Ocean heat content and Earths Radiation Imbalance

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Ocean heat content and Earths Radiation
Imbalance
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Heartland Conference NYC, Mar 9, 2009
David Douglass Dept of Physics and Astronomy Uni
versity of Rochester Rochester, NY 14618 douglas
s_at_pas.rochester.edu

Douglass Heartland_A March 9, 2009
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Ocean heat content and Earths Radiation Imbalance
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• Distinct time intervals of alternating positive
  and negative imbalance are found 1960 to the
  mid-1970s, the mid-1970s to 2000 and 2001 to
  present.
• The respective mean values of radiation imbalance
  t are 0.15, 0.15, and 0.2 to 0.3 W/m2.
  
• These are consistent with prior observations of
  climate shifts at 1960, the mid-1970s, and early
  2001.
  
• Climate predictability is limited because of
  these shifts.
  
• Any climate forcing by CO2 is shown to be small.

Douglass Heartland_A March 9, 2009
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Radiation balance
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TOA flux measured (satellite) or inferred (ocean
heat)
Heat from interior of earth
Douglass Heartland_A March 9, 2009
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Imbalance at TOA
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• 4 independent investigations
• ocean heat content data
• Domingues
• Willis
• Levitus
• direct measurements (satellites)
• Wong

Douglass Heartland_A March 9, 2009
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Energy Imbalance(1950 to 2000)
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Douglass Heartland_A March 9, 2009
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Energy Imbalance(2000 to 2010)
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From CERES And Inferred from Argo
Incoming from Sun
Douglass Heartland_A March 9, 2009
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Summary Imbalance vs time
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Douglass Heartland_A March 9, 2009
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Summary
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• Distinct time intervals of alternating positive
  and negative imbalance are found 1960 to the
  mid-1970s, the mid-1970s to 2000 and 2001-02.
  
• These are consistent with prior observations of
  climate shifts.

Douglass Heartland_A March 9, 2009
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Summary (continued)
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• Climate predictability is limited because of
  these shifts.
  
• Any climate forcing by CO2 is shown to be small.
• Our results strongly indicate that there is very
  little warming commitment or heating in the
  pipeline

Douglass Heartland_A March 9, 2009
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Ocean heat content and Earths Radiation
Imbalance
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• Thank you

Douglass Heartland_A March 9, 2009