100 Years vs' 10 Years

1
100 Years vs. 10 Years

• Richard Stastny, ÖFEG

The opinions expressed here may or may not be
that of my company
2
The Questions raised

• The traditional network supports services that
  the government has seen as important, such as
  emergency services, wiretapping, and lifeline
  services.
• Should VoIP be subsidizing these activities in
  the same way? Or should new structures be put in
  place?
• How have the requirements changed thanks to
  wireline and wireless?
• What is the expectation for integration
  technology?
• Are the differences in the countries standards
  forcing delays?
• Will a common infrastructure be needed? How
  should it be paid for?

I will try to give at least some answers
3
Content

• Setting the scene
• Where are we?
• the past and the current situation
• What are the possible ways forward?
• Where will we be in 5 years?
• What are the issues related to the questions
  raised

4
A Change of Perspective
Cable
Traditional View
Broadcast
Telephony
Data
Wireless
Kevin Werbach
5
A Change of Perspective
Cable
Current View
Data
Broadcast
Telephony
Wireless
Kevin Werbach
6
A Change of Perspective
Content
Data
Reality
Web
Devices
Apps
Voice
Users
Video
Email
File Transfer
Cable
Wireless
Satellite
Fiber
Kevin Werbach
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The hourglass model
Everything over IP
IP to and from Everywhere
IP over Everything
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100 Years vs. 10 Years vs. 5 Years

• 100 years of telephony
• 50 years of packet networks
• 30 years of digital switching
• 30 years of globally automated dialing
• 10 years of cellular (GSM)
• 10 years of the WWW
• 5 years of VoIP (IP Communications)
• Now Personal-Wireless-Broadband C.
• Where will we be in 5 years?

9
Broadbands fast growth
Broadband access has quietly grown faster than
mobile phones in their early stages
Source ITU World Telecommunication Indicators
Database
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Transition from TDM to VoIP
BT 2015 DT 2019
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Two Global (IP-based) Networks
Global Phone Network
Global Internet

• heavily regulated
• optimized for speech
• end of lifetime
• accounting cascading,termination fees
• vertically integrated
• global connectivity
• mobility via roaming

• (still) unregulated
• multipurpose
• regarding IP Comm.
• begin of lifetime
• accounting peering
• horizontally layered
• global connectivity
• mobility and nomadic usage natively

NGN
P2P
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? Telcos are vertically integrated
Regulatory boundaries
T E LCO
T E LCO
T E LCO
T E LCO
Services
Transport
TISPAN3GPP ATISNGN
TISPAN3GPP ATISNGN
Access
13
Internet horizontal layering
Regulatory boundaries?
...
Services
SIP
MAIL
IM
WEB
GlobalInternet
Transport
P2P
...
xDSLCableFTTH
PSTN ISDN
GSMUMTS
Access
W-LAN
Viral Networks
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The next 5 years?

• Now lets assume the end-to-end Internet
  philosophy is taken seriously and the horizontal
  approach is followed up further
• What will be the future developments?
• EoIP IPoE IP Anywhere
• Broadband as Universal Service
• Triple play, Computainment, rich and simple SW
• Personal, mobile/nomadic, general purpose devices
• Wireless communications
• P2P serverless communication (also with SIP)
• Meshed networks
• Viral communications ambient, organic networks

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Viral communications and organic networks

• Viral Communications Media Laboratory Research
  (Andrew Lippman, David P.Reed, A. Pentland)
• Viral communications derives directly from the
  end-to-end principle on which the Internet is
  based the intelligence is in the end nodes, the
  network itself maintaining as little state as
  possible.
• Communications are poised to become personal,
  embedded features of the world around us. New
  technologies allow us to make wired and wireless
  devices that are ad hoc, incrementally installed
  and populous almost without limit.
• They need no backbone or infrastructure in order
  to work instead, they use neighbors to
  bootstrap both bit delivery and geolocation.
• This re-distributes ownership of communications
  from a vertically integrated provider to the
  end-user or end-device and segregates bit
  delivery from services.
• Communications can become something you do rather
  than something you buy.

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The Impact?

• Based on these assumptions,
• what will be the impact of these developments
  on
• Regulation?
• Universal Service Obligations?
• Universal Service Funding?
• Emergency Services?
• Legal Intercept?
• Side RemarkThe real regulatory battle of the
  futureDigital Rights Management

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Mike Powells 4 Internet Freedoms

• Freedom to Access Content Consumers should have
  access to their choice of legal content
• Freedom to Use Applications Consumers should be
  able to run applications of their choice
• Freedom to Attach Personal Devices Consumers
  should be permitted to attach any devices they
  choose to the connection in their homes and
• Freedom to Obtain Service Plan Information
  Consumers should receive meaningful information
  regarding their service plans.
• add Freedom to obtain your own location
  information

? regulation to concentrate on bottlenecks
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Universal Service Obligations

• Even if broadband will be the Universal Service
  of the future and viral networks will be used in
  densely populated areas
• there needs to be access to link the viral
  networks to the backbone
• and people will be more and more accustomed to
  have access everywhere
• So the question remains
• Who will (be obliged to) provide
• communication access in sparsely populated areas?
• provide the infrastructure for access to
  emergency services?
• access to legal intercept?

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Universal Service Funding

• If access providers are needed to provide
  services at least in the gaps
• Do they need to be funded or will there remain
  enough competition?
• If they need to be funded, by whom?
• The backbone and infrastructure providers?
• The tax payers?

20
New Emergency Service Requirements

• It shall be possible to contact the LOCAL
  emergency center (ECC) from EVERY device
  connected to the Internet
• Additional requirements
• Indication of callers location at the ECC
• Call back capability to the device
  used,(temporary E.164 numbers, GRUUs)
• Identification of the calling party (person)
• Communication not only with voice, but also with
  text and video
• Emergency Service a subscribed service?

21
New Emergency Service Obligations

• Obligations to provide information and access to
  emergency services will move from
• the telcos
• to
• access providers
• infrastructure providers
• device manufacturers
• operating system providers
• basically to provide and make use of location
  information
• Requires Freedom to obtain location information

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New Legal Intercept Questions

• Two basic questions in LI
• Who is contacting whom?
• Can be retrieved from servers/proxies
• How is this done in P2P networks?
• How to intercept the media?
• Can only be done at the access
• How to be sure to monitor the right individual?
• What about end-to-end encyption?

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The End

• Thank you

Richard Stastny ÖFEG 43 664 420
4100 richard.stastny_at_oefeg.at