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The Harmful Algal Bloom Forecasting System
Where is it now and where will it be tomorrow?

• Nowcasts and Forecasts to Support State and Local
  Managers to
• Improve detection
• Reduce impacts on tourism
• Plan response activities
• Improve public information
• Guide sampling

Photo www.whoi.edu
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Multiple Audiences, Multiple Needs
Traditional

• Monitoring agencies
• require frequent and timely information and are
  willing to accept
• some uncertainty in their HAB forecasts.
• use this information to guide sampling efforts
  and keep false alerts
• to a minimum.
• Industry and Public
• concerned about public health impacts
• accurate information to mitigate impacts of red
  tide
• public wants specific locations and forecasts so
  they can adjust beach plans.

New
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Need for Timely Information

• Primary users of information
• Fisheries managers (shellfish)
• Water Quality managers
• Public health officials
• Local government

• Additional users
• General public
• Tourist industry
• Research community
• Teachers
• Media

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Current Status of System for the Gulf of Mexico

• Florida, (operational since 2004),
  Collaboration with state agencies
• Operational Bulletin for managers in Florida
• Conditions Report available to the public
• Texas, Collaboration with TPWD and TexHAB
• Experimental Bulletin available now
• Operational demonstration bulletin for managers
  (Oct 1, 2006)
• Conditions Report available to the public (Oct 1,
  2006)

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HAB Forecast System
Model output (physical, ecological, health
impacts)
Observations (satellite imagery, Buoys, field
samples)
Analysis of data and models
Conditions Report
Conditions Report (public)
HAB Bulletin (managers)
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What is operational?

• Operational on a 5-day week (Analysts available
  every day)
• Comprehensive analysis and graphics e-mailed to
  state/local managers at least twice a week
  (subscription only)
• Information to public and businesses twice a week
  
• Bulletins available to the public after minimum 1
  week delay
• Public Information updated twice weekly- text
  only (Web-based)
• Current conditions and expected conditions for
  next 1-3 days
• Other information available on Web-site
• Various data sets have been available for over
  two years

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Bulletin Distributed to State/Local/Federal
Managers
Page 1
Page 1
Page 2
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Agencies using HAB Bulletin
Over 40 agencies County Government State
Government Federal Government Non-governmental
organizations
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Conditions Report for Public

• Available to public on HAB FS website when
  bulletin is issued
• Provides information only on verified blooms
• Contains minimal scientific terminology and
  jargon

http//www.csc.noaa.gov/crs/habf
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Conditions Report

• Provides information on
• Location of verified blooms
• Expected impacts at the beach
• Presence of harmless blooms and discolored water
• Reports of dead fish.
• Example Conditions Low concentration of harmful
  algae offshore of Nueces County, forecasted
  southwesterly winds
• Conditions Report

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Conditions Report for Red Tide Impact at the
Beach
NOAA Data, State data Satellite Imagery Models
(transport, impacts) Analysis
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Additional Information Provided to the Public
The FAQs provide information regarding

• Data sources
• Background on K. brevis biology
• Possible beach and human health impacts
• What information is provided by HAB FS
• Frequency of Conditions Report publication
• Explanation of Red tide/HAB terminology
• Further resources and guidance

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Feedback is Critical to Continued Success

• Rick Stumpf or Shelly Tomlinson
• richard.stumpf_at_noaa.gov, 301-713-3028 x173
• michelle.tomlinson_at_noaa.gov, 301-713-3028 x225
• Rebecca Love
• rebecca.love_at_noaa.gov, 843-740-1169
• Emails on Red Tides (HABs) hab_at_noaa.gov
• Site www.csc.noaa.gov/crs/habf