Assassin or Catalyst

1
Assassin or Catalyst

• A Review of the Population Growth-Deforestation
  Relationship

2
Outline

• Dueling Theories
• Case Studies
• Implications

3
Outline

• Dueling Theories
• Neo-Malthusian Theory
• Neo-Boserupian Theory
• Case Studies
• Implications

4
Neo-Malthusian Theory

• Resource depletion due to divergence in growth
  rates
• Geometric growth (1,2,4,8) of population
  outstrips arithmetic growth (1,2,3,4) of
  resources

5
Neo-Boserupian Theory

• Ester Böserup
• 20th century Danish economist
• Viewed population growth as a cause for
  technological change for two reasons
• Problems necessitate solutions
• More minds to solve problems
• This technological change will lead to ecologic
  preservation

Eras of endogenous technological advance
6
Outline

• Dueling Theories
• Case Studies
• West African Example
• Indian Example
• Cropland A Theoretical Model
• Implications

7
West African Example

• Neo-Malthusian Evidence
• FAO estimates 30 million hectares of forest have
  disappeared in the twentieth century alone

Source Leach and Fairhead
8
West African Example

• Neo-Boserupian Example
• For centuries, civilizations in West Africa have
  engaged in actions that foster the growth of
  forests
• Farming practices that modify soil
• Create island forests
• Seedling transplants

Forest islands amid savanna in West Africa
Source Leach and Fairhead
9
Indian Example

• Vicious Cycle, Self-Correction, or Both?
• Underlying Assumptions
• Rural Populations suppliers of natural resources
• Urban Populations consumers of natural resources
• Neo-Malthusian Vicious Cycle
• Increase in rural population depletes natural
  resources
• Depleted natural resources will raise prices of
  said natural resources, dampening rural
  emigration
• Neo-Boserupian Self-Correction
• Scarcity of forest resources tends to spur
  increases in forest resource stocks
  (Bhattacharyan and Innes, 898)
• Due to both market forces and/or
  community/government action

10
Cropland A Theoretical Model

• Cropland are viewed as the greatest threat to
  forests across the globe
• Population not single cause of increase in
  cropland, nor is it the only potential target for
  change

11
Outline

• Dueling Theories
• Case Studies
• Implications
• Neo-Malthusian vs. Neo-Boserupian
• Why do we care about forests?
• Policy Implications

12
Malthus vs Boserup

• Neo-Malthusian Evidence
• Massive deforestation tracks the rapid global
  population increases
• Population increases directly affect the demand
  for natural resources

• Neo-Boserupian Evidence
• Historical signs of human sponsored aforestation
• Scarcity-Preservation relationship
• Reforestation already occurring in developed world

13
Why do we care about forests?

• Green house gas scrubbing (specifically CO2)
• Natural resources
• Soil preservation
• Homogenization
• Prime Forests
• Support unique, diverse ecosystems that take many
  decades to revive
• Beauty

14
Policy Implications

• Multi- or Supra-National endeavors
• National Plans
• Family planning may not be the easiest policy
  course correction
• Privatization of land
• Increases in yield
• Carbon Offset programs

15
Works Cited

• Bhattacharya, Haimanati and Robert Innes, (2008),
  "An empirical Exploration of the
  Population-Environment Nexus in India", American
  Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol 90, no. 4,
  November, pp883-901. (Consider only pp883-887 and
  the Conclusion, pp. 899-900)
• Leach, Melissa and James Fairhead, (2000),
  "Challenging Neo-Malthusian deforestation
  Analyses in West Africa's Dynamic Forest
  Landscapes" in Population and Development Review,
  Vol. 26, No. 1, March, pp. 17-43.
• Waggoner, Paule E. and Jesse H. Ausubel, (2001),
  "How Much Will Feeding More and Wealthier People
  Encroach on Forests?, in Population and
  Development Review, Vol. 27, No. 2, June, pp.
  239-257.