and 2558M tons of
  U.S. annual 6B tons of emissions of carbon.

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Other Options

• Seeding oceans with Fe, a limiting nutrient,
  would accelerates conversion of CO2 to CaCO3
  which precipitates when the organism dies.

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Reaction Costs

• Store water and food
• Create wildlife/biodiversity refuges
• Bolster or move from coast
• Exorbitantly expensive

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Public Opinion

• Air Pollution 21
• Water Pollution 17
• General Pollution 10
• Global warming 7
• Other 26

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Opponents

• Massive and expensive campaign by energy
  companies to discredit science, prevent
  ratification, and continue emissions

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The Economist Dec 2,2000

• Kyoto acknowledged substantive, potentially
  expensive action.
• The roaring economic boom of the 90s was
  unhampered.
• Global warming is troubling because it is likely
  to do the most harm in parts of the world that
  are poorest and least prepared - and, it so
  happens, the least responsible for causing it.
  Bangladesh!

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Military

• Operations on high seas and international air
  space exempted
• Multilateral operations exempted.