Chesapeake Bay Modeling Symposium

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Establishment of a Delaware Bay Model Evaluation
Environment (DRBMEE)
Richard Patchen NOAA/NOS/Coast Survey Development
Laboratory
Chesapeake Bay Modeling Symposium Annapolis,
MD 12-14 May 2008
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Outline
Introduction Community Models Selection of
Delaware River and Bay Components of MEE Modeling
Strategy Summary of Modeling Evaluations Future
Directions
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Introduction
NOS/CSDL implementation, vetting, and transition
to Center for Operational Oceanographic Products
and Services (CO-OPS) for operational
status Support Ecosystem modeling needs Coastal
Ocean Modeling Framework Core Community
Models Modeling Accuracy/Skill Standards
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Community Models
Princeton Ocean Model (POM) Regional Ocean Model
System (ROMS) Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model
(FVCOM) Advanced Circulation Model
(ADCIRC) Eulerian-Lagrangian Circulation Model
(ELCIRC) and the Semi-implicit Eulerian-Lagrangian
Finite Element Model (SELFE).
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Selection of Delaware River and Bay (DRB)
Why DRB? Typical of several East Coast
Estuaries, where a tidally dominant system can be
significantly impacted by surges at entrance and
freshwater events Influence of the CD Wide
shelf Availability of a comprehensive data set
(NOS survey 1984-1985) which consisted of 23
water level gages, 45 current meters locations
with multiple depths, and an extensive CTD
program of cast, transects, and time series
stations Future NOS Operational Forecast System
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Components of MEE
Observations (Historical/Real-time) Bathymetry
and Shoreline Model Initial and Synoptic
Conditions Model Grids Skill Assessment Metrics
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Historical Observations
NOS Circulation Survey (March 1984-May 1985)
Current Meter Locations/with Conductivity and
Temperature sensors
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Historical Observations
NOS Circulation Survey (March 1984-May 1985)
Current Meter Locations/with Conductivity and
Temperature sensors
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Historical Observations
NOS Circulation Survey (March 1984-May 1985)
Current Meter Locations/with Conductivity and
Temperature sensors
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Historical Observations
NOS Circulation Survey (March 1984-May 1985)
Water Level Gage Locations
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Historical Observations
NOS Circulation Survey (March 1984-May 1985)
Water Level Gage Locations
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Establish Bathymetry for the entire region
NOS Soundings
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Model Initial and Synoptic Conditions
Initial/Lateral Boundary Conditions for
Salinity/Temperature from WOA 2001 Synoptic
Meteorological Conditions from NOAAs 32km
Re-analysis/NOAA Buoys, C-Man stations,
Airports River Discharges/Water Temperatures from
USGS Shelf Lateral Boundary Conditions from
ADCIRC (EC95) Hindcast with Tides/Synoptic
Meteorological Conditions CD Canal NOS
Observations/VDatum ADCIRC Chesapeake/Delaware
Bay Tidal Hindcast
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Structured Model Grid
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Structured Model Grid
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Unstructured Model Grid
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Skill Assessment
Tidal Dynamics Compute Tidal Constituents at
Water Level and Current Meter Locations Produce
Tidal Constituent Maps/Observed, Model,
Differences for Amplitude and Phase Observed
Times series plots for water levels, currents,
salinity, temperature at depth and differences of
salinity and temperature between depths NOS skill
assessment criteria, including RMSE and Central
Frequency, i.e., 90 within 15 cm for water
level, 26 cm-1sec for currents Compute Skill
Metric for water level, currents, salinity,
temperatures Non-Tidal Events Storm surge and
Freshets Times series plots for water levels
after 30 hour lowpass filter
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Modeling Strategy
Tidal Simulation Baseline Density
Experiments High River Runoff Hindcast March 21
September 7, 1984
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Tidal Simulation
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Tidal Simulation
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Hindcast
Period March 21 September 7, 1984 Late spring
storm
March 29, 1984
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Hindcast
Period March 21 September 7, 1984 Three
periods of strong freshets
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Hindcast Skill
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Hindcast Skill
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Hindcast Skill
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Hindcast Skill
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Hindcast Skill
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Hindcast Skill
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Hindcast Skill
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Hindcast Skill
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Hindcast Skill
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Summary Overview of Delaware Bay MEE
Bathymetry
Grids
Metrics
Model Hindcast
COMMUNITY MODELS
ROMS, POM, ADCIRC, FVCOM, ELCIRC, SELFE, ....
Historical Data
Environmental conditions
Grids, Bathymetry, Environmental conditions
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Future Directions
Continue DRB individual model enhancements/re-eval
uation Investigate additional model metrics Make
available MEE to other Federal, State, and
Private interested groups via web based system
Look for opportunities for further
collaborations Implementation of MEEs for other
dynamical regimes
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Acknowledgements
Frank Aikman, Chief of Marine Modeling and
Analysis Programs with CSDL, Lyon Lanerolle,
Edward Myers, Hong Lin, John Kelley, Eugene Wei,
Richard Schmalz, Phil Richardson, Aijun Zhang,
Micah Wengren, Zhizhang Yang, Adeline Wong, and
Tom Gross. I also want to thank Mary Erickson,
the Chief of CSDL and Maureen Kenny, the Deputy
Chief of CSDL for their commitment to this
effort.
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