Understanding Civil War: What Can Economics Contribute

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Understanding Civil War What Can Economics
Contribute?

• By
• Peter Wallensteen
• Uppsala University
• University of Notre Dame
• Discussant
• The 9th Annual Global Development Conference,
• Brisbane, January 31, 2008

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(No Transcript)
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Armed Conflict (UCDP)

• An armed conflict is a contested incompatibility
  that concerns government and/or territory
• where the use of armed force between two parties,
  of which at least one is the government of a
  state,
• results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in
  one calendar year.
• Furthermore, with more than 1.000 battle-related
  deaths in one calendar year the armed conflict is
  defined as a war.

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Political Violence Uppsala Conflict Data
Program, UCDPSource www.ucdp.uu.se

• 1) armed conflict
• 2) non-state violence
• 3) one-sided violence

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Department of Peace and Conflict Research,
Uppsala University
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Department of Peace and Conflict Research,
Uppsala University
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Marta Reynal-Querols Paper

• Disputes direct causal link between poverty and
  conflict
• Post-conflict recovery growth follows readily but
  sustainability requires institutional
  transformation
• Key institutional factors affect level of
  economic development and level of conflict, and
  the political system is particularly important

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1. Poverty - conflict

• Convincing evidence the 15 poorest and richest
  of The world, Non-OECD and Sub-Saharan Africa,
  and statistical analysis.
• Additional variables to explore
• Kleptocracy Few Rich vs Mass Unemployment
• Conflict Issues
• Conflict Types
• Conflict Intensity
• Preventive Measures
• External Actors
• Regional Connections

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2. Post-conflict Recovery

• MRQ overview supports Phoenix Factor
• What does a War Cost?
• Add Insights from Peacebuilding literature
• More than 150 peace agreements post-1989
• The Danger of Reoccurrence
• Does Growth create Security?

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3. Institutions

• MRQ Inclusive Institutions and
• Proportional Representation.
• Going one step further we may ask
• Does Democracy create Security?
• Security for former Enemies or for Everybody?
• Need for Democracy Plus?
• Need for Territorial Rethinking?

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Final Word

• Urgent Need Conflict Resolution Capacity
• Examples, Measurements,
• Systematic Studies
• Worrying Question Are the Institutional
  Requirements for Economic Development the same as
  those for Peace and Security?
• Answer to the Title Question Yes, there is a
  contribution but it requires more than one
  conference!