Introduction title

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Introduction title
How Change Happens Duncan Green Notre Dame
University September 2009
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There is nothing permanent except
change Heraclitus 6th Century BC

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A famous example The abolition of slavery
1780 1807 1838

• Half a million African slaves work on the sugar
  plantations of British colonies
• British Parliament bans the slave trade
• Slavery banned altogether 800,000 slaves of the
  British Empire win their freedom

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Dynamics of Change

• Waves of slave rebellion in America and Caribbean
  ? Haiti becomes first independent black republic
  in 1804

Britain at war with France, where Napoleon
reintroduces slavery and oppose Haitis
independence opposing slavery becomes part of
war effort.
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Some initial conclusions

• Many factors combine in any given change
• Path dependence one change triggers another
• Coalitions and alliances (especially
  insider/outsider) can play crucial role
• External shocks (eg wars) often catalysts of
  change

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4 components of change

• Context
• Technology, environment, demography,
  globalization
• Institutions
• Culture, ethnicity, religion, attitudes and
  beliefs
• Civil Service, judiciary, electoral democracy,
  essential services,
• Agents
• Social Movements, elites, political leaders,
  private sector, media
• Events
• Conflicts, natural disasters, political and
  economic crises

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Dynamics and pathways
Cumulative and Sequential
Chaotic
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How Change Happens The Chiquitanos
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How Change Happens The Chiquitanos

• 3 July 2007 The Chiquitanos win rights to 1
  million hectares of traditional lands in Eastern
  Bolivia
• Until 1980 they lived in semi-feudal conditions
• How did it happen?

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Components of change

• Context Economic Crisis in the 1980s, leading to
  structural adjustment, rising inequality and
  crisis of legitimacy for traditional parties and
  trade unions
• Institutions rise of indigenous identity
  decentralization and agrarian reform
• Agents New generation of indigenous leaders
  ex-miners arrive in Sta Cruz
• Events lightbulb moments - breaking into the
  mayors office marching to La Paz the election
  of Evo Morales

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Dynamics of change

• Historical memory of colonialism and
  repression, but also of the 1952 revolucion
• Slow legal processes and move into formal
  politics, but punctuated by political moments and
  events
• Importance of alliances with altiplano Indians
• Water wars and the fall of presidents lead to
  election of Evo Morales 2005

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Is change predictable?

• Non-linear change non-elephant animals at the
  zoo (weather, stock markets, social unrest)
• Planners v searchers
• Evolutionary change differentiate/select/amplify
  a good model, but works better for markets than
  society
• Possible non-linear models of change for change
  agents
• Solidarity
• Venture Capitalism
• US Marines (Afghan Solidarity Programme)

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Final thoughts Some problems with current
thinking on change

• We fail to grasp or respond to the impact of
  shocks as generators of sudden change
• Focus on above the waterline issues such as
  policies and laws, at the expense of attitudes,
  beliefs and relationships
• Reject (rather than understand/engage with)
  technology

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Further Reading from the Blog

• The Global Crisis and technology long waves,
  www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p293
• Building womens leadership what works?,
  www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p262
• What can Economics learn from Evolutionary
  theory? www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p115
• Shocks and Change, www.oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/?p8

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Further Reading

• From Poverty to Power, Annex on How Change
  Happens
• How Change Happens, Roman Kznaric,
  www.oxfam.org.uk/resources/issues/education/downlo
  ads/research_change.pdf
• DFIDs Drivers of Change website,
  www.gsdrc.org/go/topic-guides/drivers-of-change