Continuing conflict: alAqsa Intifada and beyond, 20002006

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Continuing conflictal-Aqsa Intifada and beyond,
2000-2006
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Underlying Grievances

• Failure of Oslo Accords (1993-1995) Stalled
  peace process
• Israeli Settlements
• Area occupied by settlements doubled between 1992
  and 1999
• Around 480,000 settlers in the WB and Jerusalem
  (about 9-10 of WB population today)
• 56 new settlements established in 2002-2003.
• 140-180 settlements total in the WB and Gaza
• Bypass roads
• Poor and autocratic PA administration
• Economic suffering

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The catalyst what started the 2nd intifada?

• Late 2000 Breakdown of latest round of peace
  negotiations
• 10/28/2000 Ariel Sharon visits Temple Mount/al
  Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem
• Widespread protests violence

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Pal. Repertoires

• Urban warfare
• Armed attacks on army posts, Israeli settlements
• Military equipment light arms, hand grenades,
  remote-controlled landmines, Qassam rockets.
• Suicide bombings
• About 115 suicide bombings since Dec. 2000
• Clashes at checkpoints between young Palestinian
  men and soldiers

Above, Rescue workers aid a woman injured in a
2002 Tel Aviv bombing that killed 22 people and
injured more than 100. Both Islamic Jihad and the
Al-Aqsa Brigades claimed responsibility.
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Number of suicide attacks in Israel and across
the Green Line by quarter. Graphic from Haaretz.
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Sean Yom and Basel Saleh, Palestinian Suicide
Bombers A Statistical Analysisavailable at
http//www.ecaar.org/Newsletter/Nov04/saleh.htm
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Who was involved

• Majority young men and boys
• Hamas
• Carried out about 50 suicide bombings
• Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades
• Militant wing of Fatah
• About 25 suicide bombings
• Islamic Jihad

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Israeli Responses

• Reoccupation of PA cities
• Aerial and land attacks on Palestinian
  communities
• Hundreds of Pals killed
• Destruction of houses
• 2001-2005 666 houses destroyed as punitive
  measure (not in course of combat)
• Cessation announced Feb. 05.
• Assassinations
• 329 Palestinians killed by Israelis through
  assassination attempts (213 actually targeted)
• Hamas leaders Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz
  al-Rantisi assassinated
• Curfews checkpoints
• 27 permanently staffed checkpoints in West Bank
  plus 26 on Green Line
• Separation barrier (wall)
• Begun June 2002

Israeli tanks move into Ramallah, 2002. Photos
BBC
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Al-Aqsa Intifada fatalities(9/29/2000-02/2006)

• 684 Israeli civilians, including 118 minors,
  killed by Palestinians.
• 309 members of the Israeli security forces killed
  by Palestinians
• 3,331 Palestinians, including 643 minors, killed
  by Israeli security forces.
• 41 Palestinians, including 3 minors, killed by
  Israeli civilians.
• 169 Palestinians killed by other Palestinians for
  suspected collaboration with Israel
• (Source BTselem)

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Al Aqsa Intifada why so violent?

• More weapons in the territories
• New Pal. security forces/militias
• Sense (on both sides) that each side only spoke
  the language of force
• Post-Oslo geographic configurations
• New divisions within Pal. society
• Absence of culture of public debate in PA

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Why did the popular uprising of the first
intifada turn into an almost purely armed
conflict?
Israeli workers clear up the remains of a bus
bombed by Palestinian militants.
Palestinian throws Molotov cocktail at Israeli
security forces.
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Initial results

• Kept the conflict in the news (especially by al
  Jazeera TV)
• Substantial shift to the right in Israeli public
  opinion
• New narrative of nonpossibility of negotiated
  peace
• Rhetoric of demonization from both Palestinians
  and Israelis (no partners in peace)
• 50 Palestinian unemployment (up dramatically
  since 2000)
• Wide critiques of PA
• PA inability to provide strategy for resistance
• 65 of Palestinians now classified as below
  poverty line

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Recent trends

• End of al-Aqsa Intifada, 2005?
• Arafat dies, Nov. 11, 2004
• Gaza pullout, Aug/Sept 2005
• Hamas and Islamic Jihad More pragmatic?
• Unilateral Hudna (truce), 2003-2004, and
  temporary ceasefire (Tahdiye) after election of
  Pres. Mahmoud Abbas, March-May 2005
• 2006 PLC elections

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Palestinian governance, 2006
President
Appoints PM cabinet
Directly elected by people
Prime Minister cabinet
??????
Mixed electoral system 50 by PR 50 by plurality
Palestinian Legislative Council 132 members
???
??????
Basic Law (serves as constitution)
A general view over Al Manara roundabout adorned
with posters for the electoral campaign one day
before the legislative elections, in the West
Bank town of Ramallah January 24, 2006.
(MAANnews/Charlotte de Bellabre
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(No Transcript)
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Recent polls (March 2005)

• Palestinian support for bombing (or suicide)
  attacks inside Israel drops from 77 in September
  2004 to 29 in March 2005.
• But no more than 40 believe perpetrators of
  suicide attacks should be arrested.
• In a joint survey of Israelis and Palestinians,
  84 of the Palestinians and 85 of the Israelis
  support a return to negotiations on a
  comprehensive settlement.
• However 59 of Palestinians prefer immediate
  return to final status negotiations on all issues
  in dispute at once, and 31 prefer a gradual
  approach. Among Israelis, 57 prefer a gradual
  approach and 34 prefer a final status solution
  of all issues at once.
• 79 of Palestinians support the participation of
  Hamas in the negotiations with Israel 79 prefer
  to see more active American involvement in the
  search for a peace agreement.

Source Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey
Research http//www.pcpsr.org/