Water, Life and Civilisation

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Water, Life and Civilisation
A multi-disciplinary five-year project funded by
the Leverhulme Trust University of Reading
andCentre for British Research in the Levant
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Talk Outline

• Background to the project (study area, historical
  context, rainfall variability)
• Five sub-projects first year highlights
• Climate modelling
• Hydrological modelling
• Landscape reconstruction (palaeoenvironment
  studies)
• Human settlement (archaeological studies)
• Development studies

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Location of Study Areas

• Overall Aim To assess the impact of changes in
  the hydrological climate on past, present and
  future societies in the semi-arid regions of the
  Middle East and North Africa, with a case study
  of the Jordan Valley
• Goals
• Increase our understanding of past water
  availability and the consequent major changes in
  human settlement from 20,000 BC to 2100 AD
• Improve our ability to simulate present day
  hydrology in semi-arid regions of the MENA and to
  evaluate its impact on human activity
• Make predictions of future changes in water
  availability for the MENA region and hence the
  constraints under which social and economic
  development, particular agriculture must occur

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The relationship between past climates and human
activity

• Examples of interaction between climate and
  civilisation
• During the Younger Dryas (12,000 years BP) , cool
  arid conditions forced the Natufian community to
  transfer wild cereals to places where intentional
  cultivation was possible. This resulted in the
  development of some of the first agricultural
  communities
• The Akkadian empire of Mesopotamia collapsed
  around 2200 BC because of catastrophic drought
  and cooling

Coincidence of climatic and historical events in
Syria (from Weiss et al (2001) in Science)
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Warm wet
Mobile hunter-gatherers
Mobile hunter-gatherers, e.g. Ohalo 19,000 BC
First towns e.g. Ghuwyer 8000 BC
Late glacial interstadial
First farmers, e.g. WF16 9500 BC
Sedentary complex hunter-gatherers, e.g. El Wad
12,500 BC
Younger Dryas
Cold Dry
15,000 14,000 13,000
12,000 11,000 10,000
9000 8000 Years BC
Cold dry
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Water and Life in Jordan the contemporary
context

• Jordan has the ninth fastest growing population
  in the world - currently standing at 3.05 pa -
  with its population being set to double between
  1998 and 2020. The urban population is growing
  at 3.66 and the ave. family size is 8.59
• At the same time, Jordan is considered to be one
  of the 10 poorest countries worldwide in respect
  of water resources
• The available renewable water resources on an
  annual per capita basis have fallen from 3600
  m3/capita/annum in 1946 to lt160 m3/c/a in 2002
• Although Jordan has 98 per cent connectivity to
  its drinking water distribution network, in 1987
  a programme of rationing was introduced and water
  is supplied 1 or 2 times per week in most areas

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The relationship between projects
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The relationship between projects
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Climate Modelling

• Aims
• To improve our understanding of the climate
  variability in the MENA region
• To produce climate scenarios for past, present
  and future as inputs to the other projects

April 2004
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• Methodology
• Gauge and satellite rainfall data will be used to
  describe the present day variability
• ERA-40 and HadiSST data will be used to
  investigate teleconnections
• Time slice experiments for the historical periods
  of interest
• HiGEM model will be used to provide boundary
  conditions for a regional model

Percentage change in annual precipitation between
2080 and the present day - comparison between
regional and global climate models (Figure
provided by the Hadley Centre regional modelling
group)
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Climate modelling - Year 1

• Collating and quality controlling rainfall data
  from the MENA region
• Setting up the regional model and starting test
  integrations
• Study of climate variability in the MENA region
  from seasonal - decadal time scales

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Precipitation Data availability

• GPCP (Gauge and satellite product - 1986 -
  present day 1 x 1 resolution)
• CMAP/Xie-Arkin data (Satellite estimates from
  1979-2000 2.5 x 2.5 resolution)
• Gauge data from the Global Historical climatology
  network (1850 - 1995)
• Manley data (1850 - 2000 Jordan and Israel only)

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Rainfall variability seasonal - decadal time
scales
Seasonal cycle
Seasonal cycle in rainfall in box shown
Interannual variability
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Large Scale teleconnections
Wet - Dry

• High precip in the Middle East associated with
  low precip in Europe. Coherent in Middle East
• Possible associations between rainfall and
  Atlantic/Pacific SST. Nothing much in Med
• Relationship between high SLP in Europe and high
  rainfall in Middle East. No obvious relationship
  with local SLP

Precip
SST
SLP
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Regional Modeling possible domains

• Large domain
• require supercomputing and more development
• Less driven by boundary conditions

• Very small domain
• quick to run on a pc
• Danger of interrupting weather systems unless we
  at least extend over the Mediterranean

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Regional Modeling - first results small domain

• RCM gets the seasonal cycle quite well (despite
  the funny domain)
• Rainy events generally less intense, but about
  the right frequency
• Further work needed to refine the domain and
  resolve a few technical problems, then we will
  run a full control run with reanalysis data

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Large Domain regional model/ERA-40 comparison for
1979-1980
Model driven by reanalysis data at boundaries
Reanalysis data
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The relationship between projects
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Hydrological Modelling

• Predict the spatial and temporal variations in
  water flow regime and salinity of the Jordan
  River system at each of the study dates in light
  of the climatic, environmental and land use
  factors
• Methodology
• The INCA process-based hydrological model will be
  used
• GCM data will provide the inputs to the
  hydrological model for past and future time
  periods
• Palaeoenvironment studies will be used to
  construct land-use scenarios for the past

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Methodology
21,000 BC
NOW
2100 AD
GLOBAL
Climate Prediction Global Regional
Paleo-climate Simulations Global Regional
REGIONAL Middle East and North Africa
Paleo-environments Landscapes, hydrology and
salinity
Observed Rainfall River Flows
Archaeology Human Settlement Water Supply
LOCAL Jordan Valley
Hydrology, land use and salinity Modelling
Future water availability, food security and
societal impacts
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Hydrological modelling year 1

• Acquisition and processing of data
• Identification of study areas
• Development of hydrological models
• Application of a hydrological model to Jawa

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Jawa

• Helms (1991) argues for two brief periods of
  occupation at Jawa
• 1 Early Bronze Age 1 3600-3000 BC
• 2 Middle Bronze Age 2 2000 BC
• However
• Dating based upon pottery typology.
• There are no radiometric dates.
• The duration of occupation is unclear.
• Hydrological model will
• test feasibility of this hypothesis

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Basic Hydrological Model for Jawa

• Rainfall

Evapotranspiration
Evaporation Water Use
Wadi Ragil
Evaporation Water Use (people, animals,
irrigation)
Pond
Pond
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Stochastic Models---allow for uncertainty in
inputs, parameters, ambient conditions, climate
Catchment Flows
Water Use per Person
Rainfall
Pond Volume
MODEL

Monte Carlo Analysis
Population
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Jawa Population Levels for varying storage
Volumes and Rainfall
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Jawa model - conclusions

• The 3 stages of Jawa pond development suggests
  differing pop levels.
• Upper limit for Jawa of about 6000 people given
  rainfall and storage volumes. Testing Helms
  Hypothesis.
• Irrigation areas to small to have supported such
  a population so importing food etc
• Assumptions about how the field were irrigated
  can have big implications on sustainable
  population levels.
• Population levels very sensitive to rainfall
  patterns
• Changing climate would have had a devastating
  effect on population levels.

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The relationship between projects
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Palaeoenvironmental Studies

• Reconstruct prehistoric, historic and modern
  landscapes to interpret river flow regimes,
  sedimentary deposition and vegetation history of
  the Jordan valley area
• The palaeoenvironmental evidence will be used to
  verify the climate and hydrological models (and
  to refine them)

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Using published data and new field studies,
making use of sediment and pollen records with
ultra-high resolution dating, via advanced
isotope techniques. GIS will be utilised to
reconstruct the patterns of landscape change in
space and time. The impact of these landscape
changes on the climate will be assessed using the
regional model.
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Palaeoenvironment studies - Year 1

• Compiled and published a review of the
  palaeoclimate in the Levant from 25,000 - 5000 BP
• Started field work to develop a
  palaeoenvironmental reconstruction of the Beidha
  area

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Review of regional palaeoclimates
Robinson, S.A., Black, S., Sellwood, B. W. and
Valdes, P.J. (In press). A review of
palaeoclimates in the Levant and Eastern
Mediterranean from 25,000 to 5,000 years BP
setting the environmental background for the
evolution of human civilization. (Quaternary
Science Reviews).
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Beidha case study
8,450 /- 270 cal. B.P.
8,790 /- 350 cal. B.P.
10,550 /- 800 cal. B.P.
Younger Dryas ?
14,555 /- 790 cal. B.P.
16,550 /- 850 cal. B.P.
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Spring active
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Conclusions from Beidha site study

• The O isotopes of carbonate from sediments
  accumulated at the Beidha site show a clear
  climatic signal through the Younger Dryas event.
• Grain size analyses of the sediments suggests the
  Beidha site was situated on an old dune and had
  significant, later, incursions of fluvial
  material added to the upper sequences.
• Travertine (Tufa) deposits close to the Beidha
  site date from 16.5 ka (cal) B.P to 8.5 ka (cal)
  B.P. indicating significant spring activity was
  present during this period.

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The relationship between projects
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Archaeological Studies

• Investigate
• History of human settlement within the Jordan
  valley
• Methods used to manage water supply
• Changes in human health and diet
• Archaeaological evidence will be interpreted in
  the light of the palaeoclimate studies to address
  the question of how climate has influenced human
  civilisation in the past

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Archaeology Year 1 highlights
2005 essentially a planning year and provision of
support to hydrology

• Three projects
• Region site based studies in Jordan Valley
• Closely related to hydrological modelling
• Improving chronology of human settlement
• Small scale archaeological field work
• 2. Botanical indictors for irrigation
• Crop growing experiments
• Archaeobotanical studies
• 3. Palaeo health diet
• Palaeopathological and isotope studies of human
  and animal skeletal material
• Also GIS project relevant to hydrology,
  palaeoenvironmental and archaeological projects

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1. Regional study of human settlement in Jordan
Valley GIS analysis of multi-period site
distributions using JADIS data base and input
from meteorological and hydrological modelling
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1. Site specific studies the hydrological
context of human settlement
Case studies of the following Jawa Early
Bronze Age Wadi Faynan Early Neolithic, Late
Prehistoric, Roman Byzantine Jerash Roman
Byzantine Beidha Natufian Neolithic Bab edh
Dhra Bronze Age Ghassul Chalcolithic Pella
Bronze Age, Roman, Byzantine Petra Roman
Byzantine Safi - Islamic
1. The archaeological evidence for human
settlement and water usage management 2.
Hydrological modelling 3. Archaeological
fieldwork/analysis 4. Socio-economic
interpretation
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2. Botanical indicators for irrigation 1. Test
the following claims by crop growing
experiments Rosen Weiner 1994 The form and
structure of phytoliths inform about past
irrigation practices? Araus Febrero 1997 The
carbon isotope composition of grain inform about
past irrigation practices 2. Undertake phytolith
and grain isotope analysis of archaeobotanical
mayerial from the key sites in the Jordan Valley
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3. Palaeo health diet studies
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Priority case studies for 2006
Jerash
Beidha
Ghassul
Safi
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The relationship between projects
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Development Studies

• Understand the current and future interactions
  between industrial, agricultural and tourism
  development and their impact on water usage and
  supply
• Predictions from the climate-hydrological model
  will be used to evaluate new schemes for water
  management being introduced by the Jordanian
  government

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Overview of the proposed structure of the
sub-project in development studies
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Development studies - Year 1

• Preliminary field work including semi-structured
  interviews with Jordanians
• Collating and analysing data on water usage in
  Jordan
• Case study of Aquaba

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A study of development and tourism in Aqaba

• Although only accounting for a relatively low
  proportion of total water consumption, tourism is
  increasingly significant in Jordan, currently
  accounting for 10 per cent of Jordanian GDP.
• Aqaba in the south is growing rapidly as a
  tourist resort and now accounts for approximately
  14 per cent of total tourist bedsThe NWMP
  estimated that tourist consumption of water in
  Aqaba had increased from 0.44 MCM/a (22 of
  tourist consumption in 1996) to 0.74 MCM/a (41
  of the national total)
• Reused wastewater is featuring prominently in the
  development of Aqaba as a prime tourist resort.
  In particular, it is being used for landscaping
  and for industry. RIAL (Reuse for Industry,
  Agriculture and Landscaping), funded by USAID,
  has one of its four projects in Aqaba. Work on
  public perceptions plus focus groups is scheduled
  to be carried out according to RIAL
• The distribution of water in Aqaba is handled by
  a public company, and so offers an alternative
  model

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WLC first year

• First year spent gathering data, developing
  models and carrying out preliminary field work
  and case studies for all the projects
• A lot more collaboration than originally
  expected! Particularly between the
  palaeoenvironmental and hydrological projects
• We are recruiting two post-docs if any of you
  want a job

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Next year

• Meteorology RCM simulation of current climate
  finish climate variability study start palaeo
  work
• Hydrology acquire more data develop detailed
  hydrological models for study areas compare
  results with palaeoenvironment studies
• Palaeoenvironments sample collection in the
  case study areas further isotope analysis
  palaeoenvironmental recontruction of hydrology
  case study areas
• Archaeology recruit post-docs and carry out
  field work at the specified sites harvest crop
  experiment and analyse results
• Development field work including soil samples
  critique the Jordanian National Water Plan
  prepare review of water use and supply for Jordan
  as a whole

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For further information http//www.waterlifecivil
isation.org Or contact me (emily_at_met.reading.ac.u
k)
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Current weather 1 - NAO index
NAO index this season (http//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.go
v/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html)
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Current weather 2 - surface temperature anomalies
Nov 2005 surface air temperature (NCEP reanalysis)
Dec 2005 surface air temperature (NCEP reanalysis)
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Current weather 3 - precipitation anomalies
Nov 2005 precipitation (GPCC)
Dec 2005 precipitation (GPCC)
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Current weather 4
Animation of 3 hourly satellite infrared data
27th October - 31st December 2005
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Monthly Data availability 2
Global History Climatology Network Database
origin GHCN V2 (The Global Historical
Climatology Network) Total number of stations in
global database 20,590 Number of stations in
MENA region 409 Number of stations
in Jordan 11 Earliest
reading in MENA region
1837 Earliest reading in Jordan
1923
http//homepage.ntlworld.com/iain.nc.russell/wlc/