1
1 decade down. 9 decades to go Coping with
climate, water and weather-related hazards and
disasters in the 21st century

• Michael H. Glantz
• University of Colorado
• Boulder, Colorado
• www.ccb-boulder.org
• December 8, 2012

Natural disaster word collage Source
JimKimmartin.com

• Ritsumeikan Asia Pacific University APU)
• Beppu City, Oita, Japan

2
But first

• Some facts

3
SCEP 1970

• Focused on global atmospheric problems
• Global problems do not necessarily need global
  solutions
• In the foreseeable future advanced industrial
  societies will probably have to carry the major
  burden of remedial action

Mans Impact on the Environment
Study of Critical Environmental Problems (SCEP)
M.I.T. Press
4
Humans and the Climate System
Society is a part of the climate system and not
separate from it.
Climate Change Impacts on the United States,
USGCRP, 2000
5
Physical changes are to be expected
More Extremes are Expected but where?
2012 Report
The climate is always changing
6
Societal changes are also to be expected
Shanghai Harbor
1988
7
President, Rockefeller FoundationNew York Times
(November 2, 2012)

• In coming years, 60 percent of the worlds
  population increase will be in Asian cities.
• Of the cities that contain the largest numbers of
  people exposed to the risks of flooding caused by
  climate change, 5 of the top 10 are Asian.
• By 2070, it will be 9 of the top 10.

Mumbai floods, 2005
8
4 Laws of Ecology

• Everything is connected to everything else.
• Everything has to go somewhere or there is
  no such place as away.
• Everything is always changing.
• There is no such thing as a free lunch.

Citarum River, Indonesia
rekkerd.org/img/random/ citarum_pollution.jpg
Could these also be the 4 Laws of Natural
Disaster in the 21st Century?
9
?
?
10
A weighty analogysomething to keep in mind

• You cant go home again
• You cant recover the past
• Return to an earlier CO2 level will not
  necessarily return to the climate once witnessed
  at that level.
• The amount of CO2 already in the SUBJECTS US to
  global warming for the rest of the 21ST century.

A loss of weight analogy
11
How climate is viewed
By scientists Climate data, forecasts, time series, probability, measurements, and the like By the public Impacts droughts, floods, fires, heat waves, infectious disease outbreaks, famines, foreseeability
12
The future is arriving earlier than expected

• 2020 is the new 2050

• Disappearing Arctic sea ice
• Melting Glaciers worldwide
• Warming global temperature
• Ecosystems moving upslope
• Rising sea level

13
The 21st centurys first decade Some
attention-grabbing disasters

• 2000 Mozambican floods
• 2003 European heat wave
• 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami
• 2005 Hurricane Katrina
• 2005 Mumbai Floods
• 2008 Myanmar Cyclone Nargis
• 2008 Chinas winter storms
• 2009 Australias Black Sunday bushfires
• 2010 Russian heat wave
• 2010 Pakistans Mega Floods

European Heat Wave, 2003
14
The second decade (so far)Some climate, water
and weather-related disasters
News Headline

• 2011 East Japan Great Tsunami
• 2011 Thailand floods
• 2012 Super Hurricane Sandy 2012 Afghanistan
  avalanches
• 2012 US devastating drought
• 2012 Super Typhoo Bopha
• 2011/12 Rapid melting of Arctic sea ice
• Will 2012 top 2011 for record weather disasters?

December 3, 2012 Historic 'Super Typhoon'
Bopha Smashes Into Philippines 'Most southerly
typhoon ever recorded in the Western Pacific'
expected to bring 'life-threatening impacts'
15
Disaster-related News Headlines

Thailand flood reaches Bangkok
Thousands flee as typhoon blows into Philippines
Will 2012 top 2011 for record weather disasters?
(Reuters)
2011 Worst Year for Disasters in History...2012
Will be Worse! Are You Ready? ?
Megastorms Could Drown Massive Portions of
California
The Tornadoes Of 2011 The Worst Natural Disaster
In The United States Since Hurricane Katrina
2011, The Disaster Year for Earthquakes, Tsunamis
and Other Natural Disasters
Under the Weather The disasters just keep piling
up
A USA year for the record books 2011 (NOAA)
US coastal cities in danger as sea levels rise
faster than expected, study warns
Under the Weather The disasters just keep piling
up
16
A Teachable Moment Super Hurricane Sandy,
October 2012

• Step-like change in the US in views about climate
  change and the need to take action on adaptation
• A reaffirmation that all coastal cities are
  vulnerable, rich and poor cities alike
• Climate change and urbanization rates and
  enhancing the risk to extremes
• Highlighted the value of soft measures for
  coping with a changing climate effective
  institutional coordination, rapid and accurate
  information and timely decision-making,
  front-end coordination, preparedness measures,
  cooperation of government agencies, effective
  monitoring and early warning.
• Media attention focused on Sandys impacts on the
  USA and not on the impacts in the Caribbean
  (Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, the Bahamas). WHY?
• A local storm can have global implications (NYC
  is a global financial center)

Every disastrous extreme event is a teachable
moment identifies lessons for future
consideration.
17
Governments are not ready for consequences of
global warming

• Response to Hurricane Sandy in 2012 is a major
  success, when compared to responses in 2005 to
  Hurricane Katrina (Americas costliest natural
  disaster)
• Government responses for Sandy were
• faster, more efficient, more effective, better
  executed (so far), more equitable, more caring of
  victims needs, top-down and bottom up approaches
  were taken, etc.

What a difference a lesson and leadership make!
18
Learning by AnalogyEast Japans Great Tsunami
provides lessons for coping with climate change

• Quick recovery is sometimes impossible. Be
  prepared for it.
• Bad situations can continue for a long time.
• Prepare many people to cope with disasters
  because victims are the real first responders.
• Uncertaintybased risk management is necessary.
• We cannot predict exactly when, where and how a
  disaster will occur, but can prepare for
  uncertainties.
• Preparation of many risk scenarios may be
  useless.
• Too many risk response manuals act as societal
  tranquilizers
• Keep records in more than one locality (e.g.,
  medical information).

19
Super Hurricane Sandy Response was it as good
as it gets?

• Pre-election government response guaranteed the
  best possible response
• Reliable forecast of the hurricane
• Credible warning a few days in advance
• Responses to Sandy show resilience of
  infrastructure, of government, of people, of
  neighborhoods
• Attentive political leaders at all levels
• Opposing political ideologies were put aside
• Response was not perfect but perhaps as good as
  it could be

20
An example of foreseeability An increase in
Superstorms
21
The focus today is on adaptation
But, should it be?
22
Disaster risk reduction and climate change
adaptation Linking or Sinking
Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Coping with existing hazards Disaster preparedness Short term focus getting back to normal, better or different Identifies prevention needs Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) Concerned with future hazards Sustainable development Mid- to long term focus Does not deal with prevention

• Each has its own bureaucracy
• Each has its own time dimension
• Each has its own own vocabulary
• Each has its own concepts
• BUT, both worry about DISASTERS

DRR
CCA
23
Definitions of Resilience3 variations of a
concept

• The ability of the community to withstand the
  consequences of an incident.?
• The power of recovery to original shape and size
  after removal of the strain which caused the
  deformation.
• The capacity to adapt without harm.

24
We can disagree on what resilience is, But we
know what it isnt !

• Dynamite
• fishing
• in the
• Philippines

25
Introducing Resilient Adaptation(Luthar, 2003,
CUP)

• A process that is a flexible, incremental
  approach
• to adjusting to foreseeable adverse impacts
• of an uncertain changing climate in the future.

26
Whats needed for effective resilient adaptation

• Early Warning systems
• Foreseeability
• Expect surprises
• Improvization
• Precautionary Principle
• A focus on Plan A

27
Heightened value of early warning systems
28
ForeseeabilityOne form of warning

• Scientists rely on probabilities
• For a hazards occurrence
• For its potential impacts
• Use foreseeability
• A qualitative version of probability

29
Foster creative responsesimprovization and
innovation

• Improvization
• To invent, compose, or perform with little or no
  preparation
• Is is an intuitive process of structuring the
  unknown
• To perceive, understand and make sense of what is
  experienced
• Victims are the true first responders
• (ZORs ZERO ORDER RESPONDERS)

30
Expect climate, water and weather surprises

• Not all surprises are unexpectable.
• I was semi-surprised
• almost surprised
• hardly surprised
• a little surprised
• sort of surprised
• somewhat surprised

There are foreseeable surprises Hurricane
Katrina 2005, USA
31
Plan APrecautionary Principle

• Governments should not use the lack of full
  scientific information as a reason to postpone
  action to prevent serious irreversible
  environmental damage
• World Lake Vision Committee

FOCUS ON MITIGATION, REDUCE GHG EMISSIONS AND
ROLL BACK CO2 LEVELS
32
Planet Earth is now Global Warmings Ground zero
(b)
(c)
(a)
Seems people have chosen (a)
33
There are many Plans BGeo-engineering ideas
to stop Global Warming

• Mirrors in space
• Mimic volcanoes
• Brighten clouds
• Carbon sequestration
• Iron particles in ocean
• Global tree planting
• Go nuclear
• Go renewable energy

www.lightwatcher.com/ chemtrails/smoking_gun.html
34
While there are many Plans B
35
SMIC 1971

1. We recognize a real problem global temperature
   increase produced by mans injection of heat and
   CO2 may lead to dramatic reduction even
   elimination of Arctic sea ice.
2. This exercise would be fruitless if we did not
   believe that society would be rational when faced
   with a set of decisions that could govern the
   future habitability of our planet.

Inadvertent Climate Modification
Report of the Study of Mans Impact on Climate
(SMIC)
Edited by SMIC
M.I.T. Press