The Human Population

1
Chapter 7

• The Human Population
• Part 1
• STNT 42
• Case study questions are separate.
• Questions are provided.

2
Case Study The Environmental Implications of
Chinas Growing Populations

1. What is Chinas population? How does China rank
   in population?
2. What is the population of the U.S.?
3. Which of the two countries is the largest
   consumer of resources and the greatest producer
   of pollution?
4. What are the advantages to Chinese people who
   follow the one child policy?

3
Case Study continued

• What other tools has China used to manage their
  population growth?
• What is Chinas fertility rate today?
• Why is it that even with Chinas drop in
  fertility rate their resource consumption rate is
  increasing?
• When is the population of China expected to
  decline?
• What is China doing to offset their environmental
  problems?

4
Is the World Overpopulated?

• The worlds population is now at 7 billion.
• October 31, 2011 was a symbolic date which was
  based on data on the most recently available
  censuses, population registers and other data
  from each country.
• It is very likely that there are inevitable
  inaccuracies in all demographic statistics
  especially in a significant number of developing
  countries.
• Explain the reasons for inaccuracies in
  demographic statistics especially in developing
  countries.

5
How Would You Vote?

• 7 Billion People are Breeding Exponentially
• Should the population of the U.S. be stabilized
  as soon as possible? Answer with a brief
  explaination.
• a) Yes. Governments should use incentives and
  penalties.
• b) Yes. However, only through indirect means,
  like education, or by relying on demographic
  transition.
• c) No. The population of my country could
  continue to grow without serious consequences.

6
Earths Carrying Capacity

• Every 5 days the global human population
  increases by about 1 million people.
• The population was stable until a few hundred
  years ago.
• Human population growth has been exponential for
  the last 400 years.

7
Population Increase

• What are three major factors accounting for the
  exponential population increase?

8
Thomas Malthus

• The question is have we or will we outgrow the
  supply of food, water, timber, fuel and other
  resources?
• 1798 Thomas Malthus made some population
  observations and predictions identified by this
  graph.

• What were Malthus observations?
• What were Malthus predictions?

9
Actually, what has happened?

1. Did Thomas Malthus predictions come true?
2. Actually, what has happened to our food
   production?
3. Explain how this has happened.

10
Changes in Population Size

• Define Demography
• Add to formula page.
• Define migration and explain the two types.

11
Changes in Population Size

• CBR crude birth rate
• Number of births per 1,000 individuals
• CDR crude death rate
• Number of deaths per 1,000 individuals
• Why do you not factor migration when doing
  global population rates?

12
Population Formulas

• Global Population Rate CBR CDR
• 
  10
• National Population Rate (CBR immigr.) (CDR
  emmigr.)
• 10
• Growth rate present population past
  population X 100
• 
  past population
• Because the birth and death rates are expressed
  by 1,000 people, we divide by 10 in order to
  represent the value as a percentage.
• 
  

Add to Formula page
13
Do the Math Growth Rates

• 
  Growth Rate
• Generation 1 14
• Generation 2 18 _____________
• Generation 3 22 _____________
• Generation 4 40 _____________

14
Doubling Time

• If you know the growth rate of a population and
  assume the rate is constant you can calculate the
  doubling time.
• The time it would take the population to double
  in size.
• Doubling time in years 70____
• 
  growth rate
• How long would it take a population to double at
  a 2 growth rate?

Add to formula page
15
Do The Math

• If the population of rabbits in an ecosystem
  grows at a rate of approximately 4 per year, the
  number of years required for the rabbit
  population to double is closest to
• 4 years
• 8 years
• 12 years
• 17 years
• 25 years

16
Projected World Population

• This is a graph of the projected world
  population.
• Most demographers believe the Earths population
  will not double again.

• There is a range of population estimates.
• When are we predicted to reach Earths carrying
  capacity?
• How old will you be?

17
The Lily Pond Parable

1. If a pond lily double everyday and it takes 30
   days to completely cover a pond, on what day will
   the pond be ¼ covered?
2. ½ covered?
3. Does the size of the pond make a difference?
4. What kind of environmental consequences can be
   expected as the 30th day approaches?
5. What will begin to happen at one minute past the
   30th day?
6. At what point (what day) would preventative
   action become necessary to prevent unpleasant
   events?

18
Fertility

1. Define TFR Total Fertility Rate
2. What is the TFR for the United States?
3. Define Replacement-level fertility.
4. What would be the typical replacement?
5. How does the replacement level differ in
   developed countries vs. developing countries?
6. What makes the difference?

19
Life Expectancy

• Average number of years that an infant born in a
  particular year in a particular country can be
  expected to live, given the current average life
  span and death rate of that country.
• What would be true of a country with a higher
  life expectancy?
• What does a higher life expectancy predict?
• What is the difference between the life
  expectancy for males vs. females and what are the
  reasons for the difference.

20
Average Life Expectancies around the World
70 years now
21
Life Expectancy

• Women 1 Japan 86
• 35 United States 81
• Men 1 Qatar 81
• 36 United
  States 76
• Countries 1 Japan 83
• 33 United States 79
• Lowest Sierra Leone 47

Qater

• Oldest living person 122 years
• Jeanne Calment lived on her own until 110 and
  then moved into a nursing home.

22
Infant and Child Mortality
Sweden 2.5 France 3.6

• What is the difference between infant and child
  mortality?

1 Singapore 1.92 34 U.S. 6.81 188
Afghanistan 135.95
23
Infant Mortality

• Why is infant mortality is the single best
  indicator of a societys quality of life?
• List the reasons that U.S. infant mortality is
  higher than it could be.
• How does infant mortality in the U.S. vary
  between African American, Native American and
  Caucasian infants. What are the reason for this
  difference?
• What information can you learn about a country
  based on its infant mortality rates?

24
Aging and Disease

• A country might have a high CDR not because of a
  low standard of living but because it has a high
  number of older individuals.
• What are the largest causes of death worldwide?

25
The AIDS Tragedy

• AIDS is projected to cause premature deaths of
  278 million people between 2000 2050.
• This will be deaths of young people 15-49, not
  infants.
• What are the effects of the loss of young adults
  in a nation?
• Which area is most affected by the AIDS tragedy?

26
POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE

• Visual representation of age structure in a
  country for males and females.
• What does each horizontal bar represent?
• What do the three colors represent?

27

1. Which part of the age structure graph is the
   major factor in determining a countrys
   population growth?

28
Population Momentum

• Define population momentum.

29
POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE

• 2006
• 32 of the people in developing countries were
  under 15 years
• 17 in developed countries.
• Youthful age structure contributes to an
  unemployment crisis.
• Provides for social unrest and recruits for
  terrorist activities.

Figure 6-9
30
POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE

• About 14 of the worlds population live in
  countries with stabilizing or declining
  populations.
• Rapid population decline can lead to long-lasting
  economic and social problems.
• Death from AIDS can disrupt a countrys social
  and economic structure by removing significant
  numbers of young adults.
• What are the costs of an aging population?

31
United States Population
Political clout
Lack of advancement in jobs due to boomers
retiring later.

1. What caused the baby boom?
2. What caused the baby bust?
3. What caused the echo baby boom?

32
U.S. Baby Boomers

• Today, baby boomers make up nearly half of all
  adult Americans.
• How does the size of the baby boomer population
  affect economics in the United Stages?

33
Chapter 7

• Human Population
• Part 2
• STNT 40 questions are provided.

34
Migration

1. Explain the increase in population in the U.S.
   considering a TFR of 2.1.
2. Define Net migration rate.
3. What is a positive/negative net migration rate?

35
U.S. Immigration

• Since 1820, the U.S. has admitted almost twice as
  many immigrants and refugees as all other
  countries combined.

36
Immigration

• Between 1820 and 1960 most legal immigrants came
  from Europe.
• Since 1960 most where have most of the U.S.
  immigrants come from?
• What would be the benefit for the U.S. putting a
  limit on immigration?
• What are the benefits for the U.S. allowing
  immigration?

37
Migration

• This is a national not a global affect.
• Displaced due to disease, natural disasters,
  wars
• Leads to
• Most of the migration is movement of people from
  developing countries to developed countries.
• Net migration rate number of immigrants
• number of people in
  the population
• Add this formula to your formula page.

38
Do The Math Calculating Population Growth

• New Zealand has a population of 4.3 million
  people, a TFR of 2.1 and a net migration rate of
  2 per 1,000.
• How many people will New Zealand gain next year
  as a result of immigration?
• If the TFR stays the same for the next century,
  and the net migration rate stays the same as
  well, when will the population of New Zealand
  double?

39
Theory of Demographic Transition

• Most demographers believe that the Earths
  population is likely to level off by 2100 without
  doubling again.
• Explain the theory of demographic transition.
• Add this theory to your laws page of your
  notebook.

40
4 Phases of Demographic Transition

• For each stage
• Identify the name.

41
Phase 1 Slow Population Growth

• CBR CDR
• Describe the birth rate, death rate and total
  population size during this phase.
• Explain the circumstances which caused birth and
  death rates to be fairly equal.

42
Phase 2Rapid Population Growth

1. Describe the birth rate, death rate and total
   population size during this phase.
2. Explain the circumstances which allowed the rapid
   population growth.
3. Which countries are in phase 2 of demographic
   transition?

43
Phase 3Stable Population Growth

1. Describe birth rates, death rates and total
   population size during this phase.
2. Explain the relationship between increase in
   economy and education which results in decline in
   birth rates.
3. How can such a decrease in birth rates result in
   exponential growth in this phase?

44

1. What information can you get from this graph?

45
Phase 4Declining Population Growth

• Relatively high level of affluence and economic
  development
• Japan, United Kingdom, Germany, Russia, Italy.
• Fewer young people
• High proportion of elderly people
• What are the economic and societal effects of a
  declining population?
• What is happening to birth rates, death rates and
  total population during this phase?

46
Family Planning

1. Define family planning.
2. What services are included in family planning?
3. What benefits other than population decline come
   from family planning?

47
Family Planning

1. What are the environmental characteristics of a
   nation with lower birth rates?
2. List some ideas to improve family planning.

48
Empowering Women

• Provide education, paying jobs, support their
  human rights.
• Women form ½ the worlds population
• Do almost all the worlds domestic work and
  childcare.
• 60 80 of work associated with growing food,
  gathering fuelwood, hauling water.
• Work 2/3 of all hours worked and receive 10 of
  the pay.
• Make up to 70 of the worlds poor and 64 of the
  worlds illiterate adults.

49
TFR Educated vs. Uneducated Women
Developing Countries

1. What information do you get from this graph?

50
Factors Affecting Birth Rates/Fertility Rates

• Importance of children in the work force.
• The cost of raising and educating them.
• Availability of pensions.
• Urbanization.
• Education/employment opportunities for women.
• Infant deaths
• Marriage age.
• Availability of contraception and abortion.
• Religious beliefs, traditions, cultural norms.

1. Compare these factors in developed vs. developing
   countries.

51
Peak of Baby Boom 1957 3.7 Children
Births per woman
Replacement Level
Baby boom (194664)
Amazing changes in lifestyle lead to dramatic
increases in per capita resource use.
Year
Fig. 6-4
How many children are in your family? How many
children do you plan to have?
52
Chinas Family Planning Program

• Family planning was initiated in 1970.
• From 1979 1990 there was a strict one-child
  policy.
• This lead to forced abortions, female infanticide
  and underreporting of female births.
• China moved 300 million people out of poverty.

53

• The government policy is more lenient now.
• Couples with less children get
• Extra food, larger pensions, better housing,
  bonuses, free school, preferential employment.
• Free sterilization, contraception, abortion to
  married couples.
• China is depending on education of the population
  as to the benefits of a reduced population.
• Chinas TFR is 1.6 children per women.

54
Indias Failed Family Planning Program

• Poor planning - Bureaucratic inefficiency.
• Low status of women.
• Extreme poverty ½ of work force is unemployed.
• Lack of administrative financial support.
• Disagreement over the best ways to slow
  population growth.
• Half of crop land is depleted due to soil
  erosion.
• 2/3 of water is polluted, inadequate sanitation.
• Poor need more children to support them.
• Preference for male children.

55
2010-2015
56
Japan A Declining Population

• Birthrates are low.
• TFR 1.3
• Life expectancy is high.
• Marriage rate has plunged, the divorce rate is
  higher than in Northern Europe.
• Traditional stigma around the out-of-wedlock
  childbearing.
• Unmarried Japanese are more likely to embrace
  voluntary childlessness.
• Also Japan has a low immigration rate.
• One of the highest suicide rates in the developed
  world.
• Parasite singles young adults who still live
  with their parents

57
POPULATION SIZE

• The worlds 10 most populous countries in 2008.
• 1of 5 people is Chinese.
• 1of 6 people is Indian.
• China India 36.
• U.S. is the third largest but only 4.5 of the
  people.
• What is the population for China, Japan and the
  U.S.?
• Which countries are expected to decline in
  population?

58
Population Size and Resource Use

• Anthropogenic impact
• Population size
• Resource use
• 7 billion people on earth
• 5.7 billion in developing countries
• 2.3 billion in developed countries
• Which countries on this list are developed
  countries?

12 Largest Countries
59

• 97 of growth is expected to take place in
  developing countries.
• Many people in the developing countries have
  reached middle class status.
• What are the environmental impacts of increase in
  middle class?

60
Per Capita Ecological Footprint

• Measure of affluence money, goods, property.

61
Calculating the Countrys Footprint

• Multiply the countrys per capita ecological
  footprint by the number of people in the country.
• U.S. footprint
• 2,810 million hectares (6,944 acres)
• China
• 2,790 million hectares (6,894 acres)
• U.S. has 1/4th the population of China

62
The IPAT Equation

• To estimate the impact of human lifestyles on
  earth
• What is the IPAT equation?
• How does each of the following affect the
  equation?
• Population
• Affluence
• Technology
• Destructive technology
• Effective technology

63
Local, Global, Urban Impacts

• Local
• Most of the materials consumed in developing
  countries are produced locally.
• What are the benefits?
• What are the environmental impacts?
• What are the two most commonly overused resources?

64
Global Impacts

• Agriculture conversion of land
• Reduction in uptake of CO2
• Increase in fertilizers made from fossil fuels
  increases greenhouse gases.
• Developed countries
• Consume less local resources
• Greater global impact
• Consumption of imported energy and foods.
• Homes with lawns requiring fertilizers,
  pesticides, water.
• Development of suburbs means replacing natural or
  agricultural areas with lawns and asphalt.

65
Urban Impacts

• Urban area
• More than 386 people per square km or 1,000
  people per square mile.
• Of the 20 largest cities in the world, 15 are in
  developing countries.
• More than 75 of people in developed countries
  live in urban areas.
• 45 in developing countries many more people in
  rural areas.

66
Impact of Affluence

• GDP
• Measure of a nations wealth
• Value of all products and services produced in a
  year in that country.
• What does a low level GDP tell about that
  country?
• What are some negative effects of an increase in
  GDP?
• What is the turning point of GDP as a nation
  reaches a more developed status?