U.S Drought Highlights Since October 2005

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U.S Drought Highlights Since October 2005

• Douglas Le Comte
• NOAA/CPC
• 31st Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction
  Workshop
• October 23-27, 2006

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Outline

• Drought Highlights
• Major development in the Southwest last winter
• Plains states by summer
• Near-record monsoon rains relieve Southwest
  drought.
• Drought ForecastsHow are we doing?

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The West Flip-Flops Once Again!
Recent Cold Season (2005-06)
Previous Cold Season (2004-05)
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October vs April Drought
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Cold Season Precipitation
Driest Dec-Feb in AZ 2nd driest in NM and OK
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Snow Water Content April 2006
Less than 10!
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Streamflow Forecasts April 1, 2006
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Spring-Summer Changes
117 deg. F on 7/15 in Pierre SD
NM wettest Jun-Aug
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Peak Drought Past 12 Months
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Corn and Soybean Production
Corn Belt did fine again
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Drought Affected Cotton
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Major Drought Impacts to Crops in the
PlainsLesser in the Southeast

• Durum wheat production dropped 47 from last year
  (mainly North Dakota drought)
• Oat production down 18--lowest on record!
• Barley, down 15, lowest since 1936!
• Hard red winter wheat dropped 27 (mainly Kansas
  to Texas)
• Texas wheat down 65! (over 200 mil.) sorghum
  down 26
• Oklahoma sorghum dropped 35 wheat down 36
• Alabama corn dropped 52
• Corn in Texas and South Dakota dropped 20
• Texas peanuts dropped 43 upland cotton down 36

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Record Modern-Day Fire Season
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Lake McConaughy NE June 2006
Man standing
Water should Be up to the boom
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Changes to October 17, 2006
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Global Vegetation ImageOct 15, 2006
Devastating drought
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The Seasonal Drought Outlooks
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Selected Good-Performing Drought Outlook Tools

• 2-Week Soil Moisture
• Ensemble CCA and CAS
• UKMET Season
• NCDC Palmer Drought Amelioration Probability Maps

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Better Summer Forecast Tools in 2006
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How Are We Doing?
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Latched on to S Plains Drought Early December
2005 and SW Drought mid-Dec
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Keyed in on N Plains Development early July 2006
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Time Series of Verification Scores
Mean Pct Correct 51 (was 59 last year) Mean
Improvement over Persistence 14 (was 14)
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Seasonal Scores

• Forecasts made in NDJ 63
• FMA 45
• MJJ 46
• ASO 48

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Verification Scores vs CPC LL Precipitation
Outlooks

• Correlation of Drought Outlook Scores with HSS
  for CPC 3-month precipitation outlooks .33 (34
  Outlooks)
• When Drought Outlook Scores exceed 60, mean HSS
  5
• When Drought Outlook Scores less than 40, mean
  HSS -1
• Better seasonal precipitation forecasts would
  help! (Mean HSS 3)

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Selected Future Improvements

• NCEP-CPC-EMC-CTB-NLDAS-NASA collaboration effort
  to support NIDIS
• Collaboration with Univ. of WA and Princeton to
  improve soil moisture monitoring and forecasting
• Improved multi-model seasonal forecasts
• Research leading to improved understanding of the
  underlying causes of drought (e.g., air-sea and
  ground-air interactions)

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Parting Wisdom

• Just as in being chased by a bear, when you only
  need to be faster than the next guy, in
  forecasting, you dont have to be right all the
  time, just better than the competition.
• D. Le Comte

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Potential Water Supplies Off to a Good Start
Colorado Front Range
Loveland Basin Oct. 22, 2006 Elev. 11900 ft.