Title: Introduction to Human Population Growth Lecture
1 The Demographic Transition Factors
Influencing Human Fertility
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5A male heir is an object of first importance. By
a son a man obtains victory. By a son's son he
enjoys immortality. And by the son of that
grandson he reaches the solar abode. from
Malthus, 1978, Essay on Principle of Population
6The Population Policy Question
- How can or should the public encourage a decline
in human fertility?
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9Is population growth a big problem, even the
fundamental environmental problem?What can or
should we do about this problem?
10Assumptions of the rational actor model of human
fertility 1. Individuals and families try to
maximize their economic well being. 2. People
make rational decisions about child bearing.
11Two principles of human population growth
(Malthus)1. Human population can grow faster
than the increase in food production.2. Unless
people are starving, they will continue to
reproduce.
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16- KEY RESULTS OF THE EUROPEAN FERTILITY PROJECT
- Prior to the demographic transition there was
little individual initiative to regulate family
size.
17Two principles of human population growth
(Malthus)1. Human population can grow faster
than the increase in food production.2. Unless
people are starving, they will continue to
reproduce.
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19- KEY RESULTS OF THE EUROPEAN FERTILITY PROJECT
- Prior to the demographic transition there was
little individual initiative to regulate family
size. - 2. The death rate declined all across Europe at
about the same time, but the timing of subsequent
birth rate decline varied markedly across the
continent.
20Italy
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22- KEY RESULTS OF THE EUROPEAN FERTILITY PROJECT
- Prior to the demographic transition there was
little individual initiative to regulate family
size. - 2. The death rate declined all across Europe at
about the same time, but the timing of subsequent
birth rate decline varied markedly across the
continent. - 3. The decline in the birth rate exhibited a
threshold behavior once birth rate had declined
by about 10, thereafter it always declined very
rapidly.
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24- KEY RESULTS OF THE EUROPEAN FERTILITY PROJECT
- Prior to the demographic transition there was
little individual initiative to regulate family
size. - 2. The death rate declined all across Europe at
about the same time, but the timing of subsequent
birth rate decline varied markedly across the
continent. - 3. The decline in the birth rate exhibited a
threshold behavior once birth rate had declined
by about 10, thereafter it always declined very
rapidly. - 4. The timing of the birth rate decline (e.g.,
the year in which it reached this threshold) was
spatially clustered.
25In highly secularized areas, fertility is
perceived as yet another aspect of life that is
under individual control, while in areas where
traditional moral codes remain strong, fertility
decisions will not be allowed to come into the
sphere of the "calculus of conscious
choice." European Fertility Project
26There was only one catch and that was Catch-22.
Lieutenant Orr was crazy and could be grounded.
All he had to do was ask and as soon as he did,
he would no longer be crazy and would have to fly
more missions. If he flew them he was crazy and
didnt have to but if he didnt want to he was
sane and had to. Captain Yossarian was moved
very deeply by the absolute simplicity of
Catch-22 and let out a respectful
whistle. Thats some catch, that Catch-22, he
observed. Its the best there is, Doc Daneeka
agreed. Joseph Heller (1961)
27World Fertility Survey Question 1. If you could
choose the number of children to have in your
lifetime, what would that number be?
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