Demography and Human Resources

1
Demography and Human Resources

• Covering China
• JMSC6027
• November 14, 2001

2
Demography is destiny

• Population planning
• resource utilization
• environmental protection
• economic development

3
Useful sites

• China Population Information and Research Center
• http//www.cpric.org.cn/
• US Census Bureau International Data Base
• http//www.census.gov/ipc/
• Population Index
• http//popindex.princeton.edu/

4
population census

• 1.26 billion at the end of 2000.
• Up 132.2 million since 1990.
• Avg annual growth 1991-2000 1.07 pct
• Non-registration
• In cities 2.35 pct
• In the countryside 31.85 pct

5
Looking back

• Average life expectancy improving faster than
  other developing nations
• 1950 38
• (1959-61 famine was a big setback)
• 1978 68
• 1995 69

6
Population growth

• In 1960s, annual growth 4.5 pct to 5.5 pct
• 1970s, about 3.5 pct
• 1979 One-child policy
• Backing off in 1984.
• (No scientific base that controlling population
  growth boosts economic growth)

7
One-child policy

• Announced in 1980.
• Minority nationalities exempted.
• In 1984, policy relaxed especially for farmers
  whose first child was a girl.
• Policy reaffirmed in 1989
• imposing fines, planing for old-age pension
  system, education campaigns, etc.

8
Where are the missing girls?

• Sex ratio at birth
• in 1990 111 boys to 100 girls.
• In 1999 117 boys to 100 girls.
• Normal sex ratio at birth 105 to 107
• In US, females outnumber males by over seven mln,
  by this ratio China should have 28 mln more
  females than males. But China has 32 mln males
  than females -- 60 mln females missing?

9
Structure of population

• Fairly young population in 1982, one third of
  population was under 15 years of age
• Continued growth in total population means the
  labor force increases steadily
• Rapidly ageing population
• In 2000, seven pct, or 65 mln, over 65.
• In 2050, estimated 400 mln over 65.

10
Little emperors

• Children from one-child family, pampered by six
  adults
• 427 mln in 1995
• 66.3 pct family income spent on the child.
• Ego-centric, fickle in taste, easily influened by
  advertising.
• Toys, entertainment, clothing, books, etc.

11
Elderlies

• About 130 mln in 2000
• Will reach 450 mln - a quarter of the population
  - by 2050.
• Urban resident in retirement 50 pct from
  pension, 20 pct subsidies, 10 pct children
• Rural No pension system.
• Women derive 60 pct support from children.

12
Floating population

• Estimated 80 mln people have migrated to the
  cities
• Rural surplus labor still amounts 100 mln.
• Under WTO, which threatens traditional farming,
  more rural population will be forced to leave the
  land. What to do with them?