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Title: Vladislav Lutskov


1
Russian Real Estate Market Overview
THE FINE ART OF REAL ESTATE
Vladislav Lutskov General Director MIEL Analytic
Consulting Centre (MIEL ACC) September 2008 Moscow
2
Table of contents
  • 1. Real Estate as Investment instrument
  • Posture in commercial and residential real estate
    markets
  • Office Premises
  • Retail Premises
  • Exhibition Premises
  • Residential Estate - Supply Demand
  • Mortgage Lending

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3
Investment Instruments
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4
Commercial Real Estate Office Premises
  • Offices will be actively developed in Moscow
    and other cities of Russia (population gt 1
    million) during the next 4 years.

Offices construction and supply in Moscow,
ths.sq.m.
Average rental rates (offices), Moscow, 2003-2008
MIEL ACC forecasts NON-REALIZED DEMAND ca. 2,2
mln sq. M OF OFFICE PREMISES in Moscow by 2013
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5
Commercial Real Estate Retail Premises
  • Retail premises market development stages
  • 2006-2010 Market saturates in major cities
  • (population gt 1 million)
  • 2007-2017 Developers migrate to smaller towns
  • (population gt 300 ths.)
  • Perspective Retail business formats change
  • for new perspective directions

Trade Centers construction and supply in Moscow
as of 1H 2008, ths.sq.m
MIEL ACC forecasts NON-REALIZED DEMAND ca. 1,4
mln sq. m OF RETAIL REAL ESTATE in Moscow by 2013
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6
Commercial Real Estate Exhibition Premises
  • Moscow
  • There are ca. 414,8 ths.sq.m of closed
    display premises
  • in Moscow today
  • Moscow exhibition centres that meet morden
    standards Crocus Expo, Expocentre, All-Russia
    exhibition centre, Sokolniki

Russia
Exhibition Premises of Russia, ths. sq.m
St.Petersburg
Rostov-on-Don
Krasnoyarsk
Nizny Novgorod
Yekaterinburg
Krasnodar
  • Exhibition premises development prospects in
    Moscow increase at 19,8 within next 5 years

MIEL ACC forecasts NON-REALIZED DEMAND ca. 680
ths. sq. m OF EXHIBITION PREMISES in Moscow by
2013
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7
Residential Estate SupplyDemand
Residential area per person, sq.m.
  • Housing stock of RF equals about 3 billion sq.m,
    including 3.2 of ramshackle housing and those
    under the threat of collapse

  • 495 000 migrant families have arrived
  • in Moscow during 10 last years
  • 50 000 apartments are to be built per year in
    Moscow
  • to supply migration demand specifically, while
  • 35 000 apartments are offered for sale only
  • 81 000 000 Russian residents are willing
  • to improve the conditions of living

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8
Residential Estate Supply
Average price of supply in Moscow regions
Average price on residential market cost of
construction
Source MIEL ACC
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9
Residential Estate Demand
Demand for better living conditions
New residential estate construction, ths.sq.m
Demand saturation
High / average
Low
MIEL ACC forecasts NON-REALIZED DEMAND ca. 60 mln
sq. m of RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE in Moscow by 2010
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10
Mortgage Lending Trends in Russia
  • Mortgage volume growth in 2007 111
  • Issued mortgage loans as for the 1H2008 14,5
    bln
  • Mortgage transactions share growth among
    purchase and sale transactions (Moscow region)
    2006 from 10 to 15
  • 2007 from 15 to 20
  • 2008 expected growth to 25

Mortgage lending in regions of Russia
Moscow and Moscow region
Tumen region
Saint-Peterburg
Novosibirsk region
Sverdlovsk region
Source Central Bank of Russian Federation,
Eurotrustbank
Share of mortgages in Russia USA, GDP
Mortgage loans
10
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