Title: Student Longitudinal Growth Project
1Student Longitudinal Growth Project
- Jonathan Wiens
- Office of Assessment and Information Services
- Oregon Department of Education
2Model Development
- 1/08 to 8/08 ODE researches growth models, and
- tests them with historic test data
- 3/08-9/08 ODE shares models with internal and
- external advisory committees
- 9/08-11/08 ODE, stakeholders, and technical
- consultant refine details of leading
- candidates, with stakeholder
input - 11/08-12/08 ODE, advisors recommend the
Student Centered model - 12/08- 4/09 ODE presents Student Centered
- Growth model for wider review.
3Growth Models
- A Growth Model is a method of measuring student
learning over time. - Growth models can provide a more dynamic view of
school effectiveness. - Growth models can allow schools receive credit
for - closing the Achievement Gap
- accelerating student learning
- moving students closer to standard
4Individual Student Growth
- The most detailed view of growth occurs at the
- student level.
- Which years are a success for the student and for
- the school?
- - The Gap is the difference between the
student score and the cut score.
5The Student Centered Model
- Students below standard in the previous year are
given a target score for the current year. - Students whose score is at or above their target
meet growth. - Targets are based on the students prior year
test score. - Students are expected to grow toward meeting
standard. - Lower performing students must exhibit higher
growth. - - does not apply to 10th grade.
6 Sample Reading Growth Targets Growth
targets will require the gap between a
students score and benchmark to decrease over
time, generally by about 40 to 50 each year.
7Required Gap closures
- The gap closures below are based on growth in the
meets scores over one- and three- year periods.
8Median Reading Growth Actual Data
9Sample Trajectories
- The next charts show the trajectories of students
who exactly meet their growth targets each year. - The charts include the option for growth toward
a 236 for those meeting or exceeding (these are
still draft and are not used in accountability). - Four examples are given one student each at the
Very Low, Low, Meets, and Exceeds.
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1207-08 Statewide Results
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14Percent Meeting Growth Based on Prior Year Score
15Reading Longitudinal Student Growth Report
Mock-Up
16School Centered Model
- Examines the effect of a students prior year
test score on the odds a student will meet in the
current year. - Suggested by American Institutes of Research
(AIR), which has worked on growth with two other
states.
17Percent Meeting in 4th Grade by 3rd Grade Score
Statewide Results 2006-07 to 2007-08
18Range of School Effects
This chart shows the models highest and lowest
performing schools at 4th grade in 2007-08.
Notice the wide range in school effects.
19Probability Spreadsheet
- The spreadsheet contains district level data.
ODE plans to release this data before the end of
the school year.
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21Report Card School Rating Formula
22Timeline
- Sept 24 Preview of Detail sheets
- Oct 1 Preview of Summary sheets
- Oct 15 2nd preview
- Oct 29 3rd preview
- Nov 5 Final district preview
- Nov 10 Public Release
23Changes to the Report Card
- Only three overall rating categories
- Outstanding
- Satisfactory
- In Need of Improvement
- Graduation Rates used instead of dropout rates.
- The growth model will be incorporated into the
rating formula.
24New Report Card Values
- We reward schools for
- students meeting standard
- students exceeding standard
- students showing growth
- closing the achievement gap
- We have been developing this model since Summer
2008 with input from key stakeholder advisory
groups
25The New Achievement Index
- Points awarded according to
- 133 points for Exceeds
- 100 points for Meets
- 100 points for Did Not Meet, but Met Growth
- Use the same students as are used for AYP
- includes extended assessments
- includes the 1 rule for extended assessments
- At high school we will use growth in school
performance as the growth measure, and will give
partial credit for nearly meets and low.
26Overall Rating
- Subgroups are not rated, only a holistic school
rating is given. - To address the Achievement Gap, a schools
Achievement Index is a weighted average the
achievement of subgroups. - Subgroups in the weighting include All Students
plus subgroups with an historic statewide
achievement gap. - Low Attendance/Graduation and Participation can
lower the school rating.
27Detail Sheet Preview
28Likely Impact on School Ratings
- About half of the formerly strong schools will
be rated as Outstanding - Low and Unsatisfactory schools generally move
to Needs Improvement - The following table shows how schools would have
been rated in 07-08 if the new formula had been
applied.
29Potential Changes Impact on Ratings
30Cohort Graduation Rate
31Timeline
- June 2009 -- The 0708 Informational Cohort Rate
provided to districts. - Summer 2009 -- ODE will submit for approval from
the US Department of Education - Summer 2009 -- begin data cleanup for the 0809
cohort - Spring 2010 -- 2008-09 Cohort rate will be
reported - Fall 2010 -- 2008-09 Cohort rate will be used in
AYP determinations
32What is the Cohort Rate?
- The Cohort Rate is the percent of students who
receive a regular diploma within four years of
entering high school. - The Cohort Rate tracks students over the course
of 4 years starting with their first year in high
school. - Each member of a cohort will be assigned a final
outcome at the end of the four years.
33Data Sources and Process
- The Cohort rate uses Resident Institution only.
- ODE uses records from ADM, Membership, Early
Leavers, and High School Completers to assign
students to a probable cohort. - Districts confirm the cohort of the student.
- Final outcomes are determined from the most
recent events in our databases. - Students are assigned to their most recent
diploma granting institution.
34Who is included?
- The unadjusted cohort is comprised of any
student, enrolled in an Oregon public school by
the end of the 2007-08 school year, who first
entered high school in 2004-05 in any school
inside or outside Oregon. - The adjusted cohort is comprised of the
unadjusted cohort minus students who died,
entered the home schooling system, or transferred
out to a diploma granting institution outside the
Oregon Public Education system as their final
high school educational setting.
35Sample Statewide Data
36Federal Requirements
- State must set a graduation Goal
- This need not be 100
- State must set yearly targets that show
significant progress toward the goal - Minimum group size should not exceed the minimum
group size for participation (40). - Margin of Error is unlikely to be approved.
37Federal Flexibility
- AYP reports may average data over two years, or
use the most recent year, whichever is higher. - States are responsible for developing subgroup
membership rules. - Four-year rate can include summer graduates.
38Available Options
- State may develop an extended-year rate.
- It may not supplant the four-year rate.
- Targets must be more aggressive (goal is the
same). - Targets for individual schools may vary
- States can implement a Safe Harbor provision
39The following slides represent ODE leanings on
the required policy decisions. These are
subject to revision.
40How to Meet on Graduation
- Schools/subgroups can meet on AYP
- Graduation through
- Meeting the target for the four-year rate based
on a two-year average or the most recent year or - Decreasing the of students not graduating by
10 from one year to the next or - Meeting the target for the Extended rate based
on a two-year average or the most recent year
41Graduation Goal and Targets
- Graduation Goal of 90
- Targets with a 2 increase from current targets
to the goal in 2020-21.
42Minimum Cell Size
- ODE recommends the minimum be a total cohort size
of 20 (an average of 10 for each year). - Distribution of Single Year Cohort Size
- Less than 10 29 schools
- 10 to 19 30 schools
- 20 to 39 48 schools
- 40 or more 208
- -- These schools are typically rated on
attendance.
43Subgroup Membership
- Race/Ethnicity
- Based on the last student record.
- Special Education, Economically Disadvantaged and
Limited English Proficient - Based on whether the student was classified in
these subgroups at any time during high school
44Contact Information
- For more information on the Growth Model or the
Report Card, contact - Jon Wiens at
- jon.wiens_at_state.or.us
- Phone 503 947-5764
- or visit the Growth Model Web Page at
- http//www.ode.state.or.us/search/page/?id2495