Washington Office Update

1
Washington Office Update

• Some thoughts on the FCAMMS, budget for FY07, and
  next steps

2
The Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of
Meteorology and Smoke (FCAMMS)

• Working since 2002
• Funded under the National Fire Plan and RD
  funding base
• Five consortia (EAMC, SHRMC, RMC/Fire Chemistry,
  PNMC, CANSAC/PSW)
• Big science leap, big risk, big pay-off

3
The Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of
Meteorology and Smoke (FCAMMS)

• Why a big leap?
• First supercomputing science development platform
  
• First real application of rapid-prototyping
  science application/ technology transfer
  systematically across stations
• First real opportunity for a fire atmosphere
  orientation

4
The Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of
Meteorology and Smoke (FCAMMS)

• Why a big risk?
• This is USDA FS and we havent been a
  supercomputing outfit (Departmental IRM
  constraints, no trained personnel, no boxes)
• First real application of rapid-prototyping
  science application/ technology transfer
  systematically across stations
• Fire atmosphere orientation is very different
  than a fuels management or fire weather
  orientation

5
The Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of
Meteorology and Smoke (FCAMMS)

• Why a big pay-off?
• Allowing linkage of mesoscale to fine scale fire
  weather phenomena and combustion (getting the big
  consistent with the small)
• Addressing smoke with appropriate tools (models
  and techniques that match or exceed regulatory
  expectations)
• But the really BIG pivot is to be able to
  understand (predict?) life-threatening/property-th
  reatening/resource-threatening fire events

6
The Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of
Meteorology and Smoke (FCAMMS)

• Have the FCAMMS been successful?
• FS RD now perhaps the recognized expert for
  smoke modeling (BSR, SHRMC 4S, WRF Chem, EAMC
  Partnership CMAQ)
• Huge, objectively measured, progress made on
  advancing fire weather, danger/behavior science
• On the verge of moving fire behavior simulation
  far past our current sixties science
• An ability to increase research partnerships and
  productivity while producing products for users
  on a daily basis

7
The Fire Consortia for Advanced Modeling of
Meteorology and Smoke (FCAMMS)

• A prototype of a new way of doing the business of
  USDA Forest Service science?
• Cross station / blurred jurisdiction
• Multi-year yet task-based
• Citizen-scientist orientation
• Partnership friendly (not pay for play only)
• Unique-niche, multi-faceted product delivery
• Risky and nimble

8
Next big challenges for the FCAMMS

• New RD Strategic Program Area structure
• Water and Air
• Fire
• Invasive Species
• Resources Management and Use
• Wildlife and Fish
• Recreation

gt FCAMMS - EAMC
9
Next big challenges for the FCAMMS

• The new generation fire model (understanding
  fire physics from ignition past smoldering)
• Fire danger for all fuels for all
  eco-environments and atmospheres
• Smoke as a bio-physical phenomena
• Fire climate state (perturbed return intervals,
  intensity, synergism)

10
So whats next?

• FY07 funding levels for the National Fire Plan
  are likely to be about the same as FY06
• RD priorities in fire (air quality and fire
  meteorology in the mix in two strategic program
  areas)
• JFSP funding on target so far
• BUT

11
So whats next?

• EAMC has a BIG challenge because it is in east
• EAMC needs to further market the relevancy of its
  non-smoke products
• Air quality regulations are changing but
  understanding of exactly what these changes may
  mean and what the RD role is still perhaps
  only moderate

12
So whats next?

• My humble advice
• Be seen being smarter while sweating through
  many long meetings.
• Products more complex things made easier, things
  nobody else can or will do, quick responsive
  modifications, relevancy quality, increasing
  web and mobile presence

13
Eastern Area Modeling Consortia

• I hope to visit the EAMC website in 2035.
• (or at least at Warren, Jay, Xindis retirement
  parties)

14
Thanks for allowing me to come!

• Allen R. Riebau, PhD.
• National Program Leader for Atmospheric Sciences
  Research
• USDA Forest Service
• Washington, DC,
• ariebau_at_fs.fed.us