Title: Water Optimizer
1Potential Effects of Biofuels on Irrigation and
Water Policy Research and Education Implications
Ray Supalla, Department of Ag Economics and Suat
Irmak, Biological Systems Engineering University
of Nebraska - Lincoln
2MILLIONS OF ACRES IRRIGATED IN 2002
1.8
2.1
1.7
3.1
1.4
7.5
2003 Farm Ranch Irrigation SurveyCensus of
Agriculture
1.1
2.6
1.0
2.5
8.5
3.9
WATER USE IN STATES WITH LARGEST CONSUMPTION
1.2
4.9
1.5
Reallocations for future needs must come from
agriculture! Very limited potential for
increasing irrigation consumptive use.
3Water Management Challenges
Groundwater Mining A Widespread Problem Which We
Must Address in the 21st Century
4Demand Exceeds Supply in Parts of Nebraska
5The Water Policy Challenge for the Western U. S.
Getting by with Less Management Options in an
Era of Increasingly Scarce Water Supplies
- How serious is this problem?
- 62 Million Irrigated Acres
- 90 of consumptive use in West is for irrigation
- Reallocations to meet future needs must come
from agriculture - Agricultural economy must be sustained as
reallocations occur - Problem is exacerbated by biofuel demands.
-
6Biofuel Impact on Grain Prices
Crop Corn Soybeans Grain Sorghum Wheat
Historical (96-05) Current
3.35 6.25 3.25 4.50
2.40 5.50 2.30 3.50
Chicago futures price for corn December 2007
3.94 December 2008 3.79
7If current grain prices are sustained?
- The economic returns to irrigation will double
from about 125 to 250 per acre. - This will create strong incentives to
- Develop additional irrigated acreage.
- Apply more water and nitrogen to maximize yields,
where ever more water is available. - Increase output per unit of applied water,
especially where water supplies are limited.
8Increased returns to irrigation present a major
threat to water policy objectives
- The economic cost of retiring acres in over
appropriated basins at least doubles. - The cost of reducing consumptive use from
irrigation also doubles. - Efforts to maximize yield will increase leaching
of nitrates to groundwater. - Final outcome will depend on political will,
research and education.
9The Research Education Task Increase Yield
without Increasing Basin Losses
YIELD
10Research and education questions
- How can we achieve more yield without increasing
consumptive use? - What do we mean by consumptive water use? How
does it differ from ET? Are we on the same page? - How much crop reside can we remove without
increasing surface soil evaporation? - Are there hybrids that use less water and
produce high yields? - What is evaporation and ET from different
surfaces? - How reliable is the information on
high-ethanol-yielding hybrids? - Do we have resources/facilities to address these
questions? - What is the most effective way to transfer this
information to clientele?
Suat Irmak, Department of Biological Systems
Engineering
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15Suat Irmak, Department of Biological Systems
Engineering
16New low pressure system research
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30ET versus Consumptive water use!
Hybrid Irrigation (in) Irrigated crop ET (in) Dryland crop ET (in) Consumptive water use (in) Irrigated yield (bu/ac) Dryland yield (bu/ac) WUE (bu/in) IWUE (bu/in)
1 9.5 16.6 10.8 5.8 217 124 5.6 9.8
2 9.5 17.8 11.2 6.6 211 108 5.8 10.9
3 9.5 18.1 12.6 5.5 247 125 6.7 12.8
4 9.5 19.3 10.3 9.0 252 142 5.7 11.6
5 9.5 16.1 10.2 5.9 228 145 5.1 8.7
6 9.5 18.2 10.5 7.7 233 150 4.6 8.8
7 9.5 18.8 12.2 6.6 198 126 3.8 7.5
Suat Irmak, Department of Biological Systems
Engineering
31Thank you!
Questions?
Time flies!
I can foretell a lot about celestial bodies, but
can say a little about the movement of a small
drop of water
Galileo Galilei, 1564-1642
Suat Irmak, Department of Biological Systems
Engineering