Title: Vladislav Lutskov
1Russian Real Estate Market Overview
THE FINE ART OF REAL ESTATE
Vladislav Lutskov General Director MIEL Analytic
Consulting Centre (MIEL ACC) September 2008 Moscow
2Table of contents
- 1. Real Estate as Investment instrument
- Posture in commercial and residential real estate
markets - Office Premises
- Retail Premises
- Exhibition Premises
- Residential Estate - Supply Demand
- Mortgage Lending
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3Investment Instruments
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4Commercial Real Estate Office Premises
- Offices will be actively developed in Moscow
and other cities of Russia (population gt 1
million) during the next 4 years.
Offices construction and supply in Moscow,
ths.sq.m.
Average rental rates (offices), Moscow, 2003-2008
MIEL ACC forecasts NON-REALIZED DEMAND ca. 2,2
mln sq. M OF OFFICE PREMISES in Moscow by 2013
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5Commercial Real Estate Retail Premises
- Retail premises market development stages
- 2006-2010 Market saturates in major cities
- (population gt 1 million)
- 2007-2017 Developers migrate to smaller towns
- (population gt 300 ths.)
- Perspective Retail business formats change
- for new perspective directions
Trade Centers construction and supply in Moscow
as of 1H 2008, ths.sq.m
MIEL ACC forecasts NON-REALIZED DEMAND ca. 1,4
mln sq. m OF RETAIL REAL ESTATE in Moscow by 2013
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6Commercial Real Estate Exhibition Premises
- Moscow
- There are ca. 414,8 ths.sq.m of closed
display premises - in Moscow today
- Moscow exhibition centres that meet morden
standards Crocus Expo, Expocentre, All-Russia
exhibition centre, Sokolniki
Russia
Exhibition Premises of Russia, ths. sq.m
St.Petersburg
Rostov-on-Don
Krasnoyarsk
Nizny Novgorod
Yekaterinburg
Krasnodar
- Exhibition premises development prospects in
Moscow increase at 19,8 within next 5 years
MIEL ACC forecasts NON-REALIZED DEMAND ca. 680
ths. sq. m OF EXHIBITION PREMISES in Moscow by
2013
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7Residential Estate SupplyDemand
Residential area per person, sq.m.
- Housing stock of RF equals about 3 billion sq.m,
including 3.2 of ramshackle housing and those
under the threat of collapse
- 495 000 migrant families have arrived
- in Moscow during 10 last years
- 50 000 apartments are to be built per year in
Moscow - to supply migration demand specifically, while
- 35 000 apartments are offered for sale only
- 81 000 000 Russian residents are willing
- to improve the conditions of living
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8Residential Estate Supply
Average price of supply in Moscow regions
Average price on residential market cost of
construction
Source MIEL ACC
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9Residential Estate Demand
Demand for better living conditions
New residential estate construction, ths.sq.m
Demand saturation
High / average
Low
MIEL ACC forecasts NON-REALIZED DEMAND ca. 60 mln
sq. m of RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE in Moscow by 2010
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10Mortgage Lending Trends in Russia
- Mortgage volume growth in 2007 111
- Issued mortgage loans as for the 1H2008 14,5
bln - Mortgage transactions share growth among
purchase and sale transactions (Moscow region)
2006 from 10 to 15 - 2007 from 15 to 20
- 2008 expected growth to 25
Mortgage lending in regions of Russia
Moscow and Moscow region
Tumen region
Saint-Peterburg
Novosibirsk region
Sverdlovsk region
Source Central Bank of Russian Federation,
Eurotrustbank
Share of mortgages in Russia USA, GDP
Mortgage loans
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