Deterrence and Containment of Iran

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Deterrence and Containment of Iran

• Francisco Angel
• Ganesha High School

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Brief History on Deterrence

• Deterrence the act or process of discouraging
  actions or preventing occurrences by instilling
  fear or doubt or anxiety
• Nuclear deterrence began to be used by the United
  States during the Cold War.
• The U.S. deterred The Soviet Union by using the
  threat of massive retaliation

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Deterrence Continuation

• This type of deterrence restrained the
  superpowers from attacking each other because of
  mutually assured destruction (MAD), which is the
  certainty of being annihilated.

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Realist View on Iran

• Iran will acquire weapons of mass destruction
  because it has enough low-enriched uranium (LEU)
  to yield enough high-enriched uranium for a
  single nuclear weapon.
• They have already tested two new higher
  centrifuges with higher capacities at a uranium
  enrichment plant in Natanz.
• Iran has about 3,000 centrifuges creating
  enriched uranium.
• Iran is a state that wants to dissuade an attack.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visits the Natanz uranium
enrichment plant.
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Continuation (Realist View)

• Iran feels pressured by world powers, especially
  with the U.S. stationed on both sides of Iran.
• Iran is currently defying Security Council
  resolutions ordering it to suspend the enrichment
  of uranium until their peaceful intentions are
  established.

U.S. presence in Iraq and Afghanistan pressures
Iran into the search of self-defense methods.
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Iran and the Bomb

• When Iran acquires the bomb, it will use it to
  show the whole world that they are capable of
  being at the same level as all the world powers.
• It is very likely that they will not use it,
  especially because their arsenal will be at an
  early stage and with the fact that they will be
  completely annihilated by the U.S. or other world
  powers nuclear arsenals.

• Intervention by the U.S. or any other world power
  might push Iran into using the bomb.

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Deterrence Containment on Iran

• If Iran was to acquire nuclear weapons, deterring
  Iran will be just like deterring during the Cold
  War.
• Deterrence proved successful during the Cold War
  in keeping the peace.

• The use of aggressive force will create fear
  within the Iranians of being completely
  annihilated.

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Historical Background on Containment

• Containment was first coined as a term referring
  to the containing of the spread of communism.
• It was primarily used as foreign policy towards
  the Soviet Union from spreading its influence
  into the region.
• The use of deterrence enforced the containment
  policy during the Cold War, and not a single shot
  was fired between both superpowers.

• We must follow and enforce containment in Iran
  because a nuclear Iran will try to spread its
  influence to neighboring countries that already
  dislike the U.S., creating more chaos.

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Therefore

• The U.S. will need to follow the principle of
  containment to prevent Iran from spreading its
  influence in the region, or from bullying its
  neighboring countries.

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So what will Iran do?

• Peace will eventually come by deterring Iran.
• -If Iran is to get the bomb, they would feel
  useless in actually trying to use it because of
  the aggressive deterrence policy of the United
  States.
• Iran will have no choice but to negotiate with
  the world powers.

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Conclusion

• Iran will get the bomb, despite any action
  performed by any world power.
• All Iran wants is the satisfaction of actually
  obtaining a bomb.
• They want world recognition as a nuclear state.
• After obtaining the bomb, Iran will be open to
  negotiating with other nuclear countries,
  especially with the deterrence coming from the
  U.S.
• Therefore, there is no use of intervening with
  Irans nuclear program.

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Bibliography

• http//www.atomicarchive.com/History/coldwar/page1
  5.shtml
• http//experts.foreignpolicy.com/category/topic/ir
  an
• http//www.theworld.org/node/5815
• http//www.cfr.org/publication/18570/iran_may_achi
  eve_capability_to_make_a_nuclear_weapon_in_2009.ht
  ml
• http//www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2006/09/
  how_to_keep_the_bomb_from_iran.html